Points Prediction Table

Also added tables to show the teams Barnsley, Portsmouth and Sunderland have to play both home and away and their relative positions are per the home and away tables (as per red background). Hope this makes sense. (Colour per column: Green = Good, Red = Bad)

 

Thanks for that! makes far more sense!

Great work

 

You've just reminded me the reason why I used to wagg maths .

 

Hah so did I then in later life I found Excel could do loads of stuff for me and made numbers much more tolerable! (I'd say fun but then Id sound like a statto, erm....which I am

 

"I find it harder to be objective with us as my instinct is to say we`ll win them all!"


Hit the nail on the head there mate .. that's why things like this are for fun only, impossible to be impartial..

 

Good work tho', cheers. I like the statto of sticking it in one end and keeping it out of the other .

 

I predicted 88 points total, we got 1 more at Donny, i predicted a loss, and 2 more at Walsall i predicted a draw, puts us on 91 looking good Mr Watcher of the Skies WELL DONE, its great what tha doing.

 

Firstly - great analysis Watcher!

I only find myself studying form guides and trying to work out how the rest of the season is going to pan out around 484 times per day. And have worked through numerous different scenarios about how it'll pan out. Looking at the remaining fixtures this evening what struck me was that some teams are in a really poor run of form (e.g. Southend, Wycombe, Donny (away from home at least) whilst others are in good form (e.g. Coventry away from home - Saturday will be a tough game!) and so I thought I'd take what Watcher has done and overlay it with points per game on current form for the teams the top four still have to play.

I've included PPG based on the last 4 home games and last 4 away games and then applied it based on whether the fixture is at home or away. For example, Coventry have taken 10 pts from their last 4 away games (average of 2.5 pts per game), Fleetwood 6 from 4 (1.5 ppg), Shrewsbury 4 from 4 (1 ppg) and Blackpool 6 from 4 (1.5 ppg). Opposition PPG for our remaining home games is therefore 1.625 (6.5/4). Overall for us, opposition average pts per game is 11.5/7 = 1.64 PPG.

Applying this figure as the Future Opposition PPG produces a different result i.e. 1.64 v 1.24 (latter figure based on the season to date as a whole) and results in a 0.28 deficit rather than 0.12 credit. The outcome is that we get 2.8 points fewer (90.4 v 92.84).



Based on this Sunderland overhaul us by 0.6 of a point.

This doesn't of course account for the teams played over the last 8 games, assumes form is maintained over the remaining games and can't factor in some strange results when teams are fighting to avoid relegation / chasing playoffs. And for Sunderland it doesn't account for the challenges they face playing 9 games in 31 days or how they might react to the pressure of chasing.

I definitely think that 3 points on Saturday would be a fantastic result given Coventry's recent away form. My sense is 92 pts will be enough, 93 would be even better and would certainly see us home imo.

 

Updated after the Coventry game.