The probability of us still being ahead of Swansea and Forest after Saturday is....

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board ARCHIVE' started by paul.d, Apr 27, 2006.

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  1. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    0.733 </p>



    ie nearly 3 in 4</p>
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  2. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    whereas the probability of us being in the playoffs is......(edited)

    0.134</p>

    ie slightly more than  than 2 in 15</p>
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  3. Merde Tete

    Merde Tete Well-Known Member

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    RE: whereas the probability of us being in the playoffs is......(edited)

    how do you figure that?
     
    Merde Tete, Apr 27, 2006
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  4. Hicksy

    Hicksy Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    RE: whereas the probability of us being in the playoffs is......(edited)

    Je ne comprend pas. You're saying the probability of us being in the playoffs after saturday is 13% ?
     
    Hicksy, Apr 27, 2006
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  5. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    I'm getting rusty-it's actually 0.147 as follows

    <font face="courier new,courier,monospace">Pr(Barnsley H win)    = 11/22</font></p>

    <font face="courier new,courier,monospace">Pr(Forest   H win)    = 14/22 Pr(H draw) = 4/22 Pr(H loss) = 4/22</font></p>

    <font face="courier new,courier,monospace">Pr(Swansea  H win)    = 11/22 Pr(H draw) = 8/22 Pr(H loss) = 3/22</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">so Pr(we win AND one or more of Forest and Swansea lose)       =</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">   Pr(BwFwSl)+Pr(BwFdSl)+Pr(BwFlSl)+Pr(BwFlSd)+Pr(BwFlSw)</font> =<font face="Courier New"> </font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">   11/22 x 14/22 x 3/22</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">+  11/22 x 4/22  x 3/22</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">+  11/22 x 4/22  x 3/22</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">+  11/22 x 4/22  x 8/22</font></p>

    <font face="Courier New">+  11/22 x 4/22  x 11/22  = 0.147</font></p>
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  6. Gue

    Guest Guest

    RE: I'm getting rusty-it's actually 0.147 as follows

    ********* hell.
     
    Guest, Apr 27, 2006
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  7. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    14.7 actually! see above nt
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  8. Terry Nutkins

    Terry Nutkins Well-Known Member

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    RE: I'm getting rusty-it's actually 0.147 as follows

    That is maths of biblical standards.</p>

    It's funny that it actually might mean summat.</p>
     
    Terry Nutkins, Apr 27, 2006
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  9. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    biblical? there's no 666 in there! nt
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  10. Hicksy

    Hicksy Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    There is actually

    You say that we have a 14.7% chance of being in the playoffs, so basically 15% chance.</p>

    Which means that we have a 1 in 6.66 chance.</p>
     
    Hicksy, Apr 27, 2006
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  11. Isl

    Isle of Wight Tyke Active Member

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    kin ell

    we have a maths off going on.
     
    Isle of Wight Tyke, Apr 27, 2006
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  12. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    well...........

    it's actually  0.14<u>6694214876033057851239</u> recurring so there's no 666 in it
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  13. Hicksy

    Hicksy Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    RE: well...........

    Anyway, I know figures don't lie, but we have more than a one in 6 chance of being in the playoffs. Summat ain't right
     
    Hicksy, Apr 27, 2006
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  14. Tyk

    Tyketical M'stroke New Member

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    RE: well...........

    He's on about actually qualifying after Saturday. ie not needing the last match.
     
    Tyketical M'stroke, Apr 27, 2006
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  15. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    well...........

    slightly less actually   0.147 &lt; 0.167  !!
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  16. pau

    paul.d Well-Known Member

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    correct -award yourself a pat on the back nt
     
    paul.d, Apr 27, 2006
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  17. Hicksy

    Hicksy Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Got ya. Knew it must have been me nt
     
    Hicksy, Apr 27, 2006
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  18. Journo Tyke

    Journo Tyke Well-Known Member

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    I get yer...

    Takes me back to my A-level days!
     
    Journo Tyke, Apr 27, 2006
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  19. Tyk

    Tyketical M'stroke New Member

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    RE: correct -award yourself a pat on the back nt

    Was well tutored in A level Maths by your you colleague Paul Salmons at Barnsley College. :)
     
    Tyketical M'stroke, Apr 27, 2006
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  20. driver

    driver New Member

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    RE: correct -award yourself a pat on the back nt

    One of the only things I can remember about a-level maths was that I was supposed to read a book &quot;how to lie with statistics&quot; by Huff. I didnt, and that might be why I cant remember any of the maths.
     
    driver, Apr 27, 2006
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