Aintree Day One

The one negative Tom Scudamore. Total toss er. Just backed Adaggio.

 

Here's a bit of a rough draft regarding the National itself on Saturday.

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- Take out anything younger than 8 and older than 11. (DEFINITELY RED, TAKING RISKS, THE LONG MILE, BLAKLION, SUB LIEUTENANT, VIEUX LION ROUGE).

Eliminate anything that hasn't won over at least 3 miles (TOUT EST PERMIS, BALKO DES FLOS, SHATTERED LOVE, CLASS CONTI, FARCLAS, MINELLA TIMES).

That's a quarter of the field gone, either through inexperience or being a little 'long in the tooth'. You also need the necessary stamina to win over this marathon distance, so anything yet to win over a minimum of three miles should be ignored.

- Draw a line through anything that has failed to complete in the race before. I don't like horses that have had bad experiences in this unique race (BALLYOPTIC, LAKE VIEW LAD, ALPHA DES OBEAUX, DOUBLE SHUFFLE, AMI DESBOIS)

- Eliminate anything that hasn't finished in the top 3 in a race with more more 20 runners (BRISTOL DE MAI, TALKISCHEAP, MISTER MALARKY, KIMBERLITE CANDY, SHATTERED LOVE, JETT, CANELO, GIVE ME A COPPER, HOGANS HEIGHT).

The reasoning behind these 2 categories are that a horse must prove that they can survive and run well amongst the hustle and bustle of a large field, and a fall or a pulled up in the race previously could leave a mark.

So, we are now left with....

CHRIS'S DREAM
YALA ENKI
BURROWS SAINT
MAGIC OF LIGHT
ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS
ANIBALE FLY
ANY SECOND NOW
OK CORRAL
POTTERS CORNER
MILAN NATIVE
DISCORAMA
CLOTH CAP

There's 12 horses there, which is probably double the amount I would like to have a punt on. I'll upset Orsen by taking out CLOTH CAP, because I simply can't back anything at a single figure price in this race. It may bite me, but that's life.

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS doesn't really go on the good ground - he prefers soft, so I'll take him out. Down to 9 now and we're getting there.

Next, I'll eliminate anything that has never experienced these fences before - not necessarily by running in this particular race, but either in The Sefton/Becher Chase etc. This removes CHRIS'S DREAM, BURROWS SAINT, ANY SECOND NOW, OK CORRAL, POTTERS CORNER and MILAN NATIVE.

And there we are, down to 3.

ANIBALE FLY - 25/1
MAGIC OF LIGHT - 14/1
DISCORAMA - 16/1

If you had to push me for the winner, I'd go for MAGIC OF LIGHT - but any of the above wouldn't surprise me.

 

Had a treble today

Monmiral 2.20 Clan Des Obeaux 2.50 McFabulous 3.25.

2 down 1 to go

 

Clan Des Obeaux... was like free money that, happy now!

 

Cloth Cap £20 win
Burrows Saint £2.50 e/w
Acapella Bourgeois £2.50 e/w
Kiberlite Candy £2.50 e/w
Shattered Love £2.50 e/w
Class Conti £2.50 e/w
Canelo £2.50 e/w.

Just had Clan Des Obeaux so off the mark.

 

Scudamore was on Adagio wasn't he?

 

Best of luck mate. I'm on Mcfabulous too fingers crossed.

 

Yeah thought it was best horse in race. Scudamore was only negative. Thought back the horse not the jockey. Went against my gut and lost. Hope he rides Cloth Cap better on Saturday.

 

I tend to back the horse but some jockeys do make me nervous about my money

 

Mind you if Jonjo O'Neill Jnr or a decent jockey was on Cloth Cap it would be shorter.

 

Happy to see Skelton on one of my horses. Blackmore, Hughes, Frost I also like for jumps. On flat I like Dettori, WJ Lee, Kirby De Sousa and Doyle

 

In the 1:45 I was on Hitman and Eldorado Allen e/w.
2:20 Adagio.
2:50 Clan Des Obeaux.
3:25 I've backed Mcfabulous and Buveur D'Air e/w too.
4:05 Billaway and Samtagel e/w.
4:40 Getaway Trump and Doastal Phil e/w.
5:15 Elle Est Belle.

 

On the flat I like Atzeni, De Sousa, Doyle and Dettori. Over jumps I follow trainers more than jockeys. First string tends to be majority Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins then look to Hobbs, Elliott, O'Neill and De Bromhead. Third string Williams, Smith and King. I have pecking orders.

 

I had Buzz there at 20s. Would have pissed it if it wasn't for the loose horse. Gutted.

 

I thought it badly hampered Buveur D'Air too mate.

 

There'll be some loose horses on Saturday.
My last one was pulled up. Brilliant!

 

And now a faller. You can't make it up sometimes!!!

 

When you've had a decent bet on your strongest fancy at 9s. They punt it into 5s. It then finishes 2nd to one at 66s.

Love it.

 

Bit flummoxed with this, Mr SD! I think Tom is an excellent and experienced jockey, and an even better bloke! Articulate, and from a great racing dynasty. All about opinions of course, but I have to say I'd much sooner have Tom on Cloth Cap with all his experience (he's 2 from 2 on this one) than Jonjo Junior, who still has much to learn!

 

Just never took to him. He seems to ride a lot of nice horses but doesn't win that many races. Each to their own. I like Harry Skelton but didn't like him too much on Elle est Belle