I guess we're all feeling pretty buoyant at the moment (provided we buy into 'the system')? On a fairly optimistic scan of the remaining fixtures I could see us garnering a further 27-29 points IF we continue to maintain our current form. That would give us a total in the range of 69-71 points. Last season Chesterfield (6th) got 69. The 7th club got 65. However, we need to factor in the chances of the other likely contestants. Skybet go 7/1 (12.5%) we make the top 6 and 1/12 (92%) we don't. (4.5% 'overround' on a two horse race). As far as the current table goes, I think the top four are home in respect of a top 6 finish, looking at the points tallies. I make the remaining two places between the next eight clubs in the table (i.e. down to Bradford). I think that Coventry, Millwall and Southend have a better chance than the remaining five. My overall conclusion is that the 12.5% which Skybet's odds represent for us to make it are probably an over-estimation of our chances, and don't therefore represent a good bet. That takes into account that the IF in my first pargraph is a big one. That's not to say it can't be an exciting run in.
There will be a blip somewhere in the next few games. Possibly this weekend. It'll be how Hecky & Tommy deal with it that will define our season. At the moment, it's a fast-moving, well-oiled machine and they don't need to do much other than get the lads fit for the next game. Let's see how the handle the first bit of disappointment. Do it well, and I think we just might make it.
