Does the UK really think it's ready to exit lockdown?

Quick couple of charts to show how daily cases between Italy and the UK have risen and fallen. I've started the numbers from when the UK had 62 daily cases cases (10th March) and when Italy had 58 cases (27th Feb). Note: According to figures Italy has done approximately 786k more tests than the UK.

The second graph shows the above graph but snipped from the 8th April onwards (UK date) and adds two trendlines. I took this date as it leaves out the large spike in the UK data where care homes were added in). It shows roughly how little UK daily cases are slowing compared to Italian ones. Usual data limitations apply, but i'd say it's a decent enough guide to draw a comparison when talking about how numbers affect easing any 'lockdown'. Why is this? Well one possible factor is that Italy had a much more informal lockdown whereas we did not. Maybe.



Daily Cases - Italy and the UK: with Daily Trendline (taken from the 8th April UK data)

 

Can you state your sources please? If we had not had a 'lockdown' (shabby as it's been) tens of thousands of people would be dead now. We have had 11 staff test positive in the space of a week just on one ward only: one hospitalised.
This is the reality.

 

There's a big "could" there though.

 

Apparently for gloves some are natural rubber and some synthetic. Malaysia (unsurprisingly given its access to natural rubber) apparently makes 200bn of them each year. Interesting article here

 

Isn't the lockdown in general based on how many people "could" die?
Nobody knows the true facts so everything that's happened since January has been based on could

 

Boris out for a stroll with a cup of Costa Coffee....

 

I read somewhere yesterday that there was an initial estimate that there had been 8k deaths from non Covid related illnesses above what would normally have occured.

This article suggests by April 3rd there had been 3k excess deaths.

 

If the R number gets much above 1 the the hospitals will be overun and not able to cope and if that happens the knock on impact to people ugh other illnesses and the economy in general will be catastrophic. The lockdown was meant to buy the govt time to allow them to plan. To get a test trace and isolate regime in place. To get the right PPE In place for all workers. To look at best practice across the world. To recruit staff to run the Nightingale Hospitals. Unfortunately the Govt is ****

 

Germany's R rate is back above 1, after relaxing some of their measures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...b7d4735c8cf7066bdfa677&pinned_post_type=share

 

This I can not dispute.

 

In South Korea, where a decline in new cases had prompted the government to loosen up, Seoul shut down thousands of nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of infections were linked to club goers who went out last weekend as the country relaxed its social-distancing guidelines.

Many of the infections were linked to a 29-year-old man who visited three nightclubs before testing positive. Mayor Park Won-soon said health workers were trying to contact some 1,940 people who had been at the three clubs and other places nearby.

The mayor said gains made against the virus are now threatened “because of a few careless people.”

Unfortunately we have seen careless behaviour from many people during the UK lock-down lite so I am dreading the next few weeks if stay at home restrictions were lifted. Many people will view it as permission to do as they please, with potential disastrous consequences

 

All tinned groceries (except for heinz beans) flour,dried pasta,rice and products associated with these items,pet foods,soap,bleach,antibacterial sprays,toilet rolls,kitchen rolls,baby wipes,nappies etc ,

admittedly toilet rolls have finally started re-appearing this week

 

i'm unsure as to exactly what we can and cannot manufacture jay,all i know is that it is phenominal the amount of shipping containers that arrive from china and that,in reality they have got us by the ballax as far as trade is concerned

as a side note, you and most others are well aware about the lack of availability of many food items, well since the lockdown started the firm i drive for (class 1 hgv) have continued with many of their existing contracts and you will be surprised to know that Jacksons bread at hull continue to export bread (this goes into shipping containers frozen),a poultry factory the top side of halfax at cullingworth continue to export chicken (again frozen),Xpo logistics at bradford continue to export ambient groceries on behalf of marks and spencers, these are just three examples of firms exporting whilst or warehouses are empty, oh and i forgot about a run of 40 foot containers exporting paracetomol,

I appreciate companies have contracts abroad to fullfil but surely the same applies here too, i just seemed completely barmy to be exporting goods during a pandemic whilst shelves are/were empty here.

 

maybe we should have a referendum on it

 

205 UK deaths announced today. The lowest daily total for ages and even for the weekend lag brigade it's much lower than other Sundays.

 

I'm not arguing against a lock-down. I'm arguing for rational discussion that looks at society as a whole, not just one issue, as there's precious little.

This is an article about cancer
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303

Name the problem and I'll find you an article on it.

 

Pretty much bang on on all counts

 

It's just hit me that this will be the reason he's making the announcement on a Sunday. It's the lowest day for announcing deaths - so it won't look as bad when we're staying alert or alive or whatever it is.