Big jump again today to 562 deaths

Considerably more. Current worldwide mortality rate/case is just over 5.1% and around 15-20% require ICU. I know that isn't completely accurate (but is rising), but that works out about 3.3million deaths in the UK. With the NHS only having under 200,000 beds, it would be nearer 5-6million.

 

Doesn't bear thinking about really but we still have the 'denier's'.

 

There's a reason for the age old saying

"Avoid them like the plague"

The only way to burn this out is to stop it spreading-physical distancing is our one and only defence.

Stick to the rules and we should eventually see this thing die out even though it may take months and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

At this moment there is no other choice. 1,131 deaths in the last 48 hours in the UK surely should make even the most brainless "it's on telly and it doesn't apply to me, I'll do what I want and walk the same dog 10 times a day then down to the pub for a lock-in" think again?

I'm not holding out much hope...

 

My worry is social unrest and poverty rather than the economy although obviously they're interlinked. But I'm also aware of the point you made. Personally I'd have stricter isolation for the vulnerable than we've got and less for those at not such a high risk, although I'd need to write a hell of a lot more than I can be bothered to explain how that can be done and I don't think for a minute it wouldn't be without problems.

 

Let's put this in perspective. on a "normal" day in the UK there are (on average) 3694 deaths. of the 500+ who died from coronavirus yesterday - some (not all) of them would have been in that figure. We allowed 50,000 people to die in the last flu outbreak. Yes we need to stop it rising too quickly until the NHS can manage cases. We need to get an antibody test so people who have had it can get back to work, and we need to test NHS staff to get as many of them to work as possible. We are now risking permanent damage to the economy so this "lockdown" needs to last for as little time as possible. Sweden have not taken these measures and shops and businesses remain open. The vulnerable and elderly need protection.

 

And yet people don't think about the 3694 people who die every day on average in the UK.

 

The country I would be tempted to watch carefully with regard to the trends on Case Fatality Ratio and Mortality Rates would be Germany. Purely on the basis that they have tested more of the public than other nations (relative to overall population). Whilst there is still a significant error margin, as there is for WHO calculations too, I think Germany is more likely to give a truer representation. All said, until the pandemic is over, its very difficult to project towards an accurate mortality rate.

 

People are trying to read into a single days figures way too much.

Yesterday on its own doesn’t mean however many million dead by Easter.

Today on it’s own doesn’t mean we’ve plateaud. You have to taker a wider trend for it to be statistically significant.

 

Well said, death has been pushed to the fringes of our society for so long, when it is brought to the forefront and people are made to face their mortality then people lose their minds - "all deaths must be avoided at all costs" kind of attitude.

 

Surely these potential 1,000s that will die every day from Corona virus (a very small % who may have died anyway) will be in addition to the 3,000 odd dying from other illnesses? Increasing the death rate by around 30% per day.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

Lots of official stats there to read. The other week over 10,000 people died and 1% was because of Coronavirus. That's going to change a lot over the next two months.

 

Sweden is an interesting one. They dont have the same population or density of population than other places, so that mitigates the issue somewhat. That said it's either brave or foolhardy, and from what I've read it's causing a great deal of concern in the medical community who are strongly asking for a lockdown. Sweden's death count has gone from:

10th March - 1 death
29th March - 110 deaths
= 18 days with an increase of 109 deaths

29th March - 110 deaths
1st April - 239 deaths
= 3 days with an increase of 128 deaths.

I'd hope it's a blip, but only time will tell.

 

Other consequences of the lockdown will be to reduce deaths in some areas - street stabbings and assaults, car accidents, pollution. Other categories will increase - potentially drugs abuse, domestic abuse.

 

It's not remotely accurate at all. You are looking at the mortality rate of those tested not those who had the Virus as that is unknown. You can't then take that figure and just apply it to the whole population.

 

The average is more like 1600 with 600,000 in total for the year.

 

My 'economy' comment was a lazy catch-all to include poverty, tax increases and other measures required to get the country back on it's feet. It's all hypothetical anyway.

Just like during the Brexit debates few of us were economists, now few (none?) of us are virologists.

 

I think people are trying to minimise 'avoidable' deaths not all deaths, imho. To suggest that covid-19 is not accelerating deaths is simply wrong. I also think that some people in lower risk groups are convinced they'll be fine. Not all of them will be. A proportion those who get it and recover will be left with cronic health problems.

Anyhow, the government will do what they will do regardless of my views.

 

As I keep saying whenever you write this, by far the most significant drop in the number of deaths will be from terminal and chronic diseases.

There are less than two thousand road deaths each year. Less than a thousand murders. Combined that's less than 0.5 percent of all deaths. The biggest rise in deaths will be those who have had operations cancelled and that will be significant.

 

I once had a cold.