the folly of the overuse of (a small number) of statistics

<table style="border-collapse: collapse" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="211" border="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="width: 59px; height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="width: 222px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.00 sack AR</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.50 on course for the play offs</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">2.00 promotion here we come!</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.75 top play off spot</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.40 good old AR mid table</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.33 steady as she goes</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.14 should just stay up</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.38 phew mid table</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.22 just above bottom 3</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.10 relegation looms</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.00 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.00 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.92 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.86 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.80 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.94 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.88 dead cert relegation</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl25" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; height: 17px; background-color: transparent"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl23" style="border-right: #ece9d8; border-top: #ece9d8; border-left: #ece9d8; border-bottom: windowtext 0.5pt solid; background-color: transparent"><font face="Arial" size="2">0.83 enough's enough byebye AR</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3.00 Champions</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3.00 Champions</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">2.33 Champions</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">2.00 Champions</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.60 playoffs look good</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.33 settle for mid table</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">3</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.57 playoffs-appoint Davey now!</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.38 settle for mid table</font></td></tr><tr style="height: 17px"><td class="xl24" style="height: 17px; background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">0</font></td><td class="xl22" style="background-color: transparent; border: #ece9d8"><font face="Arial" size="2">1.22 just above bottom 3 will do</font></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

The appointment of a manager.............

</p>

........on his points average from his first few games in charge of his predecessor's squad is pure farce. WhatI findmost alarmingis the assumption that &quot;people like us&quot; are stupid enough tofall for it.</p>

 

what's more alarming is............

that I actually think he believes the figures show something meaningful

 

Isn't the 0.833 cut-off point in an article you posted a while back

An article about why sacking managers doesn't work?

 

83.7% of statistics are made up nt

 

Correction!!

It's 92.4% of statistics are made up!!

 

I would have been more open to agreein with the appointment of SD if GS had listed some of his successes with the academy (are there any?) or something else that's actually real instead of badges and points per game average. I actually do have respect for those qualifications as I assume that they are fairly difficult to achieve. However, the fact the first reason mentioned in Shepherd's letter is the ppg average, and the fact it's been mentioned repeatedly means the club are using that as their main reason for appointment. You simply cannot get a true judgement of a managerial performance from so few games IMHO. Heard on radio today that Man U recognise him as a good coach which means they were happy to loan out Eckersley, just hope he does well.

 

Extrapolating this Davey should be sacked before March.

Cool