Odds and chances for tomorrow

I am assuming the Reds lineup will be something like:

Davies

Wabara Long Mawson White

Isgrove Hourihane Pearson Hammill

Winnall Toney

A different, and more experienced side emerging. And it's reasonable to assume the Reds' losing streak can't continue forever. The best odd available seem to be:

Oldham 19/10 (34.4%)
Barnsley 8/5 (38.4%)
Draw 12/5 (29.4%)

So remarkably, the bookies have a Reds win as favourite! I'm expecting a slightly better showing, but I wasn't expecting us to be favourites. Oldham have won three of their last six, whereas we......... oh dear!

At the prices, I'd say the value bet is the draw, which would at least represent us stopping the rot to some extent. Backing the draw always feels a little bit like going to a nun's wedding, so I'll not be tempted. But that looks the call to me.

 

Another shocking result. 1-0 home win.

 

Why will that be a shock to anyone?

 

I dont think he means it as a shock result, more shocking towards the fact that we're ***** and LJ will still have a job by the end of it

 

Because with out squad, we should be better than these.

Based on current form and shiteness, no shock there haha

 

Don't agree with the analysis, sorry. If you're offered nigh on 2/1 against for us losing an away league game, you take that all day long, almost regardless of the opposition. It would have made you a very rich man over the last ten years.

 

Absolutely fair point TM. I put this up as my opinion - that's all it is. If you're sure about us losing again tomorrow then you have a very sound bet. I tend to think the new recruits plus the law of averages may result in us at least avoiding defeat. But I don't consider the draw (the most likely outcome, in my view) or a BFC win as at sufficient odds to tempt me to bet. Good luck if you dabble though.

 

I just think it's less about tomorrow and more about long term value - if you keep backing us to lose away at those odds you'll always end up up in the end. Was the same thing the other way round between about 1995 and 2000 (excluding the Premier league season) - every time you got better than even money on us winning at home it was worth piling into...

 

If the home team were 2/1 to beat us in every one of our away games and you put £100 on the home team winning every time, last season you would have been £1,000 up at the end of the season. The season before £2,200 up. The season before that £700 up. The season before that £1,900 up. Etc.

Think you've got a point.

 

Unlikely you'd get that against a home team regularly though Jay. If you look at tomorrow's fixtures, two home teams in the Prem, one in the Championship and one in League One are at odds of 2/1 or greater. All of the remaining home teams are shorter than that. TM may well be right about Oldham because Barnsley's price doesn't reflect the awful run they're on. In fact, it may be that the bookies are inclined more to my view that the temporary recruits of the last two weeks may enable the Reds to avoid defeat. I'd want a longer price for it to be value though.

 

I'd go with

Davies

Bree, Mawson, Long, White

Pearson, Colace, Hourihane, Hammill

Jackson, Winnall

 

Agreed, so worth taking the bet whenever such odds come along. Not that I'll be doing that. I'd feel uncomfortable betting against Barnsley and I'm absolutely useless at this game anyway. Couldn't predict my way out of a paper bag.