Who's going down with Scunny & Colchester?... with stats & stuff

OK before you vote for the Wendys to go down, here's some useful info...

The table below shows a prediction for final league positions that Stato would be proud of. It's based on extrapolating the form from the last 8 league matches to the 6-8 matches remaining for each team. OK, so this isn't the last word in scientific approaches, but it's interesting nonetheless...

....................Current Pos.......Last 8 Matches.......46Pld Extrapolated
Team...........Pld...Pts...GD......WDL....+Points.......+Points...Total...Pos
Blackpool.......40...49....+1......2-4-2...+10pts..........+8.........57.....16
Norwich........40...49.....-9.......2-1-5.....+7pts.........+5.........54.....18
BFC.............39...46....-13......1-3-4....+6pts.........+5.........51.....22
Saints...........40...46....-17......1-5-2.....+8pts.........+6.........52.....21
Coventry.......39...45....-13......2-3-3.....+9pts.........+8.........53.....19
Leicester.......40...44......0......3-1-4....+10pts.........+8.........52.....20
Wendys........38...44.....-5.......3-4-1...+13pts........+13.........57.....17
Scunny.........40...38....-22......2-1-5.....+7pts..........+5........43.....23
Colchester.....40...33....-20......0-1-7.....+1pts..........+1........34.....24

The only major rounding-up was for Leicester & Blackpool, who both had their extrapolated +7.5 points rounded up to +8. Then again their GD is waaaay better than ours so that counts for a point.

This 'prediction' suggests that it could be a real nail-biter, with the Reds, Saints & Leicester fighting it out for the last relegation spot. Only Colchester have worse form than the Reds and unless we buck our ideas up, it all looks a bit grim.

The Football365 website agrees that on "Recent Form", we'd go down on goal difference with 51 points, with Leicester just surviving.
http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html

Here's the run-in by the way. I've highlighted the 6-pointers between relegation-threatened clubs...

Norwich..........Barnsley...........Saints............Coventry.............Leicester.............Wendys.............Scunny................Colchester

Bristol(A).........Burnley(A).......Cardiff(A).......Plymouth(H)........Scunny(H).........Stoke(H)............Leicester(A)........Baggies(A)
Burnley(H).......Watford(A)......Bristol(H).......Wendys(A)........Blades(A).............Coventry(H)......Wendys(H)..........Ipswich(H)
Ipswich(A).......Preston(A)......Charlton(A)....Watford(A)..........Colchester(H).....Scunny(A)........Palace(A)............Leicester(A)
Baggies(H).......Hull(H)............Burnley(H).....Stoke(H).............Reds(A)..............Blades(A)...........Cardiff(H)............Coventry(H)
QPR(H)...........Leicester(H)....Baggies(A).....Colchester(A)....Wendys(H).........Plymouth(H).......Watford(A)..........Stoke(H)
Wendys(A).....Charlton(H)......Blades(H).......Wolves(H)..........Stoke(A)..............Blackpool(A).......Colchester(H).....Scunny(A)
......................Cardiff(A)............................Charlton(A)...................................Leicester(A)
..................................................................................................................Norwich(H)

Apart from Preston & Cardiff (both away) it seems we have a pretty tough run-in with teams fighting for automatic promotion, playoff places. That game against Leicester is a must-win. Thankfully it's long after the FA Cup semi-final.

So, another backs-to-the-wall scrap against the drop. Then again, we actually have enough matches left to finish 2nd (bustin)

 

oh dear !

not looking good is it. At least you'll have the memories of the cup run to console with at Oldham next winter

 

Stuff Oldham, we could be playing Celta Vigo!

UEFA Cup, here we come (dribble)