GE October 15th

Great post.

Labour will tank in Barnsley if there's a GE - JC would do so much more for our area than the other parties, especially that cretin Farage, but a lot of Barnsley folk will believe what they read in the Express, Sun and Mail about him being a terrorist sympathizer and communist, and vote instead for the Brexit Party because they're misguided enough to believe it's the only choice.

 

Like I say bud, there’s no possible positive outcome now. We’re damned if we do, damned if we don’t.

Leaving will be a disaster I agree - but I don’t think it will ever end if we don’t. We need a resolution and a future, and I don’t think this ever goes away until folk see what leaving causes - or doesn’t.

 

I hope you’re right but I have no confidence in that there wont be.

There’s some very strong feeling about this and it wouldn’t take too much to whip folk into a frenzy, and I certainly wouldn’t put it past certain aforementioned politicians to do that if they didn’t get their own way.

 

but where is Corbyn in all this - May was on the ropes for over two years - Johnson is down - why does Corbyn choose not to land a sucker punch?
The Labour policy at the GE (when it comes) is not to campaign to remain or leave but to campaign for another referendum.
The Tory leavers will vote for Johnson/Farage - the Tory remainers may well vote for Swinson.
Where does the Labour remainers vote go - to a Labour party which doesn't have commitment to remain, or to Swinson who is committed to Remain.
And what about the Labour leavers - there are an awful lot of us! - will we vote for an MP who has turned his back on what the majority of his constituents voted for - for a party that wants to re-run the referendum?
My guess is that many Labour leavers will end up voting for Farage.

 

I agree. The vast majority of Tory voters will stick with the Tories or switch to Farage. A significant number of the traditional Labour vote who aren't really socialist at heart will also move to Farage.
The intricacies of tactical voting in this coming election are going to be profound. Maybe I'm not giving the percentage of the Tory vote who want to remain the credit for having the sense to vote elsewhere on this occasion.

 

The Labour policy at the GE (when it comes) is not to campaign to remain or leave but to campaign for another referendum.

And another referendum will give an overwhelming mandate to remain - that's why leavers are so scared of another referendum.

 

I don’t understand this obsession people have with which way Labour will campaign on Brexit. As long as they offer a fair vote now more detail is known about leaving then that’s fair enough, I don’t mind what they personally want, just that they do what is best for the U.K. Then, of course, there’s all matters that are not Brexit to consider and what is best for the U.K. there.

 

but you've missed a step - before there's another referendum Labour have to win the next election.
With so many people having strong and entrenched views on remain/leaving I doubt if a party that campaigns solely on having another referendum will do well.
(and don't be too sure about an overwhelming mandate to remain - )

 

i think i agree with every word said.

I absolutely think Jeremy Corbyn is the best option right now of the party leaders however i also think he should throw the press and the right wing a massive curve ball and resign. Imagine what they would do. imagine those who claim they wont vote labour whilst he's in charge. have it all thrown back at them in one hit.

 

you maybe can ask yourself what about the NHS, School, Transport and Welfare Care. Instead of focusing on this whole sh1tshow of brexit. which party are going to do the best for you and your family. i know where il be voting should the need arise soon.

 

What Brexit has done is split parties on new lines and that's added to existing factions in the two main parties in particular. But as we saw at the last GE, the main two parties hoovered up most of the vote while the smaller parties failed to make progress.

The tory vote is under pressure from multiple sides. From BP, from Labour (but less so) and from Lib Dems. But also in other seats, the possibility of independents, the sacked MPs from this week.

Labour is under pressure from Lib Dems and Tories/BP, but I suspect in many seats which just stacked additional vote last time (mine included) will stay red. What I don't see is how Labour make many gains.

I think whats most likely is splintering of vote rather than increasing of the current biggest two parties. There will be Labour and Tory voters shifting to the Lib Dems, indeed, in my local area, that seems to be the most common shift mentioned. But I understand the rest of the country is much different than a London Borough.

The subtle nuances of each seat combined with a GE manifesto combined with the leave remain schism is going to make this very delicately balanced.

 

Great post, Troff.

Another aspect to all this is what are we supposed to make of Major Dan's position? He doesn't like Corbyn and wasn't offered shadow responsibility (which he had under Miliband). He was strong remain, but appears to have changed his spots having now seen how his constituents voted. He recently joined with other Labour MP's (22 in total) in writing to Corbyn to oppose any policy to offer a second referendum. Would he even stand in a GE? Or is he waiting for his lifeboat to be enlarged to that of 'One Yorkshire' Mayor? If I want to advance the remain cause, or at the very least the softest of brexits, would I be better voting Lib-Dem? (Rhetorical). Some would say that would be a waste of time, but with Farage's Fascists standing and possibly splitting the Labour/Leaver vote, could the Lib-Dems not get in through the side door?

 

the main issue at the next GE will be Brexit - leavers will vote for the parties that campaigns to leave - remainers will vote for the party that campaigns to remain - they electorate will regard the election as another referendum

If Labour don't have a Brexit view/policy they aren't going to get many votes because people don't know what they're voting for.

(o/t a bit - the biggest mistake Corbyn made was to switch to a Remain position - the biggest concern for many of his present m.p.'s with an election looming is that they represent constituencies that voted leave.)

 

I like what he truly stands for, not what the right wing media like to portray him as. We would've been better off with someone such as Burnham, and it is a shame he went down the Mayor route. I'm not sure who I'd replace Corbyn with if he were to go, however I do believe he must resign if he loses the next GE. Labour needs to claw back voters and someone who can unite the party. Unfortunately the media have done a very good job on him.

 

Labour would be committing political suicide if they pinned their colours to the mast like you say. Staunch Tory remainers wouldn't vote Labour if they announced a remain manifesto. The best they can do is put it back to the people to decide now further info has come to light. They are not stupid, they are playing it very safely.

 

Excuse me, but I used to print the Dandy and Beano.

 

To stand on a Gen Election platform with just a promise of another referendum would be scandalous tactics by Corbyn. Parties need to be clear, leave or remain, not vote stealing like the slimeball lib dems always do..

Referendums are now consigned to history as a precedent has now been set by parliament to ignore them after promising to implement the decision. So remain or leave could win 52/48 now and it is still the same argument..

So in short, no sitting on the fence..

 

Doesn’t that ignore the vast majority of Labour voters who voted remain?

There’s been a huge amount of attention paid to Labour voting Brexiteers, as if the almost 70% of labour voters who voted remain don’t deserve representation.

It’s not about what a constituency voted, but about how many Labour voters in that constituency voted leave. Somewhere like Barnsley, all the Tory voters would vote leave, then there’s the UKIP / English National voters too. The swing away from Labour even if they lose all the Brexiteers isn’t that significant in a GE.

 

Vote stealing. How exactly are the Libdems vote stealing? They have a clear manifesto to remain.
What you mean is no one should be allowed to vote for anyone other than Tory or Labour.

 

TM - labour have shot themselves in the foot.
Brexit is massively at the forefront of the electorates mind - leavers will vote for a Johnson or Farage - Remainers for Swinson.
Few will vote Labour for another referendum because - they've had enough of Brexit and want it resolving, there's no certainty that the referendum result will be different to the last one, Labour didn't honour the result of the last referendum.