List of Potential new managers

No you're misunderstanding. My point is that no matter what criteria you use to appoint a manager at that point of appointment it really is 50/50 how it will go. Some great managers at one club, who would tick every box you could imagine, move clubs and fail, and vice versa.

 

If Cryne sees that job description it might at least make him realise what a bad appointment LJ is.

 

The question is , how long will it take ?
Oh and Spackman would still not have had a change in luck, or Hill (at Oakwell anyway).

 

Your argument is that the odds are 50:50 because there are only two possible outcomes. A manager succeeds of he fails.

I would argue that this view is an over simplification for a number of reasons:

Firstly, there is the perception of the observer. One only has to look through this thread to see that to some Mark Robins failed, and to some he succeeded. I started watching Barnsley 50 years ago when they were in the 4th tier of football. This has given me a different perception of success to someone who has been watching the team for say 30 years, and who for most of their watching life, has seen the team play second tier football. I am 64 years old and my age means that I am much more patient than a twenty something whose world works to different rhythms.

Secondly, only one team can win the league and in that respect, only one manager out of 24 can be successful in any season. Three teams can be promoted so 3 out of 24 (1:8) teams can be judged as successful by their fans. However, your judgement as a fan is coloured by expectation, and expectation is governed by what you have been conditioned to expect from your team. Thus the same outcomes can be judged differently by two different sets of fans who had differing expectations. Unfortunately, football clubs need to increase expectations in order to sell tickets in advance. Consequently, there is always a problem in matching expectations with outcomes, especially when the team has lost 8 in a row.

My point about zero managers out of twelve being a success is not a statistical argument. My point is that in the opinion of the fans, and because it is the absent fans who make up the minds of the directors it is the opinion of the fans that really matters, all of those managers failed. It is extremely likely that the next manager will be judged a failure by the fans at some point. The problem is that the fans are taking less and less time to reach that conclusion, and it is getting more and more costly, and less and less logical to keep following their opinion, and blindly expecting a different outcome.

 

I'd agree it was an over simplification, it was said without giving it much thought, a mere observation that no matter what criteria you set to appoint a manager there's as much chance of perceived failure as perceived success.

 

My list was merely an attempt to get those who are calling for the manager to go to think about the problem logically and to assess whether the cost of changing the manager again so soon after the last change was the right course of action.

Unfortunately, it is far easier to keep repeating the same tired mantra, rather than examining the logic of their position. Que sera as they say in France.

 

I'd be intrigued to hear your hopes/expectations for this season and what they are now and what gives you any belief that Johnson can deliver against even the lowest expectations?

 

Our problems this season originate from our failure in the summer transfer window. First of all, we tried to replace too many players at the same time. If you look back through our history, it has always been important to retain the core of the previous team when constructing a new one. Even failing managers' teams have a cadre or a core of decent players, who must be retained. It is my belief that there has been a change in the way that we recruit players, and that the transfers committee was unable to get the all of the players that they wanted in the last window. Consequently, they have been forced to rely upon loans and short term signings to take the team through to the January window. I believe that the loan recruitment of Michael Smith, in spite of the agreement of a permanent transfer fee, is a sign that there was disagreement within the committee, a sign that LJ exercised a veto and a compromise was reached. Whatever the real reasons were that we failed in the summer transfer window, it is clear that it is what happened and it is clear that it needs fixing.

It is my view that the transfer committee will have used the 4 months since the last window to line up permanent signings in January, and that these signings will take us to safety this season and to better things next season.

That is my hope, and I am not prepared to give up on it until the end of the January window proves me wrong. I am tired of the same old solutions and the same tired mantras of failure. Sacking the manager every 12 months has been shown to be a failing policy and it has to stop somewhere. The signs when LJ was appointed indicated to me that the board were sticking with LJ whatever happened.

 

Dario Gradi

 

Flitcroft.

Other than one bad six month period he's done a decent job.

Decent record as assistant manager

1 great escape,
1 promotion
currently in play offs.

Only real alternative to Danny Wilson