Just done some checking. Below is a list of the number of points needed to finish 1 point above 3rd bottom in recent seasons, and therefore the survival target , ignoring the possibility that you can survive on the same points with a better goal difference as happened last year. 2005/06 - 43pts 2006/07 - 47pts 2007/08 - 53pts 2008/09 - 47pts 2009/10 - 48pts 2010/11 - 43pts 2011/12 - 49pts 2012/13 - 55pts (The great escape) 2013/14 - 45pts 2014/15 - 42pts 2015/16 - 41pts 2016/17 - 52pts So, conclusions: 1. Despite 50 being the standard quoted survival target, you would have survived with less in 9 of the last 12 seasons. 2. In 4 of the last 12, survival would need 43 or less. Thats only 5 wins away. 3. The average needed in the last 12 seasons is 47pts On the one hand it gives me a little bit of hope as 50pts seems beyond us. On the other hand, even the worst case scenario suggests we still have to win 5 of the next 14 games. We have won 1 of our last 17. Its still going to be a big ask, even if the teams around us continue to be unrelentingly gash.
I feel it'll be really low this season. Low 40s maybe? My prediction for the last day is that there will be a small group of 4 or 5 cut adrift from the rest. At least one of them will already be relegated, and 2 or 3 teams scrapping it out to stay up. It's difficult to see past the current teams at the bottom at the moment. All our Win columns are so poor.
Interesting looking that. Firstly just how bonkers that great escape season was. Given the form of those around us low 40s does look likely at the minute. Though I have trouble seeing us getting to 40 at the minute.
I can’t see it needing much more than 42. The sides in the bottom five would have to improve massively to get much past that figure. On the current points per game 46 points at the end of the season would be good enough for sixth from bottom : 18 Reading 47 (47.4) 19 Bolton 46 20 Birmingham 42 (41.8) 21 Hull 42 (41.7) 22 Burton 40 (40.42) 23 Barnsley 40 (40.25) 24 Sunderland 36 (36.24) There will be a time where mid table sides will be mentally on the beach with nowt to play for, so in theory the bottom sides might pick up a bit more - but I really can’t see us going down on anything as much as 44. I’d be surprised if the bottom three have 120 points between them come May. I’d like more but by my reckoning 16 points might suffice. Five wins, a draw and 8 defeats; Four wins four draws six defeats; even three wins seven draws four defeats. All hope isn’t lost.
The form of other teams is the only thing which gives me hope at present. Reckon 42 points will be enough to stay up. Fluke three wins and a couple of draws and we might just be ok.
What this shows is just how **** this league is this season. There's 7 teams there who could have no complaints at all if they went down, luckily for us we're still well in with a chance when we should be down by now. Desperately need something from Birmingham/Hull though to stop them getting the points if nothing else. A couple of wins would be massive.
Why should we be down by now, have we gained points this season by being lucky/flukey, cos in my mind we have lost a few points being unlucky.
To my mind we have lost a lot of points by not being very good! ( This is from a self-confessed Happy Clapper).
I think 45 will definitely be enough this year and 42 might even do it - I think we can all be sure that the 3 teams will come from the current bottom 5 unless Reading or Boltons recent runs come to an end so we just need to be one of the least bad 2 of this group. Next two games are must not lose at least and wins would be extremely helpful. Just hoping if we can get a win at Brum or Hull we could get a bit of a run going and win a couple more If we cant string a few results together I cant see us getting to 40 points and that will be a relegation spot for sure
We have - but we have also lost a few due to bad luck - I cant think of many lucky points we have got
