One for the statistical experts

I posted this last year and I think Mossman answered it. "What are the odds of all 20 Premier League teams avoiding each other in a draw of 64 clubs" i.e. 20 balls marked A, 44 marked B, drawn out in pairs and all the A's miss each other. Well it's happened for the 2nd year in a row - so, "what are the odds of that happening twice?" Could this be an FA conspiracy?

 

I'm pretty sure it's fixed

Not sure how, but it is.
The draw followed the Huddersfield match on TV.
Chelsea were drawn out and they cut to the dressing room camera to gauge Huddersfield's reaction to the draw a second before their number was actually drawn!

 

RE: I'm pretty sure it's fixed

You cant say that blundering money wasting machine that is the FA is corrupt can you?

 

seem to remember it wasn't that unlikely-can't be bothered to sit down and work it out!

 

I think it is a very low chance 1 in 6889

I read on 3 websites that the odds of all premiership teams avoiding each other last season was 1 in 83 so I am assuming that is right. As this happened again this year then this years draw was also a one in 83 chance. The chance of it happening twice in a row would be one in 83 * 1 in 83 i think which give the result of one in 6889.

If I worked that out right then statistically you would have to have 6889 FA cup third round draws before you got all premiership teams facing lower league opposition two draws in a row.

either that or i'm talking crap again

 

If it was 1 in 89 first time then it is still 1 in 89

Its the same for all odds</p>

If you toss a coin there is a 50/50 chance of heads.</p>

If it lands heads then there is still a 50/50 chance of heads again.</p>

And so on ad infinitum.</p>

Still a bit fishy if you ask me.</p>

 

yeah it is still one in 83 of it happening this year

but if you were to say what are the odds of drawing all premiership teams againt lower league for the next two years then it would be 1 in 6889. Because you have to multiply the two together, once the first draw has been made though then it is back down to one in 83 of drawing them again.

 

OK 1 in 6889 if you had put a bet on b4 last years draw

assuming 1 in 83 is correct of course.