The Stefan Payne paradox

Damn! Sorry. Now you've mentioned Shea and Frimpong I realise the error of my thinking. That was clearly the way forward. The value we got out of players like them was incalculable. And you can also argue that we NEVER had the likes of Lita, Done, Dawson, Dagnall nicked from under our noses for a derisory few million apiece.

 

There's degrees of gambles though int there? A quick search on Soccerbase would tell you that Winnall was less of a gamble than Payne, Tuton, Jackson, Fryers, Pinnock and to be fair even someone like MacDonald was a gamble. Difference is, it's Ok gambling on players who you aren't relying on to be first choice, then you can assess them over time.

If we are saying the spreadsheet has identified every player since 2014, what's the success/failure rate? We can't just say that Payne will be good because Winnall was when the spread sheet has identified players who are *****.

 

It's a spreadsheet and a recruitment philosophy, not a magic wand. If there was a magic wand Man Utd would have one and win the league every year. The system we have now is more successfull than any strategy for identifying players than any I've seen in 50 years.

 

Of course it's not a magic wand. What I am saying is that we can't just say player B will be good because player A was. Winnall is the best striker we have had since Shipperley. Payne is not as good as Lee Jones. They were both identified by the same system.

 

And I said I understand your concerns. It can't be a foolproof system. What I took issue with is your constant search for a downbeat and a way to take a sideswipe at the current situation at every single turn.. We've just had one of the most spectacular 18 months in the club's history and still they get cut no slack.

 

Very much agree.

 

I didn't say that though. I said that due to the fact that the spreadsheet has identified a lot of good players, it's as reasonable to assume that Payne will be in the "good" group as he will the "*****" group. Especially having seen him play and thinking he looked half decent until he got injured. As for the success / failure rate, I'm not sure off the top of my head, but I reckon it must be pretty good, especially if we compare it with other clubs' success rates on the field from players signed, especially relative to the amount paid.

 

This is just my opinion - you are free to disagree.

I think we had a fantastic 2016. I credit the manager we are fortunate to have for that, more than any system or plan.

In 2017 we have dismantled that team and started to undo all the progress we have made. The squad we have now is not as good as the one we had between August and December 2016. Nothing will convince me otherwise.

We have now brought in half a dozen players who we have to hope will be able to improve the squad that struggled so badly between Jan and May 2017. The new recruits have about eighteen games between them at this level. It's a big asking for them all to gel and to get up to speed with the division, which they need to do straight away.

We have not made any attempt to replace Winnall yet and I do not see where the goals are coming from. The spreadsheet needs to identify two players capable of scoring 25 goals plus between them or we will really struggle.

That is my current assessment of the situation. You are free to completely disagree.

 

Dare I say that the success rate diminishes the further forward you go.

 

That may well be correct, due to the higher level, and that clubs further up the pyramid have more money to spend, and can therefore afford to take a few more risks in the transfer market. Alex Mowatt was probably our first "risky" signing, as far the fact that he wasn't free, his career seemed to have stalled after a bright start, and he was clearly overweight. Obviously it's still far from clear whether the gamble will pay off, but is was one we could affor to take. The management clearly felt that the potential rewards outweighed the risk taken on transfer outlay and wages.

 

I do feel free to disagree. I get the concern. We're up against it this season. We have a lot of new players who have to hit the ground running. It's a gamble.But we're gambling from a position of strength financially beyond anywhere we've ever been in our history I'd guess. I think everybody has concerns about things but we don't feel the need to obsess on them constantly.
To be quite frank there's a chance we may slip up this year. For me it will be a downturn on a never ending graph of ups and downs for BFC. Disappointing but not the end of the world. However, should we struggle I blanch at the prospect of the constant whining and drama queening from certain people on here who will take a grim satisfaction in the struggle.

 

No one will take satisfaction in it least of all Conan

 

Impact sub last 10 minutes with minimal impact. Shipped back on loan in January imo.


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Because signing players like Lita and Kennedy is the only possible alternative. Chuff me I agree with you but that argument is completely facile.


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I'd say that argument has been fully exploited on this thread and others by people who want to see the negatives in everything the club does. Our strategy over the last 18 months has made us wealthy by our standards, won us a trophy, gained us promotion and established us in the Championship. I KNOW there are dangers lurking. I'm not stupid. But I'm fed up of rank amateurs constantly moaning on here about the decisions made by highly experienced people within the club who have the full facts at their fingertips. But the barrack room lawyers keep on moaning and moaning. You'd think we were in Division 4 and contemplating non league.

 

So if there's no room for discussion and debate any dare I say, dissent, what's the ******* point of the board?

 

By your own logic those highly experienced professionals signed Lita and Kennedy!!!

It is a discussion board so not surprising that people with different views discuss stuff.


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Did I say there wasn't? I'm fed up of listening to the cloud cuckoo land brigade moaning day after day. Are you saying I'm not allowed to react? No? Thanks.

 

Cloud cuckoo land? Because some folk are concerned we might be asking a bit too much of Hecky and his appear thin squad?

Personally, I'm at the stage where nowt I do or say will change it so what will be will be but if I see a thread that interests me I'll stick my two pennorth in.

 

Yes and they saw that it was nonsensical and moved on with another plan. Would you have preferred they hadn't?
It is a discussion board and I do feel I'm within my rights to complain about the constant moaning from a certain few. Feel free to keep on moaning. I'll feel free to challenge it.