with 14 games to go.............................

our worst 14 game run was 23 pts. Our best -and current-is 29. So unless we implode we should be roundabout 83 to 89 points at season end-enough for playoffs but not top two IMHO

 

I think Portsmouth are away and clear for 1st. Unless they collapse they will win the league. 2nd is between us, Derby and Bolton - and I'd say Bolton have the advantage at the moment, but if we can beat them both that will put us in the driving seat.

Oxford and Stevenage to complete the play-off places unless Peterborough can stop their free-fall.

 

Agree on Portsmouth. Well clear and with plenty of squad depth I just don’t see them failing from here. I’d make Derby favourites for second. Bolton have the toughest run in by far.

 

I think Peterborough will pick up and pip Stevenage-my dream scenario is for Stevenage to miss out by 1 goal on goal difference so Steve Evans can have another big moan about how they were the best team and were somehow cheated out of it !

 

We still have a big hand in it - and IIRC Bolton and Derby have to play each other which is another big game. I'll be more confident if we win on Saturday though...

 

We are in with a shout for an automatic place, but I suspect we will be in the play offs.

 

I've been confident of us making the top 6 from before the season started (enough to have a bet on it). However, I don't believe we've looked like top 2 at any point during the season. But, other than for quarter of an hour on Saturday, I don't think we've had our best team on the field. If we can keep that team fit, it may be enough to push us up to the top two.

I've been impressed with the work done by our recruitment team for a good few years but I think they really dropped the ball in the summer. My confidence stemmed from my belief that we'd selected the right head coach, but I thought some of the tools he was given to work with were short of what was required to win automatic promotion or even get in the play-offs if they hadn't got the head coach right. Credit where it's due though, the signings of Earl and Pines were exactly what we needed. We'll see in time if they're as good as we all hope, but they were certainly the right type of player.

 

Agree, although we are in with a better shout of top 2 than this time last season.

after 32 games we were 8 points behind Wednesday and 13 Plymouth with no games in hand and substantially worse goal difference than both.

Wednesday went on to collapse and then Ipswich went on an unbelievable run of form.

 

You have to say our home form would suggest we won,t beat derby at home on Saturday I hope I,m wrong.

 

I’ve said for a while now that those home games against Peterborough, Pompey and Oxford will stop us getting top 2. I’d love to be wrong though. Beating both Derby and Bolton at home in the next couple of weeks would certainly give us a chance you’d like to think.

I looked at the fixture analysis on soccer stats the other day and if I remember correctly, it had Pompey having a tough run in. I do still think they will get top 2 though. Bolton looking a safe bet now too.

 

I wouldn't give top spot to Pompey just yet, despite winning, they've been outshot in most of their recent run and everyone below them has games in hand.

 

Here are Boltons remaining fixtures. Unless the rest of us fall away badly, they’ll do well to be top two imo. Blackpool & Wigan away next, just for starters, the latter being a big needle game for both clubs.


https://www.google.com/gasearch?q=b...lz4;2;/m/0355sz;bs;hd;;;;2024-02-24T15:00:00Z

Edit - Here’s Boltons record at Blackpool.

https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd?team_id=317&team2_id=354

 

Very similar to last year in that I can see us 3 or 4 games out not having a realistic shot at top 2, but very comfortably in a play off place.

If we win the next few games including Bolton and Derby then we’ve a great chance. Sadly I don’t think we’re brave enough against the higher placed teams. Don’t care what anyone says this league is absolute cack this season and top 2 was there for the taking.

Please Neill Collins, don’t have us die wondering. Attack Bolton and Derby from the off, they’re not actually that good.

 

We haven’t looked anywhere like top 2 standard at any point this season. To be honest, we haven’t looked top 6 standard, but here’s the rub, apart from Exeter, nobody else I’ve seen has looked top 6 standard either! I’ve been saying it for a while now, (and it’s not yet happened, but we are continuing to pick up points) but if we click we could finish like the team of 2016 did. We’re leaving it late, but only Portsmouth seem to be getting away from us at the moment. Hopefully Cosgrove’s goals will kickstart his season. His performances have been improving and it’s just the finishing that has been letting him down. I do feel that any chance of success for us rests heavily on Connell staying fit and in form. We now have four centre backs, so a cushion to avoid having to play Williams there and hopefully his confidence can return.

I’ve not been impressed with Collins this season. His tactics, team selections and substitutions have had me scratching my head. He seems to have got on top with the substitutuions, making switches that have changed the course of the game, and with 4 centre backs, Connell being back in the team, McAtee having turned into an important player and Cosgrove’s performances improving, the team selections should be a lot more straightforward. So with us in 4th, with a great chance of the play-offs, an outside chance of the top 2 and an improving team, you cannot help but conclude that Collins is doing something right. So we’ll keep going down there, keep supporting them and, as I say, if we click, I can see an end to the season in the style of 2016, cos I’ve seen no teams that a Reds team playing to its full potential should be scared of. And whatever happens, we cannot have the nightmare ending to the season that we had last season. Even if we lose to another 120th minute goal at Wembley, it won’t be Sheffield Sodding Wednesday!

 

I throughly believe we can get 31 points between now and the end of the season. We don’t have many losses in us. Can see us losing at Pompey, drawing Derby, Bolton, Blackpool and Stevenage and potentially winning the rest. That’s not going to be the case but it should be the aim in reality.

 

We could lose on pens mate

 

Agree with a lot of that.

I do think a few sides have looked very good though in terms of this level of football. Pompey and Derby battered us and looked the best two sides in the league for me, and also agree about Exeter. Seem to have massive issues with them. Was also quietly impressed with Blackpool despite us having the majority of the play. And based on their performance against us, I’m still baffled how Charlton are near the bottom of the league!

 

The stand out feature from that list is the five games lost at home. That’s most the. unBarnsley-like thing I’ve seen in years.

 

Spot on there, Jay