All Adults Vaccinated

It appears that the covid complication was more rampant april may. (Causes of death)

Average deaths otherwise remain constant and in line with every year

Is how I see that.

 

Looks pretty obvious to me, subtract the COVID deaths from the all deaths and you get pretty well spot on correlation with the 5-year average deaths....

Edit - In other words without COVID it would have been a pretty average year. No massive increases in deaths from other causes.

 

Its also incomplete - the figures for December are too low. In fact, they haven't actually been formally released yet.

 

Probably caused by a the reduction in deaths from Flu (normally in winter) due to social distancing and masks etc?

 

It doesn't work anything like that.

The Queen is currently 94. You could reasonably expect her to live to be over 100. Its the same for many others over the age of 80. They don't just sit around waiting to hit average life expectancy and keel over. The distribution is a bell curve, with low numbers at 0-16, and a peak between 75-85 (different for males and females) before tapering off again to low numbers above 100. The Wellcome Trust found early on that the average Covid death would be expected to live another 10 years.

 

Flu, dementia, cancer, heart attacks, traffic accidents, industrial accidents and most of the other major causes of death were all down in 2020. It was a relatively mild winter, and not too extreme summer.

 

No. They haven't changed. It's just that people prefer to quote anecdotal evidence rather than official statistics because it fits their core beliefs. You must have realised that has been the case throughout this pandemic, to the point where you can be abused for linking to official figures. It's not going to change, people want to be controlled, it's in their mindset, so anything that challenges those fundamental beliefs results in cognitive dissonance, they become stressed and lash out.

 

Looking at the latest figures, it looks like the distribution hasn't changed as much as I was fearing a couple of weeks ago, but the rates in all age groups above 45 has increased in the last couple of weeks. Last time I posted this graph the scale went up to 4 and now its 8, so double the numbers admitted in a fortnight.

 

My knowledge on most subjects is minimal but I earn a living from a combination of maths and mortality analysis believe it or not.

The media messaging, particularly from the BBC, is that this current wave of the epidemic is far more prevalent in younger people with a few interviews with medical professionals making the comment that there are more younger COVID patients in hospital. In pure fact this is the case, there are more younger people in hospital. However, the proportions between age groups has been broadly consistent, just that this time around there are nearly 50% more hospitalisations.

On the subject of the likelihood of death in any one year the probability is available for UK annuitants from the Continuous Mortality Investigation by the institute of actuaries. Although many factors impact longevity the biggest factor is age. To put this in context the life expectancy for a man aged 80 is around 8 years, at 90 this falls to 4 years and 100 it is 2 years. These are very approximate numbers and will be impacted by lots of other factors.

In reality the observed statistic for death is always 0% right up to the final year when it is 100% for any single trial.

 

This is happening.
https://apple.news/AeyJPOb31Qne9nF3iFKYoAg

As an aside, if you look at the regional figures, the North is doing better than the South in terms of vaccinations.

 

Because it doesn’t fit anyone’s narrative that infection control in the NHS is abysmal/non-existent. It’s almost like masks don’t work.

 

They haven't a clue what they're doing have they.

Matt Hancock 5pm: over 80s are done in Slough so now we're moving on to their over 70s.

Matt Hancock a few hours later: erm no we're not we're diverting resources to finish the over 80s.

It really is the most inept government in living memory

 

Just a thought, you can divert resources AND continue to vaccinate over 70s (more slowly than otherwise). Who’d have thought it!

 

So it's still a postcode lottery like I said then.

If over 80s account for such a significant number of the deaths then it's criminal to say that just because you live in one area you can be 85 and left at risk for an extra month while people in Slough aged 70 are protected because the government continued to prioritise the 70 year old Slough public before the 85 year old Kent public.

 

Fair do's but a couple of points. I did say the lack of media coverage was the issue with the Dutch Govt but like, I said, if it had been the UK Govt and reported, the group I refer to on here, would have been 'all over it like a rash'.
Secondly, and unfortunately, regarding comparisons of a handful on this BB with the Trumpists is valid in as much as some of the stuff on here borders unfounded conspiracy theories that the Govt WILL remove workers rights, WILL lower food standards etc, without any actual evidence, instead relying on their own prejudices. Personally I prefer to wait for things to unfold or have clear evidence of intent. We had some on here stating categorically that it was Johnson' s intention all along to go for a no deal Brexit. Similarly there are those on here who categorically state the proposed levelling up strategy to balance the UK is a lie. Again without actual proof either way. The hatred and cynicism is actually self defeating unless some people get some sort of perverse pleasure in moaning. I suppose that old expression... 'He's never happy unless he has summat to moan about' rings true for some this board.
P.S. I am not moaning but merely observing- although this board would be a happier place if people could discuss stuff in a a less heated atmosphere.

 

I think the clear evidence of intent is that they have said it. Maybe not the party officially but it's members and MPs have been quoted saying it

 

But surely that show the ineptitude of the logistics programme they have set out.

My Mums 84 and not heard a thing. In some areas, I think we can all guess where they are, they’re on to 70+. No large scale centres set up in Yorkshire, some GPs only started to receive the Vaccine over the weekend where in other areas they’d had it for weeks.