He's been!!!!

Today I was in London. I met some amazing people who know - for one reason or another - some of the inner workings on this.

It was very re-assuring. Eye opening and an incredible contrast to most of the ******** in this thread that people imagine will be happening.

Apparently Intelligent, informed and capable career diplomatic negotiators actually do come into their own in these situations away from the limelight - despite all the previous bluster that we don't have any - it seems that there are a few people out there with quite the knack for it.

So Santa brought me smile on my face and sound knowledge that despite all the hype and hysteria there's some good guys out there doing a decent job already and surprise surprise things plus or minus will probably be alright one way or another.

So put your knickers on - make a cup of tea - and calm the fck down.


Oh - and if you're a betting man buy land near Dover - cos if it all goes pear shaped you'll make a fortune turning into a car park for lorries carrying Irish Produce "trying" to get it through the UK into Europe.

 

I'm genuinely not being deliberately insulting but if they are your reasons for remaining they are very narrow and self interested , actually ( although I don't agree with his view ) your father is expressing his views in relation to the national interest as he sees it . The fact that you signed up for a large mortgage is irrelevant to the common good or national interest .

 

I'd definitely agree with some of that though I suspect a lot of those at the bottom of the pile who voted leave as a rejection of ' politics' are the ones who will feel the impact of Brexit the most. Areas like ours massively benefited from the EU and it is difficult to see a London centric conservative led government having any real interest in replacing the funding.

It will be those in low paid minimum wage jobs that see their rights reduced and eroded as we adjust to a post single market economic model and I suspect there will be a massive expansion of the zero hour contract model. Things like the working time directive will clearly be removed that protected us from working longer hours. I'd expect that to go next parliament.

None of that means that somehow those who voted remain are intellectually superior or that all those who voted leave are somehow racist ( though it would be wrong not to acknowledge that xenophobia and bigotry and hatred of foreignness didn't play a part).

 

I hear these concerns about workers’ rights a lot and while I understand them I don't share them. None of us know for certain, we're all speculating to one extent or another, but I am as sure as I can be that the Repeal Bill will be heavily scrutinised and if there is any erosion of workers’ rights then our parliamentary system should be holding the government to account - I also include sunset policies within the definition of erosion of rights.

What gives me this confidence is that I don't believe that it is in the governments interests to erode the rights of workers, I just can't see it happening. There may be some changes but these must be balanced and scrutinised and I'm sure they will be.

I wish I could say that we have a strong opposition but I can’t, this is a serious post, however there will be cross-party scrutiny of everything that the government does over the next two years. Contrary to popular belief there were quite a few Tory MP’s who were pro EU and wanted to remain.

It is also worth remembering that not all employers are out to take advantage of employees, there are some good employers who look after their staff. Equally there are some employees who are an absolute nightmare and cause employers a lot of work - it is not a one-way street. Employment law needs to recognise both.

 

I'd say that current employment law is pretty heavily weighted in favour of employers as it is but of course you are right there are rogue employees as well as rogue employers.

In terms of the future who knows but the mood music coming from Patel, Davis and Johnson is pretty clear in terms of employment rights they wish to remove or downgrade the current protections and their is little opposition to this in the conservative party ( at least not in the extreme right wing cabinet).

 

On here nobody can be accused of voting leave as they seem to have many reason's for doing so, but on the street it's different, we have our country back mentallity. Therein lies the problem.

 

I think perhaps those Leave voters are maybe just the most vocal. My dad for example (bitter at leaving the pit and eeking out his working life in factories populated by immigrants both EU and not) voted out because he thinks that foreign workers suppressed wages when he was still working so yes he was motivated by immigration.

I was undecided until near the end of the process.


I am more inclined to the views held by Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn on the EU in that it exists to further he ideals of capitalism and is anti worker. I balanced this with what I know will happen to employment rights post Brexit that they will be decimated. In the end I voted remain but it was a narrow decision and many people I know and respect went the other way.

Name calling and childishness ruined any genuine debate and information during the run up to the referendum and it's not helpful to carry it on now.

 

Completely agree that there was zero level of effective debate. Just an ever intensifying attempt to fear and smear by both sides. But that's the world we live in at the present time, where truth or genuine debate is all too easily bullied into silence.

Its a shame that slightly better debate is now happening after the event than ever happened before it. A tumbling pound, weakening retail sector and a steepening to inflation are all very worrying, and were very easy to predict. The real kicker will be interest rate rises when they occur for a very indebted nation, and very indebted british citizens.

I unashamedly voted remain. I love Europe, and I'm a European who happens to live in the UK.

I happened to visit Luxembourg a few weeks ago. An interesting tiny place rich in multi layered cultures and history aplenty. Huge amounts of businesses are there. Big law firms, big banks, and even Microsoft have an office there. Many people commute in daily from Belgium, Germany or France, all less than an hour away on a fantastic rail system. And the scale of investment of building just in this one place is vast. New bridges, new offices, a new tram transport system and a modern airport just 15 minutes from the city centre. Its also the cleanest place (and friendliest) I've been in Europe.

Its places like Luxembourg who will benefit from our exit. They have several EU institutions there, and I suspect several of the banks we currently have will increase their headcount in places such as this.

I can also see a shift in the legal sector coming. We're going to lose some big businesses, or see their operations reduced which has a direct impact on jobs and tax receipts. Slowly at first I suspect, probably looking for individual government sweeteners to entice them to stay. But I know of 11 banks directly who are in full negotiations to move their UK operations to the continent. I know of 4 law firms looking to reduce costs by 5-20% (these companies all employ between 1000 and 15000 in the UK).

Of course, some businesses may come here. New businesses may start. But at a time when business rates are rising sharply, employment costs are increasing faster than inflation, and there continues to be a vast skills shortage in many sectors, the last thing in my mind is that we should be exiting our biggest export market and creating huge uncertainty by voluntarily removing ourselves from the single market.

The thing that worries me most though, is the government in place while this crisis unfolds. May has always been a bully, a pretty incompetent one at that, whose words and actions constantly conflict. The repeal bill gives powers without scrutiny to amend laws. Yes, its argued that its to take out references to institutions out of the text, but is there some safeguard to stop other text changes? I don't trust this right lurching government at all. An unelected PM taking a view on an ambiguous vote with no clear path with a minority win and listening to the most radical right wingers. Such an irony when much was made about a loss of sovereignty, we seem to have inherited a dictator without a vote who wishes to endure no scrutiny and to affect law carte blanche.

Worrying times for so many reasons.

 

I believe that non-EU banks are not allowed to trade on the EU financial markets (a rule we insisted on), which means that a lot of the banks currently in the city will split off into EU and UK operations. Conversely EU banks may want to open offices in the UK for access to the UK market. This will probably also happen across other sectors, including legal and IT, where multinationals operate on the ability to move people to respond to business requirements across the EU. For me personally, this is a big opportunity (I work in IT Projects) for work over the next couple of years - particularly once we see the state of the finished deal.

Given the sizes of the relative markets, without freedom of movement, the UK offices for these organizations will be smaller than the EU one, which will see roles moving into the EU. This will probably bring a jobs (and tax) bonanza shared between the major cities of the EU.

Manufacturing where all base components are in the UK will probably continue as-is, however manufacturing with base components from the EU (e.g. car parts) will take a hit due to the extra costs and time taken to import through the new customs arrangements - the potential of double WTO tarriffs on the components and finished products will make our manufacturing less competitive despite the drop in the currency.

As a broad generalization, Remain voters tend to be typically younger and better educated. Those have the skills and adaptability to make the best of the new economy or take the opportunities overseas. Leave voters, who are typically older and less educated, will tend to struggle and may find themselves even worse off than before.

 

I have a lot of reasons for wanting to Remain. This is one of the "micro" level concerns on a personal level. If I lost my job, I have a lot of high-demand skills and should be able to find work fairly quickly (last time took 4 weeks from redundancy to starting the new role). However, not much of this work is around here and what jobs are advertised in Sheffield are paid much less than similar roles in other parts of the country and in the EU.

My mortgage is not particularly large in terms of the amount borrowed, but it is short term (15 years rather than the usual 25), which is why it is expensive. Unfortunately with house prices like they are it is not possible to get little mortgages anymore. Unless of course, you want house prices to crash which would make them more affordable but wipe-out the equity that a lot of the older people have in their property.The cheapest 3 bed house in town at the moment is £66K (£370 per month for a mortgage over 15 years), with most over £100k (£590 per month for 15 years).

 

It's all going to end in tears.

 

The contacts I have in the various banks have been making plans with contingencies since before the vote, escalated post vote and as soon as it seemed migration would be a bigger factor than the single market, have pushed on at speed.

Luxembourg, Paris, Frankfurt and Riga are quite far down the road courting these banks too, so a simple skeleton set up in the EU to start with to not spook the UK markets, will soon become more of a flow to mainland Europe.

and I agree, the ramifications for an already obliterated manufacturing sector are hard to comprehend in their likely scale. With rising prices, rising minimum wages and poorer terms with our biggest market, combined with exceptionally poor skilling of our home grown workforces, I cant see much competitive value for large parts of that sector in the UK.