Relegation Odds, Remaining Fixtures and Prediction

I've been having a look at what the bookies reckon will happen and for once they actually think we'll stay up. We're 4th favourite to go down now. They've decided Bristol City are as good as down already and the final two relegation spots will be contested by 5 teams. In order of where the bookies reckon we'll finish:

Blackburn 11/4 47pts
Derby (H)
Huddersfield (H)
Watford (A)
Millwall (A)
Palace (A)
Birmingham (H)

Wolves 5/2 48pts
Huddersfield (H)
Hull (H)
Charlton (A)
Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)

Barnsley 12/5 49pts
Charlton (H)
Derby (H)
Forest (A)
Hull (H)
Huddersfield (A)

Huddersfield 25/18 48pts
Wolves (A)
Blackburn (A)
Millwall (H)
Bristol City (A)
Barnsley (H)

Peterborough 4/5 47pts
Watford (H)
Brighton (H)
Derby (A)
Wednesday (H)
Palace (A)

You can get Blackpool 14/1, Wednesday 20/1 and Leeds 20/1 but their fixtures aren't too difficult and I can't be bothered to type them out.

We've got very similar fixtures to Wolves and we're in similar form. We've both still got to play Hudders, Charlton and Hull and we've also both got a very difficult away game and a very winnable home game.

Blackburn have a game in hand and have 3 winnable home games so I think their reasonable home form this season should see them safe unless their awful form continues.

Peterborough have Watford (H), Brighton (H) and Palace (A) like we've had recently but I can't see them picking up nearly as many points as we did. Wednesday at home will be a tough game which leaves away at Derby. I reckon they the bookies have got it right and they'll finish second bottom.

Huddersfield have 3 away games against struggling teams, just the time when you don't want to play them as we found out at Hillsborough. I reckon they'll need to win at least two of those to have a chance of staying up. Hopefully they'll already be down by the time we play them but I can't see us needed to win there to stay up.

I predict that the final day of the season will see us not quite safe, but if we lose and results go our way, we'll still stay up. A draw will definitely be enough.

If Huddersfield beat Blackburn and us, Blackburn and Peterborough will go down. If Huddersfield lose to Blackburn, Huddersfield and Peterborough will go down.
Thoughts?

 

we just need to concentrate on us and we'l be fine. Its in our own hands. Best bit is a lot of them have to play each other so they cant all win like they have been.

 

Very complicated. I'm taking it a match at a time.

 

ABU - Anyone But Us

 

I see that point as a bit of a double edged sword. The other angle is that teams at the bottom are guaranteed to pick up some more points before the season's end.

 

might stick £500 on us to go down then it wont feel as bad if we do

 

How freaky that, with 5 to play, two of the teams in the mix have the same opponents to play in 3 of those games.

My view on Blackburn is that, they have Derby and Huddersfield next. Derby are in decent form and with Blackburn's awful form, that is a very losable game. Huddersfield will be fighting for their lives. looking at the remaining 3, if they lose these next 2 they are gone for sure. Pressure's really on for them now.

Agree with you about Peterborough - they surely can't have enough left to survive. For me that means Blackburn are the clear ones to watch now because if it goes against them, by this time next week it could be starting to look pretty clear cut.

 

IMO We have the harder run in. Just as well we seem to be up for the challenge.

As pointed out some of our rivals are due to play each other and they all can't win.

Our last game away at Huddersfield could turn out be a decider.

 

I like the way everyone thinks Leeds won't go down including their fans - keep thinking that

 

You're right Liverpool. Leeds don't play any of the bottom 5. They might very well not take any points out of their remaining games.

Shame. Dirty Leeds !!!

 

Blackburn owners have recalled Gary Bowyer + the Management team to Pune for "talks" - Apparently, the question "What about the 3 days training we lose?" came up. Surely, they won't sack another manager? - They're doomed Mr Mainwaring

 

My fear for us is complacency (fans more than players perhaps). Charlton and Derby at home are games we could lose and easily could fail to take 6 points from.

Equally I could see Peterboro winning 9 points from those games. We beat Brighton and Watford and the form of most of the top 6 is pretty woeful, partly down to the resurgence of bottom half teams. And remember they beat Cardiff.

Wolves and Blackburn are the two for me who are in real danger, partly because they feel they should be fancied to stay up, their players are better paid and they've just come down from the Prem...all a bit cosy and will fall short of our workrate.

And looking at Huddersfields games, they have the lower placed teams which means they face a lot of risk by losing to them, but a huge amount of gain if they win.

I can see us going to final day and needing something... but I hope thats not the case.

We are capable of getting something against Hull and Forest, so even if we don't get 4 pts from the next 2 home games, we're still capable of reaching safety... but it's definitely not cut and dried.

 

Listening to the interview after the Cardiff game Flicker and the players are saying that they won't get complacent. What surprises me is that they're even thinking about complacently. We're right in the mire and I don't think it should even have entered their minds that the job is half done. I suppose it's good to have confidence but I really hope we don't slip up against Charlton and Derby. If we don't win either of those then you'd have to say we're favourites for the drop. I'd take 4 points but 6 would see us stay up.

I think everyone's next two games are pivotal. They are arguable everyone's easiest fixtures and it also sees Blackburn play Huddersfield. I think it could be that the winner of that will stay up while the loser could go down.

 

I just hope it doesn't come down to the last day away at Huddersfield. I might have to be put into an induced coma for the day because my nerves won't take it if I go.

 

One half at a time, me.