The Run in

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board ARCHIVE' started by redarmychris, Mar 23, 2015.

Page 1 of 2
  1. redarmychris

    redarmychris Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    6,807
    Likes Received:
    1,481
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Slow day at work. My predicted run in for those final 2 play off spots.


    5. Sheff Utd 37 16 10 11 51 43 8 58
    6. Peterborough 38 17 5 16 46 46 0 56
    7. Barnsley 38 16 7 15 51 50 1 55
    8. Rochdale 36 16 5 15 63 47 16 53
    9. Doncaster 38 14 11 13 48 48 0 53
    10.Fleetwood 38 14 10 14 39 43 -4 52
    11.Chesterfield 37 14 9 14 54 49 5 51
    12.Bradford 36 13 12 11 46 42 4 51

    Sheff Utd Fixtures

    Sheff Utd v S****horpe - 3 points
    Sheff Utd v Crewe - 3 points
    Barnsley v Sheff Utd - 0 points
    Sheff Utd v Doncaster - 1 point
    Oldham v Sheff Utd - 3 points
    Yeovil v Sheff Utd - 1 point
    Sheff Utd v Bradford - 1 point
    Orient v Sheff Utd - 1 point
    Sheff Utd v Chesterfield - 3 points

    Points Gained - 16/27
    Season Total - 74

    Peterborough Fixtures

    Peterborough v Coventry - 3 points
    S****horpe v Peterborough - 1 point
    Peterborough v Walsall - 3 points
    Swindon v Peterborough - 0 points
    Peterborough v Crewe - 3 points
    Barnsley v Peterborough - 0 points
    Peterborough v Crawley - 3 points
    Oldham v Peterborough - 3 points

    Points Gained - 16/24
    Season Total - 72

    Barnsley Fixtures

    Bristol City v Barnsley - 0 points
    Barnsley v Sheff Utd - 3 points
    Colchester v Barnsley - 1 point
    Barnsley v Chesterfield - 3 points
    Notts County v Barnsley - 1 points
    Barnsley v Peterborough - 3 points
    Bradford v Barnsley - 0 points
    Barnsley v Rochdale - 3 points

    Points Gained - 14/24
    Season Total - 69

    Rochdale Fixtures

    Oldham v Rochdale - 1 point
    Rochdale v Yeovil - 3 points
    Preston v Rochdale - 0 points
    Rochdale v Port Vale - 3 points
    Doncaster v Rochdale - 1 points
    Rochdale v Swindon - 1 points
    Gillingham v Rochdale - 1 point
    Rochdale v Leyton Orient - 3 points
    Rochdale v MK Dons - 1 point
    Barnsley v Rochdale - 0 points

    Points Gained - 14/30
    Season Total - 67

    Doncaster Fixtures

    MK Dons v Doncaster - 0 points
    Doncaster v Bradford - 3 points
    Sheff Utd v Doncaster - 1 points
    Doncaster v Rochdale - 1 points
    Leyton Orient v Doncaster - 1 point
    Doncaster v Fleetwood - 3 points
    Notts County v Doncaster - 3 points
    Doncaster v S****horpe - 3 points

    Points Gained - 15/24
    Season Total - 68

    Fleetwood Fixtures

    Fleetwood v Preston - 0 points
    Gillingham v Fleetwood - 1 point
    Fleetwood v Yeovil - 3 points
    Walsall v Fleetwood - 1 point
    Fleetwood v MK Dons - 1 point
    Doncaster v Fleetwood - 0 points
    Fleetwood v Colchester - 3 points
    Port Vale v Fleetwood - 3 points

    Points Gained - 12/24
    Season Total - 64

    Chesterfield Fixtures

    Chesterfield v Walsall - 3 points
    Bradford v Chesterfield - 0 points
    Yeovil v Chesterfield - 1 point
    Chesterfield v Crewe - 3 points
    Barnsley v Chesterfield - 0 points
    Chesterfield v Colchester - 3 points
    Oldham v Chesterfield - 3 points
    Chesterfield v Bristol City - 1 point
    Sheff Utd v Chesterfield - 0 points

    Points gained - 14/27
    Season Total - 65

    Bradford Fixtures

    Bradford v Oldham - 3 points
    Bradford v Chesterfield - 3 points
    Doncaster v Bradford - 0 points
    Bradford v Preston - 1 point
    Gillingham v Bradford - 3 points
    Bradford v Bristol City - 1 point
    Sheff Utd v Bradford - 1 point
    S****horpe v Bradford - 1 points
    Bradford v Barnsley - 3 points
    Crewe v Bradford - 3 points

    Points gained - 19/30
    Season Total - 70

    Predicted Table

    5. Sheff U 74
    6. Peterborough 72
    7. Bradford 70
    8. Barnsley 69
    9. Doncaster 68
    10.Rochdale 67
    11.Chesterfield 65
    12.Fleetwood 64

    Heads says we'll just miss out. Heart says we'll give ourselves a big chance by nicking it at Bradford in front of a huge away following.

    Whoever gets that final spot deserves it.

    I've given all 8 teams decent form going into the final 8-10 games. Obviously that wont happen. Some could slip away in the next 3-4 games. Whatever happens it's going to be an exciting finish. Anything taken from Bristol on Saturday is a huge bonus.

    Really looking forward to the final 8 games.

    Apologies for any mathematical error. Hopefully they'll go in our favor!

    Come on you Reds!
     
    redarmychris, Mar 23, 2015
    #1
  2. John Peachy

    John Peachy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2011
    Messages:
    17,514
    Likes Received:
    17,251
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    The littlest hobo
    Location:
    Leeds, United Kingdom
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Great work, but in this league it is about who turns up on the day.

    I'm convinced if we had Pearson & Scowen in the side on saturday we would have won that game.

    Even the big budget teams have only 6-7 top players. If a few are missing they lose.

    Long haul. If we make we do. If not, lets look forward to a proper challenge next season with a smart young manager & a youthful squad.
     
    John Peachy, Mar 23, 2015
    #2
  3. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2014
    Messages:
    2,695
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Can we have this as a sticky please ?
     
    .:Tyke:., Mar 23, 2015
    #3
  4. woolley mammoth

    woolley mammoth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,072
    Likes Received:
    25
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I'm sure we'll win at least 1 out of 4 away games
     
    woolley mammoth, Mar 23, 2015
    #4
  5. redarmychris

    redarmychris Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    6,807
    Likes Received:
    1,481
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Chances are we will. But we may also drop points at home against very good sides. Obviously its all guesswork. But its mainly to demonstrate how many points its likely to take.
     
    redarmychris, Mar 23, 2015
    #5
  6. woolley mammoth

    woolley mammoth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,072
    Likes Received:
    25
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Can you kindly change 1 point to 3 points against Notts County then please just to keep me happy ? :D
     
    woolley mammoth, Mar 23, 2015
    #6
  7. redarmychris

    redarmychris Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    6,807
    Likes Received:
    1,481
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I prefer to give us less chance. That way any wins picked up away we know give us a real chance!

    For he record though I did originally have us down for 3 points at Notts. Changed it due to reasons stated above.
     
    redarmychris, Mar 23, 2015
    #7
  8. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    34,499
    Likes Received:
    23,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Farnham
    Style:
    Barnsley
    I agree with you - I dont think we will win all our remaining home games which you have put us down for but I have no idea which one we wont win - we might get something at Bristol or a win at Colchester or Notts County who knows but I think your points total is realistic. I also think we will need to get to 70 points to have a decent chance of making the playoffs.

    At least we are looking up not down though which makes a much more pleasant change
     
    Farnham_Red, Mar 23, 2015
    #8
  9. The

    The Albatross Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2005
    Messages:
    4,323
    Likes Received:
    47
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    There's no "very good sides" in this league and I include the top 4 in that. Most of them beat us while we were garbage and playing for goalless draws away from home. Nothing to fear and no reason why we can't get a top 6 spot at all now we're playing to win every game
     
    The Albatross, Mar 23, 2015
    #9
  10. twi

    twillo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2012
    Messages:
    6,103
    Likes Received:
    2,005
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Sheffield United 80 points

    Peterborough 74 points

    Barnsley 70 points

    Donny 69 points

    Rochdale 69 points

    Chesterfield 65 points

    Bradford 63 points

    Fleetwood 61 points


    I think not winning at Bradford will make sure we are still in League 1 next season. Wouldn't be surprised if Sheff United went on a great run and comfortably finished in there and Peterborough haven't got the hardest of fixtures, especially with the form they've been on. Any bonus away points from Bristol City and a win from Bradford will give us a massive chance in getting in there as I think we will do Colchester and Notts County. I also think we'll draw Rochdale at home last game of the season so could do with us picking something at either both of those away game.
     
    twillo, Mar 24, 2015
    #10
  11. blivy

    blivy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    5,607
    Likes Received:
    1,143
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Manchester
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Is there the BBC table predictor for league 1?

    I can't really disagree with the points total. I'd hope we'd take 3 points at Colchester and Notts County. I think we'll need to to get in the playoffs.
     
    blivy, Mar 24, 2015
    #11
  12. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    26,266
    Likes Received:
    22,042
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    A big massive boat
    Style:
    Barnsley
    I think the bbc did away with the predictor the season before last.
     
    Archey, Mar 24, 2015
    #12
  13. Bossman

    Bossman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2009
    Messages:
    14,970
    Likes Received:
    14,050
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Carlton
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    How many more points do we need to be safe from relegation... Terms and conditions, thisisajokeandinnowaymeanttobetakenseriousjustincaseimaccusedofbeennegative.
     
    Bossman, Mar 24, 2015
    #13
  14. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2014
    Messages:
    2,695
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Saturday is a loss that's a given
    But I think the other 3 away games are all winnable, as do I the home games, I think we'll finish on 69 points, if that's enough who knows, let's hope it is.
     
    .:Tyke:., Mar 24, 2015
    #14
  15. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    34,499
    Likes Received:
    23,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Farnham
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Taking you semi seriously as I was curious about the mathematics - in practice we are already safe 55 points is already enough barring completely unprecidented runs of results there are a group of 7 teams from 2nd to 8th bottom on 38 to 43 points and we would need them all to average at least 1.4pgg from now until the end of the season and that wont happen one or 2 of them might but not 5 of them
    Especially as they all have to play each other - so they cant both win I think if we had the worst possible combination of results its still theoretically possible to go down with 59

    All the group after the last relegation place play at least 3 other rivals so although in theory they can get to 64 or 65 points they cant all do that worst case for us is if they win 1 draw 1 and lost 1 of these games so they all lose 5 points from their theoretical maximum so the most the 4th bottom can finish with is 59 points so we arent mathematically safe yet we will be by the time we beat the Blunts though
     
    Farnham_Red, Mar 24, 2015
    #15
  16. dingdangblue

    dingdangblue Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2011
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    15
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Nice work!
    But one thing I will pick you out on is Dale drawing 5 of our last 11. We have drawn 5 in 35 games - we hardly draw. Its win or lose so if we keep up that record - and there's no pressure on us now we are safe - then we should end up on 70 points. (based on current points per game).
     
    dingdangblue, Mar 24, 2015
    #16
  17. Bossman

    Bossman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2009
    Messages:
    14,970
    Likes Received:
    14,050
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Carlton
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Cheers for that Farnham, I was actually semi serious
     
    Bossman, Mar 24, 2015
    #17
  18. dingdangblue

    dingdangblue Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2011
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    15
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Sorry that should have read 68 pts (thought we had played 35 not 36)
    Anyway if form throughout the season so far continues and theres no guarantee that it will. The table will end
    Sheff 72
    Dale 68
    Pboro 68
    Barns 66
    Brad 65
    Don 64
    Fleet 63
     
    dingdangblue, Mar 24, 2015
    #18
  19. redarmychris

    redarmychris Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    6,807
    Likes Received:
    1,481
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    To be fair the draws I've predicted are either at home to top sides or away games. Oldham however are there for the taking tonight and a win would go a long way for you in reaching 70. I think you'll fall short though over the running.
     
    redarmychris, Mar 24, 2015
    #19
  20. dingdangblue

    dingdangblue Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2011
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    15
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Yes I think the playoffs will be asking too much - but we have rediscovered our mojo after losing our top scorer and Ian Henderson and Peter Vincenti have come into some great scoring form of late. The way we are playing we should beat Oldham and Yeovil but you never know with a local derby and a team scrapping for their survival. The last day could be interesting!
     
    dingdangblue, Mar 24, 2015
    #20
Page 1 of 2

Share This Page