The bookies have us 5 times more likely to stay up than Norwich.

</p>

So there.</p>

 

Looking at Betair....

Southampton are 1.1
Norwich are 1.53
We are 3.5
Forest are 8
Plymouth are 9.

All returns to a £1 stake.

I'd have a quid on Forest at the prices.

 

I don't really get it.

</p>

I was looking here -</p>

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/coca-cola-championship/relegation/best-odds/</p>

 

The bookies measure the odds purely on the current statistical position rather than who has still got to play who.

 

There the same odds....

Just betfair display them in decimal terms rather than fractional.

For your £1, you'd get £1.53 back if you get Norwich, and £3.50 us.

We're about 2 and a half times less likely to go down than they are.

 

Now I'm confused.

The way I looked at it -</p>

8/15 = 16/30</p>

5/2 = 75/30</p>

.....meaning a &pound;30 bet on us going down would mean you'd win &pound;75, almost 5 times as much as one on Norwich. AmI doing it all wrong?</p>

 

I've got it.

</p>

You're including the stake. I'm saying the winnings would be five times higher. Is that the wrong way to do it?</p>

 

RE: I've got it.

That's about right, although you've confused me now.

£30 on Norwich, and you end up with £46 in your pocket.
£30 on us, and you end up with £105.

You've got to include the stake, or it distorts the odds completely.

 

No they don't

They take into account as much as possible, very much including who has to play who

 

RE: No they don't

Well, as a regular scrutineer of betting markets, it doesn't appear to me that they do. Show me a market where the betting isn't in order of league position and I will believe you.

 

Rotherham?

Of course they do. They'll take into account away form, who's got what to play for, injuries etc.

They'll take into account as much as is physically possibly, to make the most amount of money.

 

RE: Rotherham?

Rotherham is a different matter as their league position is misleading. Unless a lot of money has been staked on a team in a lower league position, the betting is usually in league position order.

 

Bookmakers employ people who are called odds compilers, they will look at an given competition ie horserace, football, match or whatever they will take into consideration the current form, distance to cover, injuries, or anything that could have an influence on the result...they then make the market.... with the introduction of betfair and similar companies these are used as a guide to set prices... Where no form or information is available ie maiden horse races bookmakers are a little reticent to offer prices...because they have no information to base their judgements...this is where you can have an advantage over the bookies by having inside information as to how good horses are working at home... But the main rule is keep your money in your pocket unless you know something that the bookies dont..

 

RE: Rotherham?

They probably don't put much emphasis on who is playing who in the relegation market. Or not enough for it to skew the positions in the league table. It is just 6 points left to play for each team so the league positions are pretty much all that matters. And us and Norwich have both got top 6 sides left to play at home so we are in a similar position on that anyway.

 

the bookies know nowt my freind...WE ARE GOING DOWN

simple as!! /poo

 

Yebbut, yebbut....

</p>

...once you bring the stakes into line the amount the bookies are prepared to lose is x5.</p>

 

bookies will also follow the money - and can respond / change odds if lots of punters edge more money on a certain outcome.

- sometimes on skybet online - it well say "the odds have changed, click to update"

although on lower leagues there's never a great deal of money here so they won't lose much i they get it slightly wrong (due to their favouring mark up they have in the first place).


The only way to beat the bookies is to take something into consideration which they don't.

i.e.
on a low key lower league match where a key player (say top striker) suffers a late injury in midweek.
These odds probably won't change before the game.

 

Actually, its closer to twice as likely

It's actually quite easy to convert bookies odds into probabilities. The easiest way is to use the decimal odds and use 1 divided by this figure.

For example, the best available bookies odds on the Premiership title are:
Man Utd 1.14 (i.e. 1/7 in fractional odds)
Liverpool 7.5 (i.e. 13/2)
Chelsea 67 (i.e. 66/1)
Arsenal 751 (i.e. 750/1)

These convert to the following probabilities
Man Utd 87.7%
Liverpool 13.3%
Chelsea 1.5%
Arsenal 0.1%

The sum of these percentages is 102.7%. The amount above 100% is the 'over-round' and represents the bookies edge in the prices. The higher this figure, the less value there is for the punter. The 2.7% figure here is extremely low, and is nowhere near the figure you'd get from one bookmakers' odds. Its low here as the odds used in the calculation are the best prices available from different bookmakers.

It's a little bit more complicated for the relegation odds as there are two places to fill (i.e. two outcomes), so doing the above calculation should produce a sum close to 200%, not 100%.

The relegation odds from Bet365 are as follows (along with the probabilities these represent):
Southampton 1.05 (95.2%)
Norwich 1.4 (71.4%)
Barnsley 3.25 (30.8%)
Forest 7.5 (13.3%)
Plymouth 13 (7.7%)
Blackpool 67 (1.5%)
Derby 101 (1.0%)

The sum this time is 220.9%, so there's a 20.9% 'premium' over the true odds. We can't simply halve the figures in this case to get a true probability (i.e Southamption being 95.2% to occupy one of the two spots is not the same as saying they're 47.6% to go down) but we can use look at the overall proportion of the percentage figures to compare the differences between us and Norwich.

71.4%/30.8% = 2.3, so the bookies think Norwich are 2.3 times more likely to go down than we are.

 

So, in conclusion, The bookies have us 5 times more likely to stay up than Norwich.

</p>

That's whatI said in the first place.</p>

 

No they don't!!!!!!!!

They have us 2.3 times more likely to stay up than Norwich!