They say the bookies are rarely wrong....

...but surely this can't be right?



These are the odds to win the championship by the way so obviously if you turn it the other way around you could say we are odds on to be relegated. Anyone fancy a tenner?

 

We've been joint favourites to go down for a month.

 

yeah i know i've been looking at it for a while, just confused....surely they have people looking at the situation meaning they would see we have invested a fair bit - obviously they don't rate our signings?

 

bookies take no notice of signings at all nt

 

thats B*ll*cks.

 

well it's to do with how much money is wagered isn't it?

so we have basically no money on us to win the league, especially when compared with the other teams. So, if for some reason everyone bet on us to win, regardless of who anybody signed we would have to become favourites to win.

i think S)

 

West Ham were made favourites for UEFA Cup on back of Tevez n Mascherano signings. nt

 

Rany real need for foul language?

coulda just said nonsense, or rubbish. No I just honestly do not hink that they really look at who's signing who or what.

 

Colchester look doomed to me,

Only one I disagree with.</p>

</p>

 

they take into consideration a teams signings and transfers out. Also a teams form the previous season at the current level.

 

RE: surely we aren't the 23rd/24th worst team tho? nt nt

 

Agreed. in disarray

 

well sorry but I tink they are full of ****, We are getting a much better side together now

I think we will finish in the middle 8 zone 9th - 17th

 

Bristol City , Blackpool , Scnuthorpe , Colchester and Ourselves

based on last season and signings (done and mooted)</p>

If our guys gel and we start playing some football we could be a lot better than a lot of people think.</p>

If they dont then the bookies will be correct.</p>

 

Do you think any of the other teams think they have improved from last season?

.

 

Id say QPR will also be down there as well as Hull and stoke.

 

some , but not all

I do not think QPR, Cardiff, Sheff Weds, Colchester,Stoke or Leicester have done much

 

I think you should check sky sports out Re leicester

 

Thats right

All a bookie is trying to do is win whatever the outcome. For instance in a 2 horse race, if total bets on each horse were £10,000 the odds would probably balance out at about 4/5 each, such that whatever the outcome the bookie would make £2,000.

At the start of a season, the bookies will make an informed decision, but then the amount of money wagered will result in the bookies constantly balancing their books such that whetever the outcome they will win.

In the case of Barnsley, the odds will have started at say 66/1 or 80/1. There will probably have been money for other teams, resulting in the bookies lengthening the odds for Barnsley to try and get some money. Lets face it, we have very little chance of winning, so any bets are from the heart rather than the head - any bets would probably be for the each way opporrtunity.

When the odds for relegation are released I dont, think Barnsley will be necessarily the favourites. Being the least likely to win the league, does not necessarily make then the most likely to finish bottom. Money wagered will dictate this. If Barnsley were originally favourites for relegation, and there was more money bet on them than say QPR, then QPR odds would get bigger just so the bookie could get some mony wagered on them. The bookies don't offer odds based on what they think - they offer what odds they think will entice the amount of money they want to be bet on a particular team, to balance the books so that whatever the result they will win.

I used to be a bookies clerk at dog track, and at any point we would know what our overall profit/loss would be if a particular number won - if we had too much exposure on one dog, we would shorten the odds below that of the other bookies - so noone would bet with us - they would go next door. Conversely, if we would win too much on a particular dog, we would probably offer longer odds than our neighbours so people would bet with us. The overall objective was to try and balance the books such that whatever dog won, we would retain about 20% of the total amounts wagered.

Hope it makes sense!

 

If thats for real

I'm havin £20 on us finishing top 10.
To quote Terry Pratchett "1000000 to 1 chances happen all the time.It's just a case pf picking the right one"