If - and I say IF we win tonight and go second

Please PLEASE let's not get carried away, raise our expectations, expect the unrealistic and then get all upset if and when we fall back.</p>

We made a brief appearance at number 2 in the 99/00 season, only to go back behind Man C and Ipswich when they cashed in their games in hand.</p>

And while I appreciate you have to have the points, rather than games in hand, let's remember that Brentford will have 3 and Colchester 2.</p>

I reckon it will be a head above the water appearance and then perhaps a fall back. If we can maintain the momentum though, we could get back there.</p>

Projected finishings on recent form would suggest we can finish second behind Southend, but we need to keep up the pace.</p>

Whatever happens, we are within striking distance now - and we are closer than we have been since sinking into this division 4 years ago.</p>

Keep backing the lads - they need us.  Good luck tonight. Yoo Reds!!!!</p>

 

Brentford won't have 3 in hand of us as they are also playing tonight

 

Did a projection in Excel this morning - my top six finishing positions are....

(Too much time on my hands obviously)

1 Barnsley 86
2 Southend 85
3 Brentford 82
4 Colchester 81
5 Huddersfield 80
6 Swansea 78

 

i like that!

 

Achievable, VERY achievable! n/t

 

Two is still enough.

 

In case you didn't see it...........

This is a great little tool. Just fill it in up to where you like.

http://grimsbytown.rivals.net/default.asp?sid=909&p=2&stid=8404179

 

my attempt at table shows...

Team-------------P---GD--Pts
Colchester ------46--16--93
Brentford -------46--17--88
Southend --------46--21--84
Huddersfield ----46--13--83
Barnsley --------46--17--80
Swansea ---------46--22--78
Oldham ----------46--00--68
Chesterfield ----46--07--63
Doncaster -------46--01--54


Put me on a downer that...

But, nothing is predictable, we can still do 2nd. COOOOOOME OOOOOOONN YOOOOOOOOOU REEEEEEEEDS!!!!

 

I've just seen a pig flying past

and it's flying in the face of the stats!!!</p>

in the 267 12 game sequences(not across season breaks) since the premiership</p>

we have achieved a maximum of 27 pts only 3 times -a probability of 0.011</p>

the middle value is 16 pts</p>

the most frequent IS 12 </p>

the mean (average) value is 12.7</p>

 

i did a projection this morning

and the super red tykes win all the rest of the games and finish top

P GD PTS
1 Southend 35 21 64
2 Huddersfield 35 13 60
3 Colchester 33 16 59
4 Swansea 35 22 58
5 Barnsley 34 17 58
6 Brentford 32 17 57

we finish with 94 points

1 super red tykes 46 94
2 Southend 46 64
3 Huddersfield 46 60
4 Colchester 46 59
5 Swansea 46 58
6 Brentford 46 57

 

yes but....

we have been relegated twice in those stats. which to be honest will **** up anyone who is trying to justify anything with stats. so it will be obvious that this would happen.

Apart from bassett, we have been **** point wise in every season.

try doing the same analysis, just using bassett and this season. Which would be a more fair analysis, as they are the only 2 seasons which could really be in comparrison.

 

i'm not too sure about these statistics you keep coming up with

i worked out that there is a 1 in 4 chance that the super red tykes will get promoted.

ads

 

I you apply last 8 form to the table.........

......we finish 3rd on goal difference.

A win tonight would put us top of the form table and change the projected final position to 2nd.

 

and if you apply last 7

We would finish second on 85, behind Southend's 86.</p>

And, as you say, a win tonight would strengthen that even further.</p>

However, if the wheels fell off and we lost everything from now until the end of the season, we'd finish on 58, which is unplaced.</p>

Stats eh - who'd have 'em.</p>

 

but unfortunately.....

statistics are like that-if you only include the ones you like then almost anything is &quot;provable&quot;-all my figures show is that on AVERAGE we -and I guess most teams in this League-hardly ever perform to that leveL

 

Its a fact... that 70% of stats

are made up....</p>

</p>



beleive it or not, that was given in a presentation I was listening to by a respectable and well clued up person. (mmmm)</p>

 

oops

Forgot to only multiply by 11.

We'd still be behind Colchester the way I worked it.

Still ne' mind eh?. We're going to finish 2nd anyway.

 

Unless...

you were involved in the Wimbledon era</p>

ie straight from conference to top league.</p>

and you have probably answered my post below (ie made up stats) by saying if you apply what you want.</p>

But I am just trying to say that they should be in context...</p>

Not saying you are wrong with your average, that is fair enough.  But its also unfair to say its highly unlikely to hit a 27 point run, when included in those stats are the relegation seasons.  because its more likely now this year, than it was say, the season we cam down.</p>



Arguement aside, I do appreciate your Stats when you post as they often make interesting read and back up some arguements and provide a different angle to whats &quot;going on&quot;.  But IMHO, I think this one is just a tad unfair, sorry to disagree on this on though mate.</p>

 

not wishing to burst the bubble-BLOWN A FUSE-must recalculate!!

 

no need to apologise-it's only information NT