interestingly Davey's best spell by far was.................

as caretaker manager ! maybe we shouldn't have made it permanent!!</p>

<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="300" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="width: 97px; height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 26px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3">P</font></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 26px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> W</font></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 26px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3">D</font></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 30px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3">L</font></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 41px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3">PTS</font></td><td class="xl68" style="width: 57px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3">ppg</font></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 93px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; height: 20px; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3">caretaker</font></td><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> 8 </font></td><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> 3</font></td><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> 2</font></td><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> 3</font></td><td class="xl69" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> 11</font></td><td class="xl70" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">1.38</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">20</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">8</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">0</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">12</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">24</font></td><td class="xl67" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">1.20</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">46</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">14</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">13</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">19</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">55</font></td><td class="xl67" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">1.20</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td><td class="xl66" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">5</font></td><td class="xl66" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">1</font></td><td class="xl66" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">0</font></td><td class="xl66" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">4</font></td><td class="xl66" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">3</font></td><td class="xl67" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">0.60</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Calibri" size="3" /></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">71</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">23</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">13</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">35</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">82</font></td><td class="xl67" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8" align="right"><font face="Calibri" size="3">1.15</font></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td></tr><tr style="height: 20px"><td class="xl65" style="height: 20px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"> </td><td class="xl65" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"></td></tr></tbody></table></p>

 

Isn't that what always happens when you get a change of management ? A short lived period of success then back to 'normal'

 

actually not borne out by research........

<h3><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#339933">Does Changing the Manager Improve a Team's Performance? </font></h3> <h4><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#339933">by Steven Dobson, University of Hull </font></h4>

Football managers, like other managers, are responsible for firm (club) performance. They are responsible for hiring and firing (buying and selling players through dealings in the transfer market) and for maximising the performance of their players by effective organisation of training and through their powers of motivation. Managers directly affect team performance by their determination of how individual players are used during a game. Managers select the players in the starting line up and their positions, and make decisions about team tactics and the timing of substitutions. These decisions require an understanding of the game, an ability to assess player performance in a variety of situations, and a knowledge of the opposing team's strengths and weaknesses. The skill of the manager determines the effectiveness with which these choices are made. </p>

Most football followers are aware of the chronic insecurity that surrounds the job of the football manager. In 1977, Johnny Giles (the then manager of West Bromwich Albion) observed famously that &quot;the only certain thing for managers is the sack&quot;, while in 1997, a BBC television documentary on the role of the football manager was entitled jokingly The Sack Race. In few, if any, other types of organisation is one individual held so directly, visibly and publicly accountable for collective successes and failures on a weekly, or even daily basis. It is interesting to ask not only why the football manager's job tenure tends to be so insecure, but also why it is frequently possible for a manager adjudged unsuccessful in one post to find another comparable position elsewhere, often with minimal delay or difficulty. This is in sharp contrast to many other managerial professions, in which a single sacking can ruin a promising career, and multiple sackings would make an individual unemployable. </p>

One interpretation is that for a team experiencing a run of bad results, a change of manager may provide the stimulus required to break the sequence. In other words, the change itself may have a beneficial psychological and motivational effect on players, even if objectively the attributes of the incoming manager are no different from those of his predecessor. If so, then there is no reason why an outgoing manager who has fallen victim to the 'time for a change' argument at one club should not prove attractive elsewhere. </p>

<font size="3" color="#ff0000">This article, however, casts doubt on this idea, and suggests that clubs undergoing a short term crisis may recover more effectively if they do not terminate their manager's position than if they do.</font> </p>

In other words, managerial change can have a harmful effect on team performance immediately following a managerial termination. This conclusion is based on research into the relationship between team performance and managerial change over the period 1972 to 1993. The research analyses the results of all Football League (and Premier League) matches played between the 1972-73 and 1992-93 seasons inclusive, and includes details of all managerial terminations which took place during this period. In total, the database contains information on 42,624 individual match results and 821 managerial spells, of which 633 both started and ended within the 21 year observation period. </p>

Short term spells contributed by caretaker managers between the departure of a manager and the arrival of his 'permanent' successor are not included in the analysis. Neither does the research distinguish between voluntary and involuntary terminations, because the information needed to do so accurately is not in the public domain. For example, even in cases where a manager is reported as having resigned, the decision may well have been prompted by means of a 'resign or be sacked' ultimatum from the Chairman or Board of Directors. </p>

How might managerial change affect team performance, either for better or for worse, in the short term (say, 6, 12 or 18 matches after the change of manager)? The two competing schools of thought are: (i) that termination might cause a short term deterioration because of the disruptive effect of managerial change on team strategy and tactics; or (ii) that the removal of an unsuccessful or unpopular manager may galvanise players into contributing greater effort by raising morale, thereby creating a short (and perhaps a long) term improvement. Popular sentiment would probably tend towards the latter view; the database allows us to investigate whether or not there is any supporting factual evidence. </p>

Direct comparisons of results before and after managerial terminations appears to confirm the impression gained from 'casual observation' that the performance of teams whose managers leave does tend to improve immediately afterwards. However, this does not necessarily mean that the improvement is due to the managerial change itself. The reason for this lies in the fact that many clubs do not change their manager even after a very poor run of results. So, if we only look at the results of the clubs who make a managerial change we are introducing what economists call 'sample bias' into the analysis. Instead, what we need to do is look at the improvement in results achieved by each team which terminated up to some identifiable point (say 6, 12 or 18 matches) before and after the point of termination. Then we compare this improvement with the corresponding improvement achieved by other teams with an identical (or very similar) pattern of results up to the same point in time at which they did not terminate their manager. Only if the average improvement recorded by the non-terminating group is below that of the former do we have convincing evidence of a beneficial short term effect arising from managerial termination. </p>

Using this procedure, we find that the average improvement recorded by the teams which did not terminate after the point of comparison is, in fact greater than that recorded by the teams which did terminate the manager, no matter whether the comparisons are made over 6, 12 or 18 matches before and after. In other words, the research shows that the average short term recovery in results produced by termination is not as great as that which would be expected in the normal course of events from a club experiencing comparable results which retains its manager. </p>

In conclusion, studying the performance and turnover of football managers allows unique and potentially valuable insights into the managerial function. This research has used a very large database of Football League results and managerial terminations to analyse team performance leading up to and following a change of manager. The research finds that, if anything, managerial change appears to have a harmful effect on team performance immediately following a termination. There is a natural tendency for results to improve (on average) after a poor run of results, simply because no team carries on losing forever. Teams which change managers as a result of a poor spell do appear to benefit from this effect. However, we also find that the same teams tend to recover less quickly than teams with a similar pattern of results leading up to some identifiable point in time at which they did not make a managerial change. In other words, although short-termism often appears to drive at least the timing, and perhaps the decision to terminate a manager's post, clubs which respond to short term pressures in this way do not (on average) tend to derive any short term benefit in terms of team performance. </p>

One avenue for future research would be to discover the factors that determine the duration of a managerial spell, once match results have been taken into account. For instance, we might think that the manager's 'human capital' (the level of his playing and managerial experience) is crucial in determining his survival prospects. One question we might ask is are the successful managers (the ones who are able to survive a poor run of results) typically the ones who played at the highest level or who have managed in the top flight? The answer to this sort of question would shed important light on the relationship between skill levels, training, on the job experience and manager survivability. </p> <h4>Notes</h4>

1. See Richard Audas, Stephen Dobson and John Goddard (1997) 'Team performance and managerial change in the English Football League', Economic Affairs Vol 17, No. 3, pp. 30-36. </p>

 

that is poor research though

"Short term spells contributed by caretaker managers between the departure of a manager and the arrival of his 'permanent' successor are not included in the analysis"