Hi Ian...a couple of questions you might be able to shed some light on. How EU enthusiastic do you feel Scotland is ?..I realise Scots endorsed Remain with 1.6m votes...which appears pretty convincing...but I noticed it was pretty much the same figure as voted Yes in the independence referendum....what's your view on the suggestion that a large percentage of those Scots were endorsing purely the Scot Nats as a party rather than the actual position on the EU ? The other thing I noticed was that it was a much lower turnout at 67% in the EU Ref to 85% in the independence Ref....that leaves just shy of 1m voters for whatever reason not galvanised by the EU vote..but galvanised by the independence vote . Would you agree Nicola Sturgeon will need...despite the tough talk now , to consider very carefully where that 1m votes will go ? especially when it seems unthinkable the EU would allow Scotland to somehow keep Sterling as a currency . To lose that vote would put SNP in a very difficult position...losing the vote for Independence and also losing the vote on the fall back position of a Constitutional change...that they are considering now , would consign the SNP to fighting for Scottish Govt. only , and relegating Independence to the history books...or at least for a generation . Do you think they will take that risk ?
Hi Sadbrewer, great post mate. All I can say is it was always obvious that Scotland would wish to remain as there was very little anti EU feelings here unlike the mass get the UK out campaign which was waged throughout England. I realise that the immigration problem was paramount to their argument but we in Scotland do not seem to have the same issues. Of course maybe its because we realise that there is no immigration problem but a problem with freedom of movement throughout the European Community. Something every country signed up for and has to face. Also Nicola did say Scotland wishes to remain within the EU and urged all SNP supporters to vote accordingly. This Sad brewer is the best I can give you as to why Scotland voted as it did. I totally agree with you on Nicola having to think carefully. I did say to my friends that I'd prefer her to take a step back, watch what is happening and take stock of everything before making any rash movements as no mistakes can be afforded. But she seems to want to strike while the iron is hot. Well good on her if it all goes to plan. If we decide on another Referendum for Independence and lost I really cannot see it happening again. You cannot keep going over the same old ground until you eventually get the result you want. But it looks very like we are going to take that risk. I did hear a BBC correspondent say that the question asked of us possibly could be, Do you want Scotland to remain within a UK under a Government which is in turmoil and rudderless and which is detached from the EU and all trade deals or Do you want Scotland to go it alone to remain a member of the EU and all the trade deals and security it can provide. BTW this is not word for word but as near as I can remember what the BBC correspondent said. For me a very strong argument to go for Independence and remain within the EU. I saw this a great read mate. Wondering what your view is. If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost. Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron. With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership. How? Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor. And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew. The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction. The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50? Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders? Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated. If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act. The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice. When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take. All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign (end) Whatever happens through all of this I just hope at the end of the day there is no bitterness from either side/country. We must still get on with each other otherwise we will both lose.
BBC radio news has just broadcast that 69% of Scots would favour another Inde Ref and that Nicola was now making plans for it. Like I said maybe a bit soon. I'd rather the dust was settled first just to see exactly what was happening but maybe those in power know something we have all yet to find out. Ach well let's go for it.
Hi Ian...certainly an interesting read...I think it boils down though to this paragraph If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act. I think whoever gets the job will trigger article 50..they as the Govt. have no option...no matter how awkward for them or how Cameron has outmanouvered them by his final lie in office (he clearly stated he would remain PM whatever the result) to not do it would ensure the final discreditation of The Party ...perhaps even the destruction of the party...many of us might welcome that..but I doubt it is a risk they will take . I have doubts that Scotland will break away as echoed above , but if it does so be it ..that will be the free will of the Scots...and also the unequivocal intention of Scottish National Party ...whether it be sooner or later...in the EU or out. As far as the Ireland situation goes little of real substance has changed other than a call by nationalists for a nationwide unification referendum...I very much doubt the Irish Republic would want to take in such a troublesome province , it's been their position for so many years to leave well alone I would doubt they would risk destabilising the status quo . The cross border trade issue could be solved ...even if it meant the UK government having to come to a deal that was significantly more beneficial to The Republic.
A lot gonna happen mate. I think there might very well be a general election called so as to try and get out this mess. A huge U Turn is certainly needed otherwise we enter into a huge unknown. Looks like Boris IDS Nigel and the rest may have bitten off more than they can chew. Hard to see the EU being very co operative towards us now.
Sadbrewer I'm expecting Sturgeon to play a good game on this as she seems to be the most competent politician around. I'm presuming she will vote against all reform based on the fact that the will of the Scottish people is to remain in the EU. I also expect her to negotiate with the EU on a similar basis. Do you think this strategy will be successful (regardless of a new ref on independence)?
Jimmy....I agree NS is clearly competent...it's difficult to know exactly what tack she will take...as I said above I think there is a serious risk though with the missing million votes coming back in to play... My personal view is very much for self determination and if Scots vote to go I'll be very sad , but will certainly wish them all the best.... I can't say any more other than wait and see .
