York Day Four – Saturday 26 August Day One Races: 4 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -40.00 Day Two Races: 3 Wins: 0 [1 place] Profit/Loss: -15.00 Day Three Races: 1 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -10.00 [Doswell withdrawn] My word! Thought we were on the board with Dartmouth! But however gutted I was at that photo finish outcome, I reckon it will be as nothing to Frankie’s feelings after punching the air thinking he’d gotten Lady Aurelia home. The Nunthorpe was quite simply a magnificent race, and Marsha was a magnificent and valiant winner. Absolutely fabulous for the members of the Elite Racing Club, and the very wily Sir Mark Prescott. This filly must surely now be en route to Chantilly for the big Group 1 sprint on Arc Day. Today was another reminder of just how competitive this meeting is, whether you’re an owner, trainer, jockey or punter! Looking at the results so far, it shows how important it is to limit the damage by excluding the ‘no bet’ races, even if the ones you play in hardly look any more fathomable. As I’ve said before, it’s a long game, and at least anyone still reading this now knows that they will have narrowed the field down if they avoid my selections! Onwards and upwards. We don’t have to watch these live tomorrow as we will be cheering on victory over Sunderland, but here’s my thoughts on tomorrow’s card. 1.55 Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) 1m 1f MUSTASHRY Sovereign Debt, Gabrial and Mondialiste are all Yorkshire-trained winners of good races during their career, however none of them is likely to be improving at their present age. Mustashry by contrast, is a four year old (trained by Sir Michael Stoute) who ran a career best in a very decent handicap at Chelmsford last time out. His time performance that day highlights him as a potential group race performer and Sir Michael has been among the winners this week. 2.25 Melrose Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m 6f No Bet Seven of the twenty rated within 3 lbs of each other and you know the rest! 3.00 Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (2yo) 7f HEADWAY/INVINCIBLE ARMY Headway was unsuited by the soft ground at Goodwood last time but prior to that had finished a close second in the Coventry Stakes, which is Royal Ascot’s most prestigious race for two year olds. His performance on the clock that day was noteworthy and his trainer William Haggas has a very good record at York. Invincible Army ran second in a Group 3 at Goodwood despite being badly drawn and has scope for further improvement. At their odds of around 4/1 and 6/1 they can be combined for an overall return of just under 2/1 (33% chance) which in my view under-estimates the chance of one of the two winning. 3.35 Ebor Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m 6f No Bet The doyen of ‘no bet’ races for the familiar reasons I’ve outlined in regard to other impossible races at this meeting. If tortured to the point of giving an opinion I’d put up Dubka, Flymetothestars and Magic Circle against the field (>2/1 chance). But this is the mother of all ‘no bet’ races. 4.10 Roses Stakes (Listed) (2yo) 5f No Bet The ratings I use give Richard Fahey’s Bengali Boys as clear top-rated and I wouldn’t care to oppose this one. However, Fahey’s strike rate at York is about half his overall strike rate (currently about 11%, 6% at York). In addition, I don’t trust the ratings that have been allotted to his win in a big sales race at Newbury last time out. The figures for that race are out of kilter with all his other performances, and there are other potential improvers in here. I can’t oppose Bengali Boys, but my gut instinct is not to back him either. 4.40 Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m 2f No Bet Eleven runners within three pounds on the ratings! 5.15 Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 5f Ten runners within three pounds, and inexperienced jockeys to boot! Good luck to anyone going to York tomorrow – why aren’t you at Oakwell?
QUOTE="orsenkaht, post: 2009605, member: 7543"]York Day Four – Saturday 26 August Day One Races: 4 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -40.00 Day Two Races: 3 Wins: 0 [1 place] Profit/Loss: -15.00 Day Three Races: 1 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -10.00 [Doswell withdrawn] My word! Thought we were on the board with Dartmouth! But however gutted I was at that photo finish outcome, I reckon it will be as nothing to Frankie’s feelings after punching the air thinking he’d gotten Lady Aurelia home. The Nunthorpe was quite simply a magnificent race, and Marsha was a magnificent and valiant winner. Absolutely fabulous for the members of the Elite Racing Club, and the very wily Sir Mark Prescott. This filly must surely now be en route to Chantilly for the big Group 1 sprint on Arc Day. Today was another reminder of just how competitive this meeting is, whether you’re an owner, trainer, jockey or punter! Looking at the results so far, it shows how important it is to limit the damage by excluding the ‘no bet’ races, even if the ones you play in hardly look any more fathomable. As I’ve said before, it’s a long game, and at least anyone still reading this now knows that they will have narrowed the field down if they avoid my selections! Onwards and upwards. We don’t have to watch these live tomorrow as we will be cheering on victory over Sunderland, but here’s my thoughts on tomorrow’s card. 1.55 Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) 1m 1f MUSTASHRY Sovereign Debt, Gabrial and Mondialiste are all Yorkshire-trained winners of good races during their career, however none of them is likely to be improving at their present age. Mustashry by contrast, is a four year old (trained by Sir Michael Stoute) who ran a career best in a very decent handicap at Chelmsford last time out. His time performance that day highlights him as a potential group race performer and Sir Michael has been among the winners this week. 2.25 Melrose Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m 6f No Bet Seven of the twenty rated within 3 lbs of each other and you know the rest! 3.00 Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (2yo) 7f HEADWAY/INVINCIBLE ARMY Headway was unsuited by the soft ground at Goodwood last time but prior to that had finished a close second in the Coventry Stakes, which is Royal Ascot’s most prestigious race for two year olds. His performance on the clock that day was noteworthy and his trainer William Haggas has a very good record at York. Invincible Army ran second in a Group 3 at Goodwood despite being badly drawn and has scope for further improvement. At their odds of around 4/1 and 6/1 they can be combined for an overall return of just under 2/1 (33% chance) which in my view under-estimates the chance of one of the two winning. 3.35 Ebor Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m 6f No Bet The doyen of ‘no bet’ races for the familiar reasons I’ve outlined in regard to other impossible races at this meeting. If tortured to the point of giving an opinion I’d put up Dubka, Flymetothestars and Magic Circle against the field (>2/1 chance). But this is the mother of all ‘no bet’ races. 4.10 Roses Stakes (Listed) (2yo) 5f No Bet The ratings I use give Richard Fahey’s Bengali Boys as clear top-rated and I wouldn’t care to oppose this one. However, Fahey’s strike rate at York is about half his overall strike rate (currently about 11%, 6% at York). In addition, I don’t trust the ratings that have been allotted to his win in a big sales race at Newbury last time out. The figures for that race are out of kilter with all his other performances, and there are other potential improvers in here. I can’t oppose Bengali Boys, but my gut instinct is not to back him either. 4.40 Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m 2f No Bet Eleven runners within three pounds on the ratings! 5.15 Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 5f Ten runners within three pounds, and inexperienced jockeys to boot! Good luck to anyone going to York tomorrow – why aren’t you at Oakwell?[/QUOTE] Cheers for all the advice,much appreciated.Dream today and mojito made it a great sunny day!!!!
Glad you found those, Yarmy! My picks won't have assisted anybody this week, but at least it starts a discussion of some of the races and folks can then have a think whether they agree/disagree. Ignoring my own betting results it has still been a fabulous week with standout performances from the likes of Cracksman, Ulysses, Enable and Marsha/Lady Aurelia. The Nunthorpe was just a brilliant race - with plenty of drama! Ebor Day today. My older daughter was born on this day but Lady Kaht resisted my request to give her a middle name of 'Eboracum'! If I tell you that Protection Racket won the great race that day you'll be able to work out how old Kaht Jr is!
Magic circle in ebor , bravery in 4-15 and betting two in 2-35. The grand visir and look my way . Good luck to punters today
