BBC Really lost the plot this time....

Re: Ah! the IFS...

I can see why you'd think some of this but I have a very different perspective for a number of reasons:

1. IFS don't really do the type of forecasts you're suggesting they do here. What they do after events like Autumn Statement is take the economic forecasts that the OBR produce and the policy announcements that are announced by the Chancellor, and report how the combination of those things impact overall living standards as well as living standards for specific groups of the population. There are some assumptions, but the majority of the uncertainty is driven by stuff they take directly from the Government. I wonder whether the forecast misses you mention are really the fault of that organisation.

2. I do agree with you that predicting the future is really difficult - but it's not astrology. The economy today gives us some clue about what future years might look like, we understand some relationships well and some not so well - but being confident on a precise figure is difficult - especially when there's an unprecedented shock like Brexit. Unfortunately the government needs a forecast - imagine what would happen if politicians were able to spend money today without any consideration of the state of the economy in the future. The fact it is uncertain doesn't mean we shouldn't try because the alternative is much worse. Perhaps your issue is with how the forecast is often used a set piece political item rather than forecasts generally?

3. Economists like the OBR are actually really good at understanding and communicating uncertainty. Go and read their publications - there's a massive range of scenario analysis around their forecast. Politicians and media are not - I'd suggest most of your issue with forecasting is more an issue with politicians and newspapers than economists.

4. I can't really buy an argument that institutions like IFS are systematically biased or somehow propaganda agents of the government. I could go and find lots and lots of publications from both of these organisations that have delivered bad news to the government in recent years (OBR repeatedly revising up borrowing figures meaning Conservative government missed fiscal targets, IFS child poverty projections). I could maybe accept that perhaps there's a conventional wisdom type effect where a scenario like Brexit is so unique institutions are unable to consider more radical impacts it might have due to lack of evidence / herding. But, that's quite different from what you're implying

5. Finally, one thing I find interesting is that the main pushers of the 'don't trust the experts' line are media and politicians who perhaps have most to gain from marginalising outside opinion. I think there's a real case of be careful what you wish for here because if we go down that road then I'm not convinced the alternative will be better long term.

Anyway - all of the above not really set out to change your mind as you seem to genuinely believe your position - but I've seen so many variants of these arguments recently and nobody ever seems to set out the other side.

 

Re: Ah! the IFS...

Good post and I accept some of your points. Putting aside the bias arguments, the problem I have is Economics in general. GFor background I admit to not being highly qualified in the field I studied Economics to degree level whilst taking and passing my A level due to the fact we had a brilliant young teacher who went above and beyond what was required to pass an A level. I remember the mounds of banda master notes we had doled out to us each week over the two years. I then went into banking and Insurance for a few years before changing careers.

OK -so we studied in a period where Keynsian Economics were pretty much 'it' in a time of full employment and high inflation. The big bang was a long way off and many of the complex mechanisms like futures trading etc were yet to arrive. Then along cam Friedman.

The difficulty is that real science, when presented with empirical evidence a group of scientists will ultimately arrive at the same conclusion In economics when presented with the same 'fact' a group of economists will invariably draw the opposite conclusion. I am not belittling their knowledge or training but a common joke is " If you laid all the economists of the world end to end they would still not reach a conclusion"

I also consider Austerity policies counter to the way Capitalism is currently supposed to work i.e. constant growth. The whole system is designed to that end and yet in a world of limited resources it is unsustainable and we need to move towards a stabilising the world economy. Of course with companies and Corporations having to satisfy the demands of shareholders the wholse system is rigged.

Specifically on the original point regarding the forecast for low wages growth . It has been highlighted for some time that for years the UK productivity has fallen behind and we have been paying ourselves far too much and a period of adjustment is needed. Now it is forecast that it (may?)will happen it is suddenly "Awful"

Economists seem to divide into two distinct camps Austerity Friedman vs Spend and Grow Keynsian. It needs some radical reassessment (no idea what ) as the current Globalisation/Capitalist system is going down a dead end street and a Left Wing ideology is not the answer either.

 

F.F.S. admin, can we have a separate section for this boring tw&t?

 

Why do you need degree to be able to reason that the experts are wrong, I know many grads who are literally thick as mince havin only learnt how to regurgitate the biased curriculum that they have been taught by the system . Most of em I've come across are unemployable tea lads
HTH

 

By the same logic most people voting in had no idea of what the future would be for the EU and how it will trade with the rest of the world as it develops towards a more centrist and federal organisation.

 

Since you are clearly articulate aand offer alternative opinions do you think the Euro will survive beyond another 4 or 5 years and if not will the aspirations of Merckel and Junckers of a Fedral Europecollapse with it? if it does do you see a retun to the original idea of the EEC or will we end up back to the pre EEC era of individual staters and separate trade agreements.

For my part I cannot see how the Euro can survive with all the current EU member states presently in the Eurozoe, but not sure the direction Europe will take after its demise.

 

Re: Ah! the IFS...

The Institute of Fiscal Studies is completely independent from government. I was a member of it for a number of years, paying my subscription annually. The main reason I chose to become a member is because of its complete independence of government. My £35 a year annual membership was huge value for money. For it I received regular e-mail updates and a minimum of 4 reports looking into aspects of the British economy (e.g. who would benefit from changes to welfare programmes) that were not in the headlines of newspapers (and, therefore, politicians). On what do you base your statement about it being funded by the government ?

 

I have a genuine concern that given the push towards more central control and an expansionist policy Eastwards (EU Army as well) that the EU if uncorrected will eventually become an antagonistic force which will prompt Putin into action that we will all regret. The gradual undermining of NATO and its role in post war peace keeping is insidious.

In terms of economics and workers rights etc I think we can look no further than Greece, where buoyed by the IMFI etc a country was basically instructed what to do by the EU in terms of fiscal and social policy - have a look at how independent pharmacies in Greece are being sold to multinational companies - that's what the EU are about imho - Banks and multinationals - a large cheap pool of labour that can be moved and dispensed with at will. The galling thing for me is that left wing politicians in the main slavishly sign up to this degradation of the individual both as a nation and as a human being.

It's a dangerous unpredictable organisation and we are better off out of it imho.

 

I've always wondered why right wing minded people hate the BBC and then it dawned on me, the interlude picture is of a young girl and not the grinning kite of Farage.

 

And yet you opened the thread and read the comment AND posted this?? If you find it boring why read it. Lots of people have commented on it and some, like Extremely Northern have made some interesting comments, some of hwich I agree with and some I don't.

if you find me a "boring tw*t" don't bother reading my posts. Or is it a typical left wing ploy of a bullying tactic to shut up anyone with whom you disagree?

 

What organisation do you think is reaponsible for over 10% of prosecutions at magistrates court.
What demographic of society is the most common in front of the beak.

 

What organisation do you think is reaponsible for over 10% of prosecutions at magistrates court.
What demographic of society is the most common in front of the beak.

 

Re: Ah! the IFS...

Look it up. It receives approximately 14% of its funding from the EU in addition to various Govt departments (11%) and a small proportion from Corporations. The EU contribution has increased year on year. So 25% of its funding is from EU and Govt . A lot of the remainder comes from the ESRC which receives much of its own funding from Government. see the link below.....

There are also some academic documents available on the internet from various sources on the influence, ( real and conjectural) and pressures on funded bodies relating to bias/ conflict of interest which make interesting reading. I am not saying for one minute that they ARE absolutely biased but considering they get a sizeable contribution for EU and Corporate bodies the suspicion will always be there. Alos in fairness, what is reported as coming from the IFS by the media could be highly selective so a balanced report could turn into a confirmation of the reporting outlets views. That in itself though could indicate bias it the IFS did not complain about that if it hap[pened. Again I am not saying it does.

http://www.elsa-project.ac.uk/about/members

 

If that is to me I am unclear what it has to do with the OP. Please clarify.

 

A graduate is about as far from being an expert in a particular field as Tom Kennedy is from Lionel Messi in football!!