Free Trade Post Brexit?

I don't think anybody's going to be particularly bothered about a budget shortfall of £218m a week. It's 56c per EU resident or, to put it another way, £132m a week less than the extra money we'll be spending on the NHS.

 

It’s sad that you really buy into the British exceptionalism argument. The EU won’t budge because they don’t need to and are probably glad to get rid of us. The empires gone mate.

 

Quite possibly from the extra income they get from taking a chunk of our services sector into the single market. Look at how much of the UK budget contribution comes from Financial Services, Legal Services, IT Services, etc, then just factor in a chunk of that going into the EU. Companies still need the services, still want the services and will still pay for the services, its just that UK-based countries won't be able to provide them, so the money will stay within the EU and a chunk of the taken tax will go from our government to theirs.

You want to try getting an appointment with an estate agent around Dublin or Frankfurt at the moment if you think that isn't already happening...

 

The pound has tumbled in the last 2 years and as such, you'd expect manufacturing output to increase. You'd also expect export sales to increase as we're cheaper to buy from. The levels are exceptionally modest though, and it highlights how little we actually make now, and what little we do make here, much is only finished, or the company is a subsid of an international business.

I tend to take a view of what I see and hear from direct sources as the media have their agendas and the majority of it is right to far right leaning.

From what I see and hear directly, companies are merging, making contingencies to move workforce overseas, considering cost cutting measures and redundancies.

Debts are generally rising, as they are ever so slowly transferred from the treasury to individuals, most of which are already impoverished. Inflation is dangerously high and supermarket prices on basic staples have risen 10-15% in the last year. More retailers are struggling and more businesses have entered administration or have agreed deals with creditors, or have reported profit warnings, let alone some well known businesses that no longer exist.

Interest rates are in danger of rising as the faux employment figures mask the issue of underemployment and casual arrangements that don't necessarily translate to paid wages.

The mood I generally hear is a mixture of concern and anxiety.

Of course there are still people and companies doing well, just as there always will be whatever stage of an economic cycle. But it's not a rose garden for sure.

 

In more general terms it’s strengthened the EU which is more valuable than our financial contribution which will be covered to a large extent by financial services relocation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...poll-eu-referendum-consequences-a8286296.html

 

Having seen at first hand in the last year, the amount of building in Luxembourg, Rome, Tallinn and Riga is pretty sizeable. From new airports, extensions and tram networks, to large new offices and commercial buildings. Having struck up numerous conversations with various people, many are seeing brexit as a wonderful opportunity to increase commerce and enter wider markets.

And of course, as time passes, and EU countries get wealthier and gain our lost growth, they'll take our place as net contributors to the EU budget.

 

I suppose one good thing if/when we rejoin is that we will be net beneficiaries of the EU budget. We already have something like 8 of the most deprived areas in Western Europe and this will get worse.

 

Read the article...The Germans don't seem to view it like you do.

 

Actually, if you read the article then the Germans are willing to pay more, but the other net contributors are more reluctant.

 

That's the point I was making....only 56 cents a day apparently....yet no one (else) wants to pay....I'm not sure if it's in that article but it's clear the Germans are only willing to put a substantial amount in with a lot of strings attached.

 

Not withstanding the pros/cons of leaving or staying, the arguments are academic because that ship has sailed. I have one particular concern on post Brexit regarding future trade deals. The EU and UK currently have the highest food standards in the world. The US currently allows pigs to be injected with 'Ractopamine', its cattle with growth hormones like 'Flexx', it washes its chicken in chlorine and allows the milk from infected (mastitis and other bovine diseases) dairy cows to be used in the food chain. Other countries like Australia & NZ also allow some of these UK banned practices. Will we have to drop our current high food standards for a good trade deal and begs the question 'Is the nations health a price worth paying for a good trade deal?'.

 

Ironic many of the areas with lowest number of migrants and biggest beneficiaries of EU funding voted to leave. As long as I can still visit Europe and regularly get out of the carnage from leaving the EU, I'll get through it.

 

We are not leaving Euratom as far as I am aware JC - in terms of the economic outlook - we may be worse off in a hard Brexit scenario but we will definitely be better off in a soft Brexit scenario - I think we will get a soft Brexit - too much to lose on both sides for a hard Brexit imo

 

Better tell Parrothead then as it breaches her red lines and was set out explicitly in the White Paper.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/euratom

Can you explain exactly how we will be better off in a soft Brexit scenario? Can you explain why you think we will get a soft Brexit?

BTW you still haven't answered what your job is? (rough occupation will do - not after specific details).

 

I am not sure which is the most depressing , a thread about Brexit or the january 17 transfer window , its a tough call , anybody got any thoughts ?

 

You don't seriously think I am going to tell you what I do - none of your business as I have no business asking you what you do - I don't even know you ffs - I have already told you why we will get a soft brexit - too many issues in the EU atm to cope with a hard brexit - a hard brexit means tariffs all round - that would decimate the German car industry - 14,000 people will lose their jobs - Spain relies on tourism, mainly from the Brits - they like many other countries within the EU they depend on our large trade deficit with them to keep their economies going - the EU will have to address quantitative easing pdq - This involves selling the bonds it holds on the open market. This will cause the following - A fall in the price of bonds, due to increased supply on the market. -As bond prices fall, the bond yield will increase. Therefore, we will see rising interest rates and a decrease in cash reserves in banks. If banks buy government bonds, they will have a fall in their cash reserves; this could lead to a fall in the money supply, lower growth and possibly even deflation - these and many more reasons is why we will get a soft Brexit - there is simply too much risk for the EU - we will benefit from a soft brexit as we will have more or less what we have now in terms of trade with the EU but by the time we leave we will have trade agreements set up with many other countries throughout the world - I am not saying that we will not be effected economically on a hard brexit, of course we will, but the EU will also - it is a no win situation for both sides which is why imo it will not happen.

 

Who are these other countries that we will set trade deals up with as we finally execute Brexit?

 

Unemployed or pensioner then?

My job is actually listed in my avatar under occupation - although obtusely. I'm an IT architect, and design computer systems to meet business needs, so the interface between business and technology.

I was asking what you do as I was going to give you an estimate of how long you have left working in your chosen profession before you get automated out of it. Roughly 3-5 million UK jobs (think call centres, driving, etc) will be taken out of the market within the next 5-20 years as a result of this. The worst case free-market low regulation Brexit as per Liam Fox, Patrick Minford, etc, will also destroy manufacturing and farming in the UK - making another few million extra unemployed. Trade deals with India will destroy whats left of our home-grown services industry (they do it a lot cheaper although you can now be paid more in Mumbai or Bangalore than in Sheffield at the top end). And remember that we have a Tory government that quite literally don't give a **** how it affects you as an individual (except to try to keep you off benefits).

The German car industry will take a hit from the hardest possible Brexit, but will make that up from sales to emerging markets without much of an issue - China, India, and the rest of Asia will more than cover the fast-falling new car sales from the UK.

The Spanish/Greek/Portuguese tourist industry will suffer a loss of British tourists, but could quite easily make a nice wedge from visas. The Brits will still go to Spain (if they can afford it) they will just have to pay extra for the privilege.

As for new trade deals. The realists are predicting 5-10 years to set up each new one unless you are going to take anything that is offered. The EU already have ~700 deals in place that we are giving up voluntarily.

We as a country will be affected badly by a hard Brexit. The EU will be in a position to take a lot of our industry and services and could actually benefit from our losses. Our only bargaining chip is to walk away, leaving us with WTO rules, without even a schedule, so we will only get a soft Brexit if the government grow up and start coming up with solutions instead of stirring up trouble with Russia.

 

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one - I respect your opinion but I think you are wrong - time will tell who is correct - so lets leave it at that for now

- neither pensioner or unemployed by the way -

 

May has said we are leaving Euratom