Interesting analysis posted on Twitter, which gives a very good graphical analysis of what we've all witnessed this season with regard to how much worse things would be if it hadn't been for the performances of Brad Collins in goal. The key thing to look for is the distance above the black diagonal line, so only Hull City have anything comparable. Based on actual goals conceded vs xG of shots on target, we're 6 goals better off than expectation this season. Hull have the same difference but on a lower number of expected goals against them. The fact that we're by far the highest in terms of xG conceded is also very telling about our defensive performance so far this season.
Interesting stats. Confirms what we already know I guess. Hopefully not too many clubs below that line that may have a couple of million to spend in January are looking at this.
Shows why Poya is taking the approach that he is doing. Though the effect of it is minimal so far, given the chances Peterboro were still able to create.
I don’t want to sound like a statistical geek but the absolute difference is not a great measure. Where a keeper has more shots to save the dispersion in absolute numbers will be larger. That’s why the chart shows increasing dispersion as it progresses to the right. If you analyse our expected points based on xg we are ahead despite only having 12 points. This reinforces how great a season Collins is having.
Don't see how we can "feel hard done by" as the Twitterer suggests. We've been absolute garbage and are exactly where we deserve to be, in fact we should be lower... No amount of statistics or charts will alter that.
Player of the season already by a country mile. Might aswell give him the trophy before Saturday's match.
I almost added a sentence to my original post to the effect of "has anyone ever won Player Of The Season before Christmas?"
It just shows there are lies, damn lies and statistics, the xg differential from infogol is just a single point for BFC for the first 20 games. Matches that stand out with a different result to the xg are the Coventry game when we won 1-0 but the xg was 0.4 v 1.9. The opposite was Bristol City away which was a 2-1 defeat but the xg was 0.5 v 2.1. Bristol’s finishing was clinical. Barnsley’s xg score of 0.07 v Bournemouth is one of the lowest I’ve ever seen. It just shows, even when applying stats the construct of the statistics can be open to interpretation.
