Get Boosted Now & ignore the last week.

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by DavidCurriesMullet, Dec 12, 2021.

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  1. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Only right to also share the South African scientist who was interviewed today (potentially the one who first discovered the variant? Not sure) where she was saying it is mild, our response is over the top, and it shouldn’t result in the need to visit hospital for the significant majority - you and old.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
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  2. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    This is well worth a read. The best I've seen it all explained yet.

    https://www.nytimes.com/article/omicron-coronavirus-variant.html
     
    pontyender, Dec 12, 2021
    #62
  3. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Marc, Dec 12, 2021
    #63
  4. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    attached as pdf for anyone hitting paywall
     

    Attached Files:

    Marc, Dec 12, 2021
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  5. Red

    Red Edge Active Member

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    Of course, and I've read a lot from SA. Mild for most can and does mean serious for many. I know you think it shouldn't and I hope it doesn't. It's the volume of those many in a short space of time where the problem is.
     
    Red Edge, Dec 12, 2021
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  6. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff Marc. I was trying to copy and paste it and it wasn't going well!
     
    pontyender, Dec 12, 2021
    #66
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  7. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    I suppose the point is that if it is significantly more infectious then even if it hospitalises a lower proportion of people you are going to see a steeper peak, which could potentially result in a greater strain on hospital capacity than a less deadly strain.
     
    mansfield_red, Dec 12, 2021
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  8. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    p.s. I'm not trying to inject you with a deadly virus that will brick your machine and steal your money. it's just a pdf of a news article.
     
    Marc, Dec 12, 2021
    #68
  9. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    There may 'only' be a small percentage of infections that become serious...but a small percentage of a very high number of infections is still going to add up to a significant amount...and possibly more than the NHS can cope with at this time of year.
     
    pontyender, Dec 12, 2021
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  10. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    There’s a lot we don’t know, which is why just listening to one side doesn’t work, but if the infections are milder then you might see an increase in cases but nothing that should trouble the NHS more than previous Winters and nothing that should cause us to cancel operations for the rest of 2021.

    Can’t believe it’s taken a Tory to show why these ever changing restrictions, and virtually almost always wrong predictions, are so bad for society.

     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
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  11. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    You lost me at Steve Baker. Steve is in favour of Voter ID but not Covid Passes. Even Johnson lies than him.

    Spectators Data Website was funny as **** though tbf
     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 12, 2021
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  12. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    How can you say that it wouldn't trouble the NHS due to it being milder with any confidence? The rate of hospitalisation might be lower, but if the number of concurrent cases is higher due to it being more infectious then the end number of hospitalisations might be higher.

    I'm not saying that I agree with restrictions necessarily, but "it's milder so we don't have to be worried" is ********.
     
    mansfield_red, Dec 12, 2021
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  13. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I tend to judge words and opinions in isolation. What he says about restrictions, modelling, and society is true regardless of what he’s voted on elsewhere. If we dismissed words and views based on what people said previously we’d all be ignored.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
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  14. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I’m speculating just like you are. That’s why I can say it? Not sure what’s so shocking about that when you’re using just as many ‘mights’ as me?

    5% of 30k cases a week or 1% of 60,000 cases a week. Which would you rather have if the virus was mellowing out as suggested it might be?
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
    #74
  15. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Here’s someone slightly more sensible I’d use to back up your
    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2021-12-09/mp-warns-of-civil-liberties-issues-of-vaccine-passports

    You might ignore hypocrisy and lying if someone says something you agree with but others don’t.


     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 12, 2021
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  16. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    As I said, it was more the words I agreed with more than anything else. I’m no fan of any Conservative, but the words resonated with me. I’m not supporting that politician, so his record is irrelevant here, and just that particular opinion. Hope that’s clear.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
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  17. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Yeah It’s the Mussolini and getting the trains running on time argument I get it.
     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 12, 2021
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  18. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    It isn’t that at all. But thanks.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 12, 2021
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  19. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    Except you weren't speaking in hypotheticals, you were saying if it's milder then it shouldn't trouble the NHS. That conclusion doesn't necessarily follow from it being milder, and you implied it did.
     
    mansfield_red, Dec 12, 2021
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  20. Red

    Red Edge Active Member

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    Modelling the weather doesn't change the weather

    Modelling an infectious disease wave, or inflation in the economy, changes policy and behaviour which changes what the future holds. All models are wrong - ask anybody who has done any amount of modelling - doesn't mean they aren't useful now and again.

    One of the many things I find sad about this situation is that the excellent NY times article posted by Marc references a lot of good work by UK scientists to understand this thing but our painfully inept government cannot navigate these waters to put it mildly.

    Summed up quite nicely here



    Boing - time for bed.
     
    Red Edge, Dec 12, 2021
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