Not heard Baileys out? I think Ramage, Wiliiams and Cole are doubtful. Craine, Bree and Winnall all out.
Hmmm! Barnsley have won 3 of 9 (33%) at home and Donny 5 from 9 (55%) away. Yet Barnsley are best priced 7/5 (= 42%) while Donny are available at 2/1 (33%). And we have a weakened team? Tonight may call for a separation of heart and head!
Next bet for me is when we're overpriced on double chance vs Preston on Boxing Day. Definitely not a good bet tonight. Who you backing in the King George Orsenkaht?
At the moment, it would have to be Silviniaco Conti, RAC. There are about five horses within five pounds of him on Timeform, but he looked back to his best at Haydock, and I think his ability to thoroughly see out the three miles at Kempton might be telling - even if Cue Card were to return to his best. I'm no longer sure that Champagne Fever is going to get to the very top over fences and I think a fit SC holds the call over the likes of Dynaste, or the squadron of Phillip Hobbs horses waiting to take advantage of a slip up. One who could put the cat among the pigeons if he were to line up could be Simonsig (Timeform large 'P') but the latest vibes from Nicky weren't encouraging as to him making the gig. So Siviniaco for me, but I think I'll be waiting until nearer the time, given that he is only 3/1 best. Closer to hand, you can get combined odds of about 6/5 (3/1 and 4/1) for either Balder Succes or God's Own to win the Tingle Creek on Saturday, whereas I would nearly rate the prospect of one or t'other taking the race as a shade of odds on.
Bookies are cottoning on now. We can be had at better than 6/4 now (Bet365 go 31/20) and the 2/1 Donny has disappeared. Another stat is that Donny have only drawn one on the road, whereas we have only drawn one at home. So the stats would suggest a positive result either way.
Aye just had a look myself and Bet Victor who I find to be top price most often have pushed us out to 13/8 to win tonight. The value though is with Ladbrokes offering 3/5 on us not to win. Nearly evens for us to not get 3 points is brilliant odds.