Small dilemma

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board ARCHIVE' started by jedstar, May 16, 2016.

  1. jedstar

    jedstar Well-Known Member

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    I'm currently in rural Australia a few hundred miles north of Melbourne, it's £270 for a return flight to Sydney from the local airport and I wouldn't mind spending a few days there.

    With the additional costs, hotels and getting around etc, the total cost will approach £500 meaning I'll not be able to afford to go to Wembley when I get back - should we get there, and it'll be too late to decide after the second leg has been played?

    What would you do?


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  2. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    The fact you're asking means that if we were definitely going to Wembley then you'd go to Wembley, as if you preferred Sydney in any event there wouldn't be an issue. But on the other hand I expect missing out on a chance to see Sydney if we don't get to Wembley would be extra sickening. So let's look at the possible outcomes in terms of potential regret.

    On a scale of 1-100 how much would you regret not going to Sydney if you didn't book and then we didn't get to Wembley? Call this number X.

    On a scale of 1-100 how much would you regret not going to Wembley if you book Sydney and then we do make it? Call this number Y.

    Let's say we are 90% to make it to Wembley, which I imagine is a conservative estimate given the bookies' odds.

    If you book Sydney your expected regret is 0.9*Y.

    If you don't book and wait for a chance at Wembley your expected regret is 0.1*X.

    Which of those figures is bigger?
     
  3. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    Are you likely to ever get the chance to go to sydney again? if you are desperate to both could you put wembley on a credit card ect and pay it off at a later date? Also if we do make the final we could well still ending up losing out. How would you feel sat at Wembley if we have just lost in the final?
     
  4. jedstar

    jedstar Well-Known Member

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    To be honest I want to do both, I suppose Sydney will always be there but the chance to experience such a match doesn't come along that often.

    The daft thing is the return flight from Melbourne is only about £70, I'm not sure how they justify so much of an increase from the local airport on a small propeller plane, it's almost half of what it cost to get here from the UK


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  5. Mic

    Michael Noz Well-Known Member

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    I have a dilemma, too.

    I live in Sydney and I would love to go to the match at Wembley.

    In the past, I have gone back for the important games... however I had family and friends and made good five weeks holidays out of it.

    But this time I have seen all my people quite a lot this last couple of years. There have been weddings and births and I have been all over them.

    If I went back for the match it would be just for the match. I would do it all in a week and that is two long-haul flights and that is getting to me these days.

    If Bradford were there it would be more attractive. Millwall I don't like and I don't care either.

    I can watch the match in Sydney (but at 2.00am and on me own)

    I am feeling a guilty already because I may not go over.

    Being from Barnsley defines me over here. Everybody I know here, greets me and then asks how Barnsley are doing - and I don't watch them at Wembley? but who would I be doing this for...

    I think I will not go over... but I may miss something special... or we could lose at Wembley... Cardiff at Wembley was miserable. Ipswich was my best BFC day. Brum was special. Millenium was alright. I missed Bradford match.

    Thanks for your patience. I am writing this thread to help me think it through.

    Jedstar, if you wish, call me on 0412 250 508, maybe I can help you.
     

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