Stats, Damned Stats and More Stats

Those who think we've turned a corner keep quoting that we're unbeaten in four matches or that we've only suffered one defeat in six after a very tough start. Conversely, those who feel we're sleepwalking to relegation turn it around to be one win in six despite playing matches deemed winnable by most fans.

What's the truth? How good or bad are we? Can the statistics offer any solace?

So far this season we have taken 11 points from 15 matches, a rate of 0.733 points per game. Looking back through the tables the minimum requirement for safety in a normal season is 42 points (2010/11), a rate of 0.913 points per game; Or 40 points (2011/12) where a team entering administration is involved, a rate of 0.869 points per game. We're falling short of these targets, set to lodge a total of 34 points if we continue at this rate. But these are the lowest figures, 47-50 points is a much more realistic target for safety.

But...

In 2013 we've played a total of 36 league games with a record of 11 wins, 12 draws and 13 losses. If we extend this ratio to 46 games (i.e. a full season) then our record would read 14 wins, 15 draws and 17 losses with a return of 57 points, a total that is unlikely to ever result in relegation.

In terms of goal scoring we appear to be doing okay having failed to score in just 6 of our 17 fixtures since August. However, one of those games was against a side from League 2. At the other end of the pitch we've managed just two clean sheets in the same period, again one being against a side from League 2.

For all we've been scoring regularly though, we're only averaging a little over a goal a game in the league and while there's no defined link between goals scored and relegation (Peterborough out-scored Hull last season) unless we can find the net more regularly we're going to struggle to take points, especially when we average two goals conceded each game. Those are the joint fourth worst and joint worst records in the division respectively.

Whether we survive or not it looks like being a long, hard season unless something (not necessarily the manager!) changes soon.

 

Statistics can be made to say anything. But that fact you quote from last season shows why we are in trouble. The difference between having a crap defence and a good one was the difference between relegation and promotion, even for a team that scored highly. When you have the most pourous defence in the league, like ours, AND you are not scoring goals at Peterborough's rate, then you are truly knackered.