Cheltenham Festival 2024 Megathread

Great post, Fonzie. It's always good to see someone give their reasoning. It means sticking your neck out, but to me, trying to solve the puzzle like this is half the fun of racing.

 

First day declarations are out. I find it hard to see beyond State Man in the Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth in the Mares' Hurdle. The Supreme and the Arkle look very open and the two big handicaps look impossible. At this stage I think I'd be keen on Corbett's Cross in the Grand Annual (5.30). Only about 2/1, but he looks to have been plotted for the race. Think I'll wait for 'BOG' on raceday though.

 

Got my refund on Echoes In Rain today! Inexplicably declared for the Mares Hurdle. Ah well, can't have everything.

I think with the dead eight in the Champion I'll be playing against State Man with Zarak The Brave and Colonel Mustard - both each way. Its a horrible race and I can see both of them running into places at 20s and 40s respectively. I can honestly see State Man getting turned over.

Looking at the rest of the final decs, it's a poor day really - one which is traditionally the 'best' day. The Supreme looks pretty good, with any of the top 5 or 6 in the market capable of winning. The Arkle is terrible - with this seasons novices looking below average. The Champion I've already spoken about and the Mares has a long odds on - although I'll be taking her on with Marie's Rock. I remember Annie Power and Benie De Deux - this race throws up odd results. The NH Chase is a watered down parody of its self and is no more than a RSA reserve race.

Apart from the two exciting handicaps, it's poor imo.

 

Yes - it used to be a right cavalry charge. They changed the race conditions after the 2019 running, when only four finished. Still, it's relatively uncompetitive nature may give rise to a bet opportunity.

 

Very true - and I think your lad should win. Agree with waiting till the morning of the race too.

 

Agreed on the poor day.
Bet365 are offering Marie’s Rock ew first 4 at 9/1 assuming not many withdrawals.
Firefox in first has chance now back to 2 miles.

 

My observation for this morning. We'll wait to see how the Day2 and beyond cards look, but just viewing Tuesday's card, it's to be hoped they drop the much-floated idea of a five-day Festival. While I've no doubt it would be a commercial success, the quality of the racing would be diluted even further. I'm with the camp that says that even now, the programme has been tweaked to the extent that many of the good horses are able to avoid each other.

 

Gevery is down to 25s fom 80s hopefully he gets a place, tmorra i've got all my ante post still running so i'm happy,
Firefox, Gaelic Warrior, Gala Mercaeu, Liari, Gevery, Irish Point, an Salvador Ziggy.
Good luck everyone.

 

I'm liking the look of Sa Majeste in the Coral Cup (2.50) Wednesday. 5/1 favourite at the moment, but I could see him becoming a 'plunge' horse. It looks like Mullins has been protecting his handicap mark since his win over Noble Yeats in December. State Man won the County Hurdle in similar circumstances a couple of years ago. He is odds on for the Champion Hurdle tomorrow!

 

Good call, good e/way bet, doubled it up with Jalon d'odairies

 

Bedtime..
1.30 Slade Steel - 2nd to Ballyburn recently and may still have more to offer. De Bromhead yard might be turning corner too (I got the ante post but am still doing e/w)
2.10 Matata e/w - This doesnt looks strong to me and this one is still capable of improving even if it has jumped left. British horse underrated - e/w (took it ante post)
2.50 Chianti Classico. Further potential over fences and stats so far look good e/w
3.30 State Man is the class here. Barring complete cook-up he will win. No bet for me but some may have ideas on the place
4.10 Lossiemouth - Suggested that the trip might find her out but she only has to find about 2 extra furlongs or so from previous and she has really good stats. E/W alternative for me is Maries Rock if she settles
4.50 Milan Tino - Good French form and good since arriving here. Knows the track and hasn't the same class of rivals as when beaten recently. Unless there are one or two big improvers lurking this looks like a good bet but its dodgy so e/w for me
5.30 Kilbeg King e/w. I know I know but if one looks at the stats for some of these he looks underrated if he brings his best hoof forward. Worth e/w I think

Good luck to one and all

 

Well, it may not be a vintage first day card folks,but it's still Cheltenham Day One! Spring is here (almost ) and the racing year starts today.

I've narrowed my betting interest down to one race in the end. That being the Supreme Novices' at 1.30. Looking at the form, I see the race as likely being between Slade Steel, Tullyhill, Mystical Power and Mistergif. Tullyhill is favourite, but his last three contests consisted of two maidens and a novice, whereas Slade Steel and Mystical Power have already won at Grade 2 level. Townend rides Tullyhill, but that is not necessarily significant, because Mark Walsh is JP McManus's retained jockey in Ireland. I think that Slade Steel is slightly more exposed than Mystical Power, who has been saved for this following that Grade 2 win in January. Watching that race at Punchestown, Mark Walsh was content to cruise round last of four for most of the race, but surged through between the last two, showing both speed and stamina at the trip. He is by Galileo out of Annie Power, and not surprisingly, Brough Scott describes him as "the best-bred jumper that has ever raced." All that said, I have to have a saver on Mistergif, another Mullins inmate and the mount of Daryl Jacob (retained jockey for Munir and Suede). His win at Limerick came only in a maiden, but it was gained in stunning style, the winning margin being 18 lengths and claimer Kieren Callaghan never having to resort to his stick. The opposition was limited, but Mistergif could be anything. So it's Mystical Power (7/2) and Mistergif (11/1) for me. They combine at around 9/4 dutched. That equates to a 30%+ chance, whereas I reckon their combined chance may be nearer 50%.

I still think Corbett's Cross has been primed for the National Hunt Chase (5.30) but I've cooled on him from a betting point of view because I think Embassy Gardens and Salvador Ziggy are live dangers. I think State Man and Lossiemouth are unopposable. I find the Ultima (2.50) and the Boodles/Fred Winter (4.50) are insoluble! As KCP says above, Good luck to all!

 

Got a £20 no lose bet in the first race with Sky Bet. I suspect the Bet365 daily 10am super boost on the 3:30 will be offering evens on the heavy favourite that has no competition with Constitution Hill out.

 

Karia des blaises, has to be a contender in the 4,50 t'day, good luck, this will be my 8th an final bet of the day, hope i get a return it'll pay for mi day out in Carlisle, fingers crossed. enjoy the day dont overspend and good luck, wont be back till late so nite nite.

 

Cheers everyone.
It’s an enjoy the spectacle type of day other than a gambling day.
Firefox in first ( he’s finished in front of Ballyburn previously ) is main bet and EW on Marie’s Rock seems popular.
Bring on “the roar!”

 

I think this ground will be grim today - so I'm hugely against Lossiemouth over a trip she's never run at on soft. I'm also against State Man on the basis of his English form being a worse less than his Irish stuff - and again the ground.

Can't be bothered to write out the reasoning, but here are my plays today:

Tullyhill
Found A Fifty
The Goffer and Victorino
Nemean Lion and Colonel Mustard
Marie's Rock and Gala Marceau
An Braden Feasa
Apple Away

Good luck everyone.

 

Spot on, DB. Such generosity must not be spurned!

 

Are you sure about the Skybet offer? Appears to be £5 max refund. Double check T&Cs.

 

Found a fifty 210
Palamon 450
Mr vango 530

 

1:30 Mistergif.
2:10 Found A Fifty.
2:50 Eldorado Allen.
3:30 Lucia
4:10 Marie's Rock.
4:50 Batman Girac.
5:30 Kilbeg King.