Minority Report v Sheffield United

Ah, I must have missed this bit against each statistic. Makes more sense now, as I did wonder how you could have scored v Middlesbrough when you openly admitted you hadn't watched it.

Would you care to share them, or point me to where you have if you have done previously. Curious as to the points v statistic allocation and if any weighting is applied to each stat.

I'd be interested to also know if any base line levels exist to the total score. Ie

0-20 = we may as well played blind folded
50-70 = played reasonably well
120+ = Barcelona esq
Etc

In your words it's to help with debate. I'm certainly not tying to trip you up here. Call it in line with the BBS player of the season votes. That had some debate and slightly tweaked. And it seems (to me at least) that the scoring index on MOM aligns how well a player is playing throughout the season compared to his peers.

 

Before I begin, I have edited the Index section of Minority Report, and I hope that it will placate @TitusMagee, @Super Tyke and all my other critics. If not, the I do not know what else I can do.

I will illustrate how I prepare the numbers by using the Sheffield United game as an example. The statistics are mainly taken from the BBC, but one statistic comes from Who Scored.com.

Entertainment Index Statistics Index
Barnsley United Barnsley United
Yellow Cards (-5 points each card) 0 2 0 -10
Red Cards (-10 points each card) 0 0 0 0
Possession (1/-1 point per 1% above/below 50%) 39 61 -11 11
% Time spent in final third (difference x 1 or -1) 36 26 10 -10
Shots at goal (5 points for every shot) 11 7 55 35
Shots on target (5 points for every shot on target) 4 4 20 20
Goals (10 points for every goal making a total of 20) 2 3 20 30
Corners (1 point per corner) 5 2 5 2
Fouls (-1 point per foul) 6 15 -6 -15

Totals 93 63
Match Score 156

Teams can be awarded bonus points as well, but neither team were awarded any bonuses.

Performance Index 31 -31

I wanted a way of judging from the statistics which was the better team, so basically you take all the scores of one team and deduct from them the scores of the other team, that gives you the best team. Some scores are already deducted in the Entertainment Index, so it is not quite as easy as deducting the total entertainment scores. The higher the score, the more one team was better than the other. As on Sunday, it is possible to lose a game and still have a better performance score.

The statistics show that United had more of the ball, but much of their possession was in their own half. With less possession, Barnsley had more time in the United final third. Where Barnsley gained on United was in the number of attempts on goal they had. United score 3 goals out of 4 shots on target.

Thank-you for your interest.

 

Thanks for that. Just some quick comments. Cards. Why are points deducted for cards? Is that not penalising the teams if there is an overzealous referee?

Similar to fouls. Some referees let the game flow much more than others. So personally I wouldn't include those, though there may be a valid view that a game may be less fluid if its stop start and scrappy. But that would have to be based on robust data to prove that instead of a subjective view.

Other considerations for you... there doesn't seem to be any weighting involved. My personal view is I'd weight the scales based on league differential, form variance and potentially for a team home or away, now that teams are playing in front of crowds again.

I'd likely also include things to create a measure for things such as unforced errors or misplaced passes.

Just a few thoughts, but its your index and your choice as to what you measure.

 

Possession seems to have a ridiculously high weighting. Every 5% possession a team gains affects the score as much as a goal.

 

I was expecting to see inclusion of such as pass attempts and completion.

Granted this could become a lot of work and more complex, but I know that such stats exist.

It certainly has grounds to work in a similar way to the MOM awards.

Makes much more sense now how you arrive at the figures, so cheers @Red Rain

I guess it's something that can help debate now, and not such as how it has been, that you clearly aren't making them up as some comments may suggest

 

I think I said started to write about cards before, but can't remember if I posted it, because the thread it was in had turned into a pile on of Red Rain.
I think a contentious red card can very much add to the entertainment factor of a game, especially if it's spilled over into an on the pitch melee.
But as you said it's @Red Rain 's index and I haven't seen him claim anywhere that his Minority Report or the Entertainment index must be read and respected by anyone else, just that it's something that he does for himself as a way to analyse and compare games.

It would be interesting to apply the Entertainment index to some famous historical games not involving Barnsley to see how it marries up with popular opinion.

 

I decided early on that I would not try to second guess referees. The indexes assume the referee is always right, which we know is not true in practice.

I am scoring games that I have seen, but the great majority of games that I score are games that I have not seen because I score every game. Therefore, there is no room for any subjectivity at all. You may ask why I score all games. I do so because without a comparative, I would not know if the scores for Barnsley are good bad or indifferent. I keep all the resultant data and I have an alternative league table that compares performance to actual results. For Barnsley, their performance is in line with their results, but for United, their place in the performance table is better than their results.

 

A goal is actually worth 20 points because a goal garners 5 points for a shot, second 5 points for a shot on target, and finally 10 points for the goal. United's advantageous possession statistic was wiped out because of our possession in the final third.

 

Whatever measures you chose, there will always be some flaw to it. And just in deciding what you include is the subjective part as you'll knowingly or unknowingly place emphasis on factors that influence you or you think influence you.

I think DS's idea of overlaying that framework to past games is a really good idea if you haven't done it already.

Think of some of your favourite games and ones you've enjoyed most and see what the scores come out as (providing the stats are still available in the public domain). That would be interesting in itself to see what factors were involved in making those games so enjoyable for you and if other factors were at play and could be rolled into your indices.

 

It is a good idea, but if you don't mind, I will leave it to someone else.

 

I've just had a quick google of most entertaining matches ever, and this one was on a list. I'm sure the stats will be available, but it was the game where Mourinho's Inter were defending a 3-1 lead from the first leg and basically just gave a defensive master class. I remember watching it at the time and being so impressed, but I imagine it scores fairly low on the index.

Barcelona 1-0 Inter Milan | Champions League | April 28, 2010

 

I'll see if I can get the stats needed, if you don't mind.
It's not to pick apart your index, just to see how it assesses low scoring but entertaining games.

 

I guess from this angle, you would need to include a tackles\blocks etc into the stats.

As it stands, the defending team would score low. But the attacking team relatively high if they were throwing the kitchen sink etc.

From an entertaining point of view, I would guess your average spectator would see the sink throwing more entertaining, maybe....

I guess the performance side would possibly be skewed a bit in this scenario, especially if like us at Anfield in the cup defended like lions for example.

All subjective, but just wanted to root out how the scores were getting generated rather than question RR himself.

 

It's proving slightly difficult as I can't find the attacking third stats for that game anywhere. But based on the other stats, it's Barcelona 140 Inter -69 with an overall rating of 71. Less than half as entertaining as our 3-2 loss on Sunday.

I think it's difficult when it's the team you support to be subjective, because I might find the sending off of the opposition players very entertaining, but the sending off of one of ours both contentious and aggravating.

 

I'd say the Man Utd vs Liverpool game at the weekend was reflected in the team scores.
Man Utd 43 Liverpool 220 Total Match Score 263



I've got a spreadsheet now to work it out...

 

One more Barnsley 0 - Chelsea 1 last season


Total for the game 191

 

Could you do something like the play off final v Millwall.... which I think most would agree was hugely entertaining! Or the beating of Walsall in the semi finals (either leg)

 

Unfortunately, I can't find historical stats for time in final third, for the 2016 League One Playoff Final, but safe to say as it only increases the entertainment value, that it was a pretty entertaining game by Red Rain's index too.

 

Sorry I missed two yellow cards that narrows the gap somewhat.

 

Season to date

For those who have seen all the games and are therefore in a better position than I am to judge the system, here are the season highs and lows:

Barnsley best entertainment scores -

1. Reading (a) 112
2. Blackburn R (h) 97
3. Sheffield United (h) 93

Barnsley worst entertainment scores -

1. Bournemouth (a) -33
2. Coventry C (h) 3
3. Birmingham C (h) 32

Best opposition entertainment scores
1. Middlesbrough (a) 169
2. Bournemouth (a) 138
3. Millwall (h) 138

Worst opposition entertainment scores
1. Blackburn (h) -5
2. Luton Town (h) 17
3. Coventry C (h) 48

Most entertaining Barnsley game
1. Middlesbrough (a) 210
2. Millwall (h) 198
3. QPR (a) 188

Most Entertaining Championship game
1. Sheffield United v {eterborough U 291
2. Birmingham City v Fulham 278
3. Blackburn R v Cardiff 257

Least Entertaining Championship game
1. Hull C v Bournemouth 42
2. Huddersfield T v Birmingham C 48
3. Barnsley v Coventry C 51

Best Performance - Barnsley
1. Blackburn R (h) 89
2. Luton T (h) 35
3. Sheffield U (h) 31

Worst Performance - Barnsley
1. Bournemouth (a) -154
2. Middlesbrough (a) -122
3. Notts Forest (h) -78

Best Performance / Worst performance - Championship
1. Sheffield U v Peterborough U 205 / -205
2. West Bro v Derby C 191 /-191
3. Luton T v Coventry C 185 / -185