Orsen. Ascot

Thoughts on Royal Ascot?? Would love to see Mabs Cross nail the sprint for us northerners

 

OK, here we go. Usual boring warning: there is the possibility of rain. That brings the possibility of changing going, which is the enemy of punters. That said, it's Good at the moment, so let's work on that.

2.30 MUSTASHRY/LE BRIVIDO: The best piece of form here is Mustashry's win in the Lockinge at Newbury. He is a typical SMS late-developing type. That said, Le Brivido didn't get the best of runs in that race and I think he is a live danger to step forward and challenge Mustashry. I respect Laurens, but I'll be surprised if Barney Roy can come right back to his best, so it's split stakes on Mustashry and Le Brivido for me.
3.05 ARIZONA: Top on Timeform and Racing Post Ratings, he ran very fast at The Curragh last time. That was the most impressive 2yo performance I've seen all season and he is one of my bets of the meeting. As ever with two year olds, there are likely to be once-raced improvers lurking and Threat and Guildsman merit respect, Mark Johnston's Visinari doesn't run or I would have had to have had a saver on him. But as it stands, I expect a very impressive performance from Arizona.
3.40 BATTAASH: Has under-performed on occasions but he had wind surgery prior to his dazzling return at Haydock, and I expect him to be more consistent this season. If he is at his best today (no Lady Aurelia to take on this year) I expect him to be too good for Blue Point and the rest. Massive respect for Mabb's Cross, Yarmtyke, but an on-song Battaash will be too good. She's bang there if he isn't on top form.
4.20 PHOENIX OF SPAIN: I've puzzled over this race long and hard. True, Too Darn Hot wasn't at his best at York or The Curragh earlier this season, but POS was very close to both him and (2,000 Guineas winner) Magna Grecia as a two-year-old, and he is another to have benefitted from surgery. His win in the Irish 2,000 Guineas was better than TDH's best form performance and I don't think his win there was a fluke. I expect him to confirm the form.
5.00 NO BET: I can make a decent case in this for The Grand Visir, Snow Falcon, Time To Study, Couer De Lion and Fun Mac. So clearly a no bet race as far as I'm concerned. Willie Mullins has a great record in the race and puts Ryan Moore up on Buildmeupbuttercup, but I can't see that her form merits her position as favourite.
5.35 ELARQAM/MAGIC WAND: Elarqam is beautifully bred, and came right back to form at Goodwood last time out. He could go on to better things this year. But I have to save on Magic Wand because of her very extensive Group 1 experience, and Ryan Moore gives mention of her in his review of his mounts in his Betfair column. Split stakes again.

We'll see how those get on to notional £10 level stakes (stakes split where more than one selection). Good luck if you're playing!

 

Ok, as I can't be arsed with looking at the form today I'll go with your picks. Not sure we'll be in the course in time for the first race but I'll do the rest.
Any of these to go EW?

 

On the nose for me - split stakes in the first and last!

 

Thanks for the tips Orsen very useful. Lost the first obviously but lumped on the second with Arizona. The horse looked brilliant in the paddock.
Thought I'd got a place with Mabb's cross but was pipped.
Got a place with Battash in the third
Went with Blue Point in the next race as one of the group I was with had a sound tip and the price shortened dramatically so picked up a tidy win
Fourth race was the pick of the day. Circus Maximus won best turned out horse and looked sensational cantering down. Got in early at 14s
Nothing in the next and my phone died for the last and I couldn't remember what you had (Bloody shame as I couldn't pick one)
Even after getting put upon to buy the champagne by the bandstand singalong I still walked out with £460 profit.
I owe you a beer.

 

Glad Arizona came in RS, and also glad you swerved mine in the 3rd and 4th! Arizona was my only strike but I had 10's for yesterday after seeing him win at The Curragh. Looks tricky today with the rain coming down but my best would be Magical in the next (3.40). She shouldn't mind the going. I also like I Can Fly in the 4.20.

 

A second and a third yesterday and it's been tricky so far with the rain intervening. At the start of the week Arizona on Tuesday was one of my main hopes for the week. My other main advance fancy was Cross Counter in the Gold Cup (4.20). Stradivarius is a strong favourite but the softer ground is a question mark for him and Godolphin's stayer is still improving. It would be quite a story if he could add a Gold Cup to his Melbourne Cup win last November. He is 4/1 with most firms.

My other big fancy today is Fleeting (3.40). She has clearly the best form of any of these. She is only 13/8 but has proven her class with her excellent Oaks third, which is the best piece of form on offer here.

 

Ryan Moore absolutely butchered that ride on Fleeting.

 

He rode two winners on Day One but yesterday and today he is absolute pants. He was way out of his ground there.

Mr Dettori on the other hand is putting on a supershow!

 

On the evidence of Wednesday and Thursday Ryan Moore would get beat on Frankel at the moment. Nevertheless it's very difficult to find any reason to oppose him on Japan (3.05), Ten Sovereigns (3.40) and Hermosa (4.20). I also like Nayibeth for Wesley Ward (2.30), Desirous (5.00) and Baghdad (5.35). The ground is improving and the form ought to stack up today.

 

Call me superstitious or daft but i just can't see Ryan Moore banging three in on the spin. All three are live chances and I shouldn't be backing against them but feel compelled to do so.

It's his decision making. On Fleeting he had chance to come down the outside from 2 out but chose the brave mans route. He had to sit and suffer. When the gap did come it was too late.

Frankie Dettori is riding to seize the opportunity he isn't bothered if he gets beat as long as he's given his mount every chance of winning.

I like the look of the Wesley Ward horse in the first race. I think Pablo Escobar has a shout againat Japan based on form through Anthony Van Dyck. I like the look of Jash on last seasons second to Ten Sovereigns at Newmarket. Then Jubiloso could be anything so I'm taking Hermosa on with her.

Nonchalance is unexposed and won well last time although I'm not a huge Rob Havlin fan. Andrea Atzeni's beem quiet but I've backed Fuijara Prince everytime it's won so i'm sticking with it today.

(I was stung by deserting Biometric yesterday.)

 

And while we're on, Charlie Appleby has declared Blue Point to run again in tomorrow's Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes. I don't think Charlie would entertain running him if he didn't think he was fully recovered from his exertions on Tuesday. With no Battaash to beat this time, 5/2 looks like finding money in the street.

 

Invincible Army has been running extremely well and will be fresh. Although I think the boys in blue will have a good day tomorrow.

 

I don't think it's superstitious, SD. I think it's a fair response to the way he has ridden the last two days. He has three big chances there though. On a strict line, Pablo Escobar was slightly further behind AVD at Lingfield than Japan was at Epsom. I concede it's a different day and a different track though!

 

I was at York the day Invincible Army won there. He's improving, but both Timeform and Racing Post ratings give him 5 lbs to find. IA is improving, but Blue Point ran a career best himself on Tuesday and already has three Group One wins to his name.

 

You were right about Pablo Escobar. Hands up mate. I think after watching Japan dot up that someone's told Ryan Moore "your shortest route policy is bollax Ballydoyle want winners". Wish I'd let myself calm down after backing Fleeting and not tried to get him beat today.

He'll win on Ten Sovereigns and Hermosa now. Nowt no surer.

 

at Ascot for the first time today...UREDS! any tips to help us out? Thanks in advance!!

 

I've had a daft e/w bet on Wesley Wards horse in the first Jokers on Jack 66/1. It just seems odd that after finishing 7th at Newbury last time its being put in at Royal Ascot. Also Wesley Ward hasn't had a winner at this meeting this year it's his only declared runner.

 

SO PERFECT 3.05, for me and gud luk to ya all.

 

For what it's worth Gabsred, I'm with:

2.30 Lope Y Fernandez
3.05 Space Blues
3.40 Masar
4.20 BLUE POINT
5.00 Vanbrugh
5.35 Corelli