10pm Curfew

When you said this I was curious. So I plotted the following. While it did almost treble in 7 days at one point, I do agree with you that there's not enough of a trend there to make such an assertion.

 

There's been no mention of doubling from one day to the next, just doubling over 7-8 days.

 

Scientists just present modelling based on analysis it’s up to politicians to make political decisions. Scientists are generally experts in a very specific field. The analysis they gave was that the virus would spread exponentially without action. They didn’t ever indicate that cases would double for the next 1000 years I guess they thought people would understand that without the need for explanation.


the decisions the govt made based on that analysis are their decisions not the scientists. The daft 10 o clock curfew is summat they cooked up. The failure is on the tories not on scientists.

 

Absolutely, it was done to make a point and to make the nation pay attention again so in that respect it worked. We all know it was ****** but we don’t need DB3K blatantly lying about what they said though.

 

They are scientists with an independent view advising the Government - up to the point at which they are put out on their own, in a Government organised press conference, with no elected representatives present at which point they become representatives of the State and at that point they should have a moral and ethical duty to represent facts and not silly scaremongering fantasy projections which have zero basis in empirical evidence from anywhere in the world.

Any reasonable person would call these "lies" rather than "projections". .

 

The picture doesn't show for me mate, and I'd be interested to see it - any chance you can try again?

 

Try the direct link: https://i.imgur.com/EjztFJs.png

Or I'll also try uploading it, but that often compresses it too much.

 

No-one's said that they would double in size from one day to the next have they? I've heard certain periods of time mentioned for doubling, but not 24 hours.

 

They started it !

 

That’s not true. Look at the table I posted previously.

You could argue the 2x and 3x numbers were anomalies and not a trend and I’d be inclined to agree (although I still think the current trend is worrying) but the number of positive cases did on multiple occasions double over the span of 7 days.

 

My Dad used to say,"well I'm bloody finishing it" and slap mine and my sisters arses.

 

But it wasn't a prediction it was a 'could be secenario' although it was the only possible outcome shown. It was misleading to say the least.

 

Interesting thanks - so it's happened on only 4 days of the pandemic so far. And those days do look like slightly odd statistical outliers as then most times the date 7 days later is actually lower than the one that caused a move into the "red zone".

What happens (and I know you have a proper job, so tell me to F.O. if you're busy!) if you take the rolling 7 day average I wonder?

 

The 7 day average is the right half of the table!

I have updated it though and added 'days to double' and 'days to treble' at the daily rate of increases.

 

Also, this is only showing from the 11th August. Not all the pandemic. Although case data was not reliable for the first spike, so not sure it would be possible to backdate it

 

I hope Parliament are able to start voting on Covid policy soon. Hopefully the numbers will cause the measure to be thrown out after the three week period.