How many seats will Reform get do you think or is a total………

Labour landslide?

 

1 Clacton on Sea if they are lucky

 

It'll probably be 3 or 4.

Farage will win, and there'll probably be a small number of the ex Red Wall constituencies that voted Tory last time but will change next month as Sunak is too brown for them. But they won't vote Lab/Lib/Green as "they're all the same".

I'll say 4.

 

Between 3 & 5.

 

I think they’ll get a lot of votes but will barely get any seats. I can see them finishing second in a lot of places

 

I reckon 4 or 5 and I'll be thoroughly ashamed if any of them are in Barnsley.

 

one would be too many.

 

I hope they win none - realistically Nigel will canter home and I suspect will be one of perhaps half a dozen or so.

They will win at least one in south or West Yorkshire, at least one in the north east and the same in the midlands.

They will finish second in many more seats than they win too; perhaps top three in popular vote.

 

Three or four, I reckon. That could take the tories out for good - just hoping that Big Nige isn't one of them.

 

I'd be gutted if i lived in Penistone, Don valley or Rother valley. Be interesting to see how those 3 fare at the election.

Re Don valley
Anyone besides as well as me never heard of the Isle of Axholme.
As the saying goes, Wear a fox hat

Further to the completion of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, the seat will be subject to boundary changes which will include gain of the Isle of Axholme in the Borough of North Lincolnshire and the loss of Conisbrough to the new constituency of Rawmarsh and Conisbrough. As a consequence, it will be renamed Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme, to be first contested at the 2024 general election.

 

Be different if Farage is the leader of the opposition and the Tory party at hidden away.

 

2-3 weeks ago I'd have said they'd be lucky to get 1, now it's probably 6-7 but if I'm being honest they could shock us all a bit and pick up a few more as the Tories continue to struggle and could very well pick up around 10-15+ winning them marginally. There's a lot of traditional Tories shifting to the right for Farage and a fair amount of traditional labour supporters that have also shifted that way theses past few years. There are also a growing number of youngsters who've grown up being politically lost and sucked into fringe groups that worship the likes of Andrew Tate, Carl Benjamin, Tommy 10 names etc, and seemingly feel at home under Farage's brand of politics.

 

Farage is leveraging to be the leader of the next right wing opposition, whether that be Reform or the Tories. He doesn't care.

 

I think he's playing the long game. If he plays the election like a violin he might, just might, sneak second in the popular vote. Then in 2029 and before he gets to say "we're the real opposition" and has a lot of credibility when saying it. Then 2029 becomes terrifying. Could also be what Mansfield Red says though, and he's angling at winning his seat and potentially defecting to the Tories and worming his way into leadership there.

He's smelling Tory blood right now though and he knows this election is his chance to go for the jugular after stepping aside for them in 2019.

 

Agreed, one way or another the parties will merge during the next parliament. Either Reform MPs (I reckon they'll get about 4 or 5) will join the tories with the promise of Farage as leader or the tories furthest to the right will join Reform and the other couple will join the Lib Dems or Labour. It's going to be messy either way.

My hope is just that reform split the vote enough to allow other parties to get seats in various places.

 

The one in Clacton should be top priority for tactical voting - even if it means voting Tory - to keep Farridge out.

Carol Vordaman's web site should be renamed "Stop the Tories unless it means allowing a Reform UK Shitbag in Dot Vote".

 

80

 

Barnsley is in very real danger of this happening imo

 

We really need this next Labour government to deliver, because the populists will be snapping at their heals promising unicorns to the gullible if they don’t.

 

As long as David ***** doesn't get elected I'm not really bothered.