Big jump again today to 562 deaths

Pretty much how mine looked (not near the pc now243
BTW I’d like to think it’s wrong and that we’ll see the plateau sooner rather than later.

 

We have a finite population and the virus doesn't kill everyone, so if you went as far as May and you did it for cases as well as deaths you'd find you had more cases than the population of the country. The increase in deaths will slow down and then will begin to decrease we just don't know when yet. You can't tell when you're on the upward trajectory.

 

The sooner the antibody test is available the better, that is the only real magic bullet to stop it's rise in the long run. once this is fully tested all NHS & care workers & ancillary staff need to be tested first. Then the volunteer army next.

 

Don’t think Italy’s had over a thousand in one day could be wrong.

 

Yes I think that's going to be the most important test going forward.

 

The spread of a virus and the number of deaths can’t be done as a pure geometric progression. Extrapolating current cases, 29,474, it would only take 29 days for the whole country to be infected at a growth rate of 30%.

The same 29 days on deaths would see the deaths on day 29 hit 1.4 million.

Best thing to do is stay indoors and stay safe.

 

Or the initial test was a false positive.

 

Or the second one is or the middle one a false negative.

 

I feel like we need some balance from all the doom mongers in this thread.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

I read that one of the problems in assessing the threat is that 1500/1600 people die every day in the UK and how many of those deaths shown to be infected with CV19 would die anyway of other causes? Or turn it on its head, how many people who would ordinarily be OK are now in the firing line?

 

See my post above- 10% of everyone over 80 will die this year anyway, the interesting thing will be how many extra people have died after this above the 600k who die every year anyway.

 

I think it wasn't factored in during the Imperial College estimates. It's a hard one to ponder as everything changes during a lockdown; people not driving, exercising differently, stressed out etc.

 

I wish the media would push the more balanced reporting a bit more.

 

That’s not balanced
It’s conjecture

 

That’s not a balanced view
It’s total b0l l0x

 

You are Adam Hinchcliffe

£5 please.

 

'islalatory' - the idilic solitude shared between a man and his Lagavulin.

 

What isn't? The future is a mystery to us all.

 

Only in a completely abstract sense.

In the real world we have a mechanism that’s visible as ‘cause and effect’ which makes some things very predictable.
1+1 =2
It will be tomorrow and the day after
Also see Newton’s laws etc
The sun will rise in the east etc

none of these are a mystery to us, they have a basis in science, and if you don’t know when the sun will rise, there’s mathematical calculations that can predict it to the minute.

 

I like reading your posts I really do. But I'm now going to stop responding to you. I am just giving my opinion on things and I'm happy to discuss things with anyone and often wrong on many issues. However I feel you are looking for a argument, I don't want one.
Now maybe that's just the way I'm interrupting it and I've got it wrong. If I have I apologise, but I don't want to continue the back and forth.
I will continue to read your posts and i have no problem with you responding to, or disputing anything I say. But for the moment I will cease to respond. I hope you understand and I wish well. Take care and stay safe.