Lifting of all restrictions

over history pandemics normally have 3 waves with the 3rd always being the largest and the virus tends to fizzle out after the 3rd wave. However, this one may be different because of the vaccines. Normally when a person gets a virus naturally their body recognizes the complete virus and this is what gives them the immunity to it going forwards - even for new variants. The vaccines are targeted onto the particular spike protein - hence why there will need to be boosters for every new variant type that breaks ranks from the current spike protein. I also think that's why we should be testing people for previous infections before vaccinating them. Will vaccines alter the immunity of those that have already been infected? Still a hell of a lot of unknowns with this thing.

 

I agree it will be difficult to tell the difference but not necessarily for the right reasons. I. The supermarket yesterday I would estimate a third of people weren't wearing masks. A month ago it was rate to see more than 1 or 2 without. In Gregg's the day before there were numerous high vis contractors without masks and one old boy evern stepped right up to me and pulled a pack of donuts out of my hand then stepped right into my face and announced it was fine because he was vaccinated when I asked him to step back. People like that need laws and rules that are enforced not polite advice.

 

I would argue that some things have been enforced enough to prompt people to follow rules through habit i.e. mask wearing. Unfortunately many have taken that as a licence to judge others who don't as 'not doing their bit' when they don't know the circumstances, resulting in people policing each other and an unhealthy holier-than-thou element seeping through the cracks. There is also the social distancing, where some people politely (riskily!) step into the road to afford others some distance, and often receiving no gratitude or even acknowledgement. You then have people like the woman in Sainsbury's petrol station recently who - in an already confined space, as petrol stations often are - screamed at an unsuspecting man nearby 'SOCIAL DISTANCING!!' He basically told her to jog on. There are some places where social distancing is near impossible. Anyway, the govt have done a fine job in promoting people-policing and spreading disdain for our fellow man/woman.

 

Don't worry, the libertarians are already rising to get their retribution. I've just been out to get meds for my wife and was met with multiple looks of disdain that I might wear a mask, wait to let someone through to keep distance, or swerve when someone is oblivious to someone else being close.

Just the new normal for anyone at risk or close quarters to someone at risk.

 

I think it's about manners and respect. Some people don't wear masks for genuine reasons. Some situations don't allow for proper distancing. I don't like how people are so judgemental and rude to non-mask wearers, or non-distancers (when they can't) in those situations. Equally, I don't like those who don't wear a mask or distance just to annoy those that do. People seem to have lost their respect for others when out in public and it's sad to see.

 

If you wouldn’t open up now, then when? When schools are going back? When we’re approaching winter? When Delta becomes completely dominant overseas?

If you listen to Whitty (who with respect, has more than just a biological sciences degree), the consensus on SAGE is that now is as good a time as any to open up.

Of course, this won’t be a full opening up, given the expectation that masks or vaccine passports will be required in certain places (the idea being the unavoidable peak upon opening up will be shallower).

 

What evidence do you have to a suggest that there’s a risk that hospitals will be overwhelmed?
The furthest SAGE have cautioned is that, because it’s highly uncertain, they couldn’t completely rule out hospitalisations returning to January 2021 levels (when hospitals were not overwhelmed). However, their expectation is that hospitalisations will be well below the January 2021 peak.

For anyone who is actually interested in reading the evidence (rather than unsubstantiated opinion) you can find the SAGE papers relating to the relaxation of restrictions below.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ns-roadmap-step-4-on-19-july-2021-7-july-2021

 

Honestly?

June 21st

BUT...

With much stricter rules on distancing, tracing, and PPE than we currently have. Including more guidance and training to both businesses and the general public.

What I wouldn't have done is pushed it back at the last minute and made general statements on getting rid of masks, distancing and track and trace. Only to then backtrack more and more. It wouldn't surprise me if they end up pushing us back again due to this farcical management.

I would have opened in June when cases were low with strict tracking and tracing plus PPE rules and honestly I think we'd have less cases now than we do in the current situation where a huge chunk of people have completely given up on following any of the guidance or rules.

I think these people would have been more likely to accept some restrictions if they were given more freedom in exchange for them such as meeting in larger groups, attending weddings, events etc. Half of summer is nearly gone and we're yet to relax the rules yet cases are massively on the up. It's a great big mess.

For me.. we either needed to relax the rules early but with strict controls and monitoring, or wait for the vaccination program to be complete. I actually think they've chosen one of the worst possible times to open up.

But as you say. I'm knowledgeable but no expert and it's just an opinion.

I must just say it's been refreshing to chat openly on this subject with so many people, without getting into conflict with those of differing opinions.

 

Then you’re completely at odds with scientific consensus. Everyone on SAGE agreed that pushing back from 21st June was required to avoid a significant increase in hospitalisations and deaths because of the lower vaccination rates in younger people. We’re now at a point where there are far fewer people coming forwards for their first doses, and second doses have been brought forwards. There’s not going to be a specific date where it’s “complete”, we’re approaching the end of the vaccination programme already.

Plus, stricter rules on distancing is not reopening. One of the main difference between step 3 and step 4 is the removal of social distancing so places where you couldn’t socially distance could be opened up (eg nightclubs) or capacity limits could be lifted (eg pubs, football stadia). Without removing social distancing, you may as well be still in step 3.

 

I'll just add a little onto this.

The lack of guidance is really unhelpful in business settings too.

I'll cite a very close example that my wife is one of the 3.8 million shielders. Her employer issued a draft communication this week that was worded that they expect people back in the office. They have around 17,000 employees. It didn't mention shielders at all.

Government haven't made any guidance public that I'm aware.

My wife was due to be in the office today. We'd had a lot of discussions and although there were tears and concerns, she was all ready to go in for the first time since March 2020. Had spent time planning a route and time that she felt would eliminate as much risk as possible and taken other precautions, including aiming to double mask with an ffp3 mask beneath.

Yesterday the news came out that 50 people had tested positive in the office just over a week ago and had been traced to a senior management meeting. Which she would have been sitting in today. Social distancing was practiced. No physical contact was noted.

Obviously she hasn't gone in, given her immunity is expected to be circa 3%.

I don't expect the world to stop just for my wifes sake. I completely see other peoples perspectives too. I've plenty of compassion for redstone for example and I don't envy that situation at all, just like mine probably isn't envied either.

I do feel there is an absolute void that the government is simply covering with a rhetoric of common sense and personal choice. I fear for the 3.8 million shielders from Monday. They don't have much choice, nor do they have any guidance.

 

Exactly, I mean did you see that doctor on the local news in Teeside yesterday, scaremongering, saying its already getting much worse by the day and wouldn't take much more to be really bad again AND another doctor agreeing with her!!., I mean what do they know? Just cos they've got white coats, work in hospitals and are medically qualified n stuff!

 

As far as I know from friends working in them local hospitals are pretty much at the ‘normal winter peak’ several months early I’d guess if we trusted the govt we would believe that this is being monitored in real time to assess risks

 

so it's just the Tories who are blustering, what about Labour Wales and the Scots... they have made the same decision, so are they blustering too or is it just the Tories.

 

The politicians will not tell you is that in the NHS we have prepared for the Third wave from end of September.
There will also have to be further restrictions as fatalities rise.

 

Thank-you for the kind words in the middle of that, I do genuinely appreciate it.
Sounds very harsh that your wife was under pressure to return to work especially if her role can be done from home.
Without going over old ground I'll say I do find it awful when people aren't respectful of others.
For example I don't intend to wear a mask in most places if its not a legal requirement. However I also don't intend to impeded on a anyone else's personal space. I have a hospital appointment for my youngest at Sheffield children's on Monday and I fully expect to be wearing a mask and see no problem with doing so.
My workplace have much to my supirse gone above and beyond. We are still full paying anyone who has to isolate even if they can't WFH, shielders who can't work from home have been found roles they can do where distancing is easier to apply.
Most people at my work have given up on distancing and since visors were made optional I would say 95% have ditched those too, but we have a clear message to be respectful of others.
Similarly if i see someone in mask clearly looking to keep a distance ect whatever my uncensored thoughts in my head are I will do the decent thing and give them some space.

 

they haven’t made the same decisions at all.

 

What about that Chris Whitty? He barely even wears a white coat anymore but he reckons the NHS won’t be overwhelmed. What a fool! Or that Patrick Vallance? A Knight of the realm? Pah! Clueless.

Let’s listen to some anecdotal evidence instead from those who have an interest in the NHS being given as much protection as possible. Far more reliable.

 

Not so sure. The problem with cloth masks... there was a tutorial on teh BBC website when it all kicked off,about only handling the elasticated cords and putting the mask in a sealable bag which completely ignored the fact taht to get a proper fit the metal strip on the top edge has to be squeezed at the bridge of your nose to get a close fit otherwise you have two great gaps that allow exhaled air to a) escape and b) completely fog up glasses in cold weather (although they do that anyway). It is nigh on impossible to follow the etiquette in the real world if you are wearing a mask say, for example, working in a shop handling and slicing cooked meats, cheeses etc. Even if they dont handle the money, sanitising their hands after every single transaction and process is really impractical.

On the subject of cash, how many people sanitise notes and coins prior to passing them to others after they have been in pockets, wallets and purses. IMHO most people probably contract Covid from handling items and touching surfaces already contaminated rather than breathing in droplest. Not to say, for one minute masks should be redundant. Whatever the rules and guidance, numbers of new cases in Italy are, like everywhere else, on the rise, not on the scale of the UK though but deaths are not really increasing and hospitals are well within capacity for dealing with day to day stuff. Most Covid hospitals are now closed. Almost every death is extreme age / existing medical condition related.

Handwashing as a magic 'cure all' is like a Brothel testing the 'ladies' weekly for STDs. The problem is the next client after a test may be the one transmitting an infection. Unless you test (wash you hands) every time you touch something (impractical) it is not even close to being 100% failsafe'.

 

Covid doesn’t absorb itself through your skin though so you don’t need to wash hands after every transaction, you need to wash your hands before you touch your mouth, nose or eyes. The mask prevents you from touching the last two anyway so you just have to remember to not rub your eyes until you’ve washed your hands. It doesn’t really matter (I mean it does, but you know) if people keep touching their mask and then touching other things (barring things you put directly in your mouth such as food or utensils) if you follow good hand hygiene yourself. Them wearing a mask prevents air droplets from spreading widely and so others have less chance of breathing it in and if they touch other things after touching it, then anyone worried can still protect themselves by washing their hands before touching their face.

 

Just a sense that cases and hospitalisations continue to rise and instead of checking these with more stringent rules we're letting them go uncontrolled. I might be wrong, I hope I am. But don't make out like I have no right to be concerned after everything we've been through.

And again. My primary concern is that we're creating ideal conditions for vaccine resistance to emerge.

Hospitals were overwhelmed. That's just a fact. People died because of it. Some NHS staff are still in counselling from what they went through.

Since you're keen on evidence instead of 'unsubstantiated opinion':

Taken from: https://associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/anae.15512

"During January 2021, the system was largely overwhelmed. Almost one-third of anaesthesia staff were unavailable, 42% of operating theatres were closed, national surgical activity reduced to less than half, including reduced cancer and emergency surgery. Redeployed anaesthesia staff increased the critical care workforce by 125%. Three-quarters of critical care units were so expanded that planned surgery could not be safely resumed. At all times, the greatest resource limitation was staff. Due to lower response rates from the most pressed regions and hospitals, these results may underestimate the true impact. These findings have important implications for understanding what has happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, planning recovery and building a system that will better respond to future waves or new epidemics."