Top 6, promotion and relegation

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Archerfield, Apr 17, 2021.

  1. Arc

    Archerfield Well-Known Member

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    With just five games left to go I thought I’d look on one of those predictor sites to the probabilities of each of these things. As always, when it’s good news it has to be a very reliable source.

    Anyway the simulated league finishing positions has us 5th with a 24% chance of promotion through the playoffs. We also have a 94% chance of being in the playoffs.

    In other good news Wednesday are a 96% chance for relegation. These statistics are very much in line with the odds you can get from the bookies.

    All these numbers are based on lots of numbers and, as we know, can be total rubbish but I like the results so thought I’d share.

    One caveat is that on October 4th last year we had a less than 3% chance of promotion but 19% chance of relegation. Lies, damned lies and statistics.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
     
  2. Redhelen

    Redhelen Well-Known Member

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    At least a 25% chance of getting promoted in my stats!
     
    Chippy red, Archerfield and BBBFC like this.

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