Reality........and Lee Johnson

I was told by a very good source on Saturday that the club’s wagebill has reduced from £4M to £2M. Folks may recall Ben Mansford saying when we were relegated that the drop in grade took us from being a £10M turnover business to being a £5M turnover business. This suggests that our wagebill takes up about 40% of our turnover, and is now back in kilter with our reduced income. It also suggests in very rough and ready terms that if left unchecked, our outgoings would have risked a £2M deficit per annum. If funded blindly by Mr Cryne, that loss would consume his entire wealth within 15 years (if reports of the same in the papers are to be believed). The consequences for himself and his family would be obvious. I can’t see any reason why Mr Cryne should donate his hard-earned money (in his sphere) to a football club. Nevertheless, he does appear to have done so over the years, and the club has always benefitted from the clout which his financial position carries.

When you look at it like that, it’s hardly surprising to hear Mr Cryne’s stated desire for the club to be self-sufficient. He will not live forever, and what will the club do when he’s gone? The foregoing considerations imply that our available resources to attract and retain players will necessarily be reduced. In order to make any progress therefore, like most other clubs BFC will be hoping to fish in calmer transfer market waters in the hope of unearthing a gem. Academy players, and lower league or even non-league players will be among those targeted in the hope of finding undiscovered talent, or talent that can be developed. Players like John Stones, Charlie Austin or Jamie Vardy at various stages of their careers have been some sort of example. It doesn’t take a genius to see though that they will be the exception, and that there is bound to be a high ‘tried and failed’ proportion. Another source will be those players who have already demonstrated their skills, but who have acquired a degree of baggage along the way. This can pay dividends if the player can be re-focused, but it carries the risks that the player will not reform, or that he will go elsewhere once he has re-established himself as marketable. So for every Hammill, there might be a Vaz Te or even a Connor Wilkinson.

It’s clear that Lee Johnson has been prepared to work within these constraints, and therefore to aid the club in working towards this position. Small wonder then, that the club’s Board have been prepared to stick with Lee despite results being fairly disastrous for a sizeable chunk of this season. The results since the beginning of December have been far more encouraging, and the entertainment level has picked up considerably. The Board have clearly allowed Lee a little flexibility in order to arrest the sequence of poor results, and whilst we are not fully out of the woods yet, things have picked up. Whilst I can’t claim to have been happy during the poor run of form, I do think that Lee Johnson’s resilience and determination have been remarkable during a difficult period for him and the club. He is invariably positive, cheerful and forward-looking when interviewed, and those that have met him invariably attest to his personable nature. If the club stood by him when things were particularly difficult, it’s a cast-iron bet that they will do so now things appear to be improving. Of course because of the nature of the loans and the short-term contracts, this is a drama that will continue to play out – no doubt with the cast of characters continuing to change fairly regularly. But Lee’s progress with the team holds out hope that his methods can bear fruit. And the Board are probably right to continue to point out that without solvency, we can have no club.

Whether we, as supporters continue to buy into this view of the world will probably depend on our motives for attending, and the entertainment on offer. I’m personally much more positive about that than I was before December.

 

I think that's a pretty smart assessment of the situation. I think the key 'failing' that can be levelled at the club is that their public statements over the last 18 months haven't stressed how necessary and important the cost cutting measures are. Not that I'd expect them to declare they're skint when they're looking for season ticket renewals.

I'm not one of these people with close contacts in the club, but like most I hear from people who claim to be "in the know" fairly regularly. One that stands out was a lad who knew Mason Holgate who told me in the summer that one of the reasons he wanted to leave was that the budget this season was going to be significantly reduced from last year. It meant that Mason wasn't offered a great deal to stay, but more importantly he felt it would damage his prospects of a move if he stayed another year, because he expected us to struggle. I remember saying "yeah, we don't expect a big budget," but the reply was we'd be surprised by how much it still needed cutting.

Of course with the turnover of players, it's hard to know whether that really is delivering a saving, but my guess would be that it in part explains the reliance on loans - i.e. we're getting really good deals on these players and have no other option, since permanent signings cost us a transfer fee, agent fee and a committed future spend that it sounds like PC doesn't want on the books.

We may well look back on this season as a nightmare performance wise, but maybe it's a necessary step towards a more sustainable model in the future. Here's hoping.

 

Good well reasoned posts, make a lot of sense of the situation of the last 18 months or so. Like yourselves I feel far more optimistic about the short term future of the club and hopefully from that the ability to stabilise into the future.

 

In my view, every club should be self sufficient and no income should come from an owner to keep it afloat or to compete.

Many clubs have gone down the road of short termism in the hope of getting promoted to then cover the investment made... and how many clubs have then tumbled towards admin and potential extinction following such folly.

So to be self sufficient is basic common sense in my view.

What doesn't make sense though, if self sufficiency is the ambition and has been for a long time, is to hamstring ourselves on resale values, poor contract negotiating tactics or delays and vast amounts of loans. Hopefully this is shifting now, but we've not yet seen evidence and the Stones transfer was certainly far from being evidence to show competence of our board.

Its extremely common now that loans also come with a transfer fee, especially from premiership clubs. I dont have any info on a single dealing we've had, so it may well be there is goodwill and subsidy involved. But i'm sure some of the loans will have had some fee attached to them as well as significant wages.

It would also make sense to try and encourage our own youth through the academy and beyond. Either the talent just isnt there just yet.... or they are being blocked off and are unable to develop post academy.

if we're to get a foothold and ultimately get promoted (which i assume has to be the aim, though its hasnt been uttered), a blend of youth, experience, quality, resaleable assets and good loans will be involved.

I just think the balance we currently have doesn't allow us the best chance of doing that as yet. Hopefully it will do by next season and the 3rd transfer window.

 

I feel that the reason for unloading most of our squad when we went down was widely misinterpreted by the fans. It was mainly seen as punishment levied against players who had failed us in the higher league, and there is no doubts that many of those players had failed us. However, the main reason they were dispensed with was that the club could not afford their wages. SCMP was 70% of turnover in that first season, to allow for a period of restructuring. This year SCMP dropped to 60% of turnover, suggesting that the wages budget for players whose wages are covered by SCMP is currently £3m based upon £5m turnover, and that it had reduced by £500k as compared to last season

Of course, we have the cost of running the academy, a cost that many in our league do not have to bear, and the cost of players under 21 who have been raised by the club. Both of these costs are excluded from SCMP calculation. So my SCMP figure may still reconcile with the one quoted by you, I do not know. The important point is that Lee Johnson has had to manage the club through this very difficult transition period. It has been a period when the quality of player at the club has undoubtedly fallen, because lower wages brings with it reduced quality. It has been a period when we have seen lots of short term contracts and short term loans of young players, not because there is a bias within the clubs policy towards youth and short term deals. More because there has been a bias within club policy towards cheap deals to enable it to comply with SCMP. It has been a period when Johnson has bourn the brunt of the criticism for the situation that the club has had to face, and because of the mistaken perception amongst fans of a misguided policy transfer policy.

However, I would hope that the club has now been stabilised, and if the fans are prepared stay with it, I hope to see a start being made soon on the rebuilding process. It should be stated that football clubs and their fans have a love/hate relationship, but the only way to guarantee success is to continue supporting, even through periods when your loyalty is tested and you really do not feel like it. Walking away from the club simply reduces turnover and wages, and as we have seen, lower wages means reduced quality of player.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^this, wi knobs on^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

Excellent post

 

is the acedemy cost effective? would we we better placed funnelling the money we do have towards the first team or is that cutting off our noses etc?

 

A thoughtful post, as ever Red Rain. I think our views have moved closer together (or maybe mine has just moved towards yours!) I think that speaking to a club legend on Saturday brought some of these issues into sharper focus for me. I still have some unease about the 'unconditional support' idea however. That defeats the market, does it not? Happily, the last month or so suggests that we may have returned to a more entertaining stage of our development. As an aside, did you attend York University?

 

I have been reading posts on this forum for years and more regularly in the last year or so. Even daring to sign up and make a few posts over the last few months.

I have to say that Orsen Kaht's original post and all the subsequent replies on this thread are the best I have seen.

Well thought out, reasoned, realistic and in proportion.

This has been a difficult season to endure for us all but some green shoots of recovery are starting to show.

It seems, and let's hope that the club and those at the helm actually do have more of an idea what they are doing than has often been thought recently and slowly but surely the future will become brighter for Barnsley Football Club.

 

Only clever people attended university when I was a lad, so unfortunately, I missed out.

 

I have a number of rules in my rule book concerning postings on the BBS. They are as follows:

1. Assume somebody who is paid for doing something knows more about it than I do as an amateur.
2. Assume someone who is dealing with a situation on a day to day basis has more information about a subject than I do. as an onlooker.
3. Assume that the people in power have reasons for making their decisions that I am not privy to.
4. Assume the people who earn their living from the game are not idiots or incompetents.
5. Try to understand the reasoning and thought processes that were used by the decision-makers in arriving at their decision.
6. Having understood the logic that they applied in making their decision, check all other possible courses of action to see if any other decision was indeed possible.
7. Only engage with people on this BBS who you have respect for. By that I do not mean those who you agree with. Debating an issue with someone you agree with is never going to open up any new lines of thought. I mean debate with those who you believe can endure the heat of a debate without taking offense.

The problem for many contributors on this forum is that they think that all professionals are all idiots, and that they have a far better understanding of the issues, the game and the management of a football club than they do. Fortunately, I have no misplaced confidence in my knowledge or ability, which is why I always give the benefit of any doubt to those in positions of power. Some would argue that this makes me a happy-clapper, but it really does not bother me, because I know that I am not, as anyone who has read a Minority Report will know that.

I have no interest in childish name calling, or for people who think that they know me because of what I post or the manner in which I post it. I hold long term views which do not change on a match by match basis based upon the latest result, because they were honed after a long period of thought and consideration. If you are interested in debate, I would recommend these rules to you.

 

Good thread, I wish more posters would make well reasoned posts. I couldn't care less what someone's opinion is on the internet and who I've never met, I much prefer a well reasoned argument that's informative and challenges what I think.

I've said it before that i think loans are much more cost effective than permanent signings and I particularly support our 'try before you buy' policy. We can't take the risk of signing an experienced player on a 3 year contract when he may turn out to be a dud. Particularly when we're trying to reduce our wage bill.
However, I'm hoping that from next season we'll have reduced our wage bill enough such that we can begin to speculate to accumulate again. I want to see more signings like Hourihane, Scowen and Winnall. Young players on which we've done our research, acquired relatively cheaply, who have performed well for us and have significant re-sale value. They are very good value of money and are fan favourites. The current loanees are very good value for money but are less appealing to the fans.

 

In between all the hoo har of the last 24 hours or so (I include myself in that, because I do love acting the wally at times, I hate being so serious 24/7, it's just not me), but arr, in between all that, there is this thread. And what a damn fine thread it is. A superb illustration of how the BBS works. And, discusses a topic I will no doubt refer to in my next podcast tomorrow evening.

I do believe that both this sort of thread, and threads where some of us can act like wallies are just as welcome if the BBS is to survive. It's the trolling, the winding up of others, getting personal or trying to prove folk wrong, those sort of threads that aren't welcome.


Everyone in this thread? Nice one. More of this please.

 

Agree with that KFC...but as for (and I'm not having a go)

One that stands out was a lad who knew Mason Holgate who told me in the summer that one of the reasons he wanted to leave was that the budget this season was going to be significantly reduced from last year. It meant that Mason wasn't offered a great deal to stay, but more importantly he felt it would damage his prospects of a move if he stayed another year, because he expected us to struggle. I remember saying "yeah, we don't expect a big budget," but the reply was we'd be surprised by how much it still needed cutting.

I don't know Mason, but I have doubts that an 18yr old footballer has any of the skills or experience of business (or football) needed to make such an assessment, he may have been reciting what an agent told him, but let's be honest agents don't have any football clubs interest at heart..or even footballers in many cases..just a cash cow to be bought and sold as often as possible for the commission, he may learn the hard way, like so many others seeking moves away from clubs where they are doing well.
Despite all the moaning..and I understand that when we're not doing well..If Cryne needs to cut the budget I am prepared to trust his judgement, I won't like it, we all would like us to sign the best players available, but I believe he is a safe pair of hands, and as long as he stays we will not drop into the financial meltdowns of so many.