But if Croatia score their first three and Brazil don't then the 4th (Neymar in your scenario) is irrelevant too. I'm saying you maximise your chances by putting your better penalty takers first. I think you're missing the obvious here.
No, I think you are. It's the best total score out of 5 penalties and once you have your 5 takers the only way to structure them to gain an advantage over pulling the order out of a hat is to place the players least affected by pressure in the pressure positions.
Of course it's obvious. You need to get your pens scored at the earliest opportunity. There's no point letting those ,with less ability to score, go first. They are liable to balls it up and then you're knackered. Any other strategy is flawed. And by the way there's very little difference in terms of pressure when you're walking up to take a pen in those conditions. They're all crapping it. No matter what order they go up. Plus the so called bankers often miss anyway. Perhaps because they are under more pressure .
It makes no difference whether you score the first 3 penalties out of 5 or the last 3, you're still scoring 3/5. And no matter what you say Marquinhos' penalty was subject to a lot more pressure than the others.
You're using pressure as the only metric for an effective penalty taker, which isn't the case, and you're assuming the opposition is going to score 4/5 to make the fifth penalty taker the 'important' one. As it was earlier, the fifth taker didn't get a kick.
If the opposition score their first three, and you miss the first two, it makes all the difference. You don't neccesarily got the chance for all five penalties.
But it makes no difference if he goes earlier and gets a kick or misses out. The total score out of 5 is the same, there's just an illusion that it is better. I'm not saying pressure is the only metric, I'm saying that once you have 5 takers susceptibility to pressure is the only metric that, if you can account for it, can be utilised to improve your chances of winning.
You don't get to take the last 3 penalties if you've missed the first 3. You're scoring 0/3. And thus scoring 0/5. And Marquinhos' penalty was not necessarily greater in terms of pressure, but if it was it was because the less proficient penalty takers had already missed.
Theres actually no right and wrong answer to this btw. It’s been debated in the game for decades. Thoughts have always been either load your best takers at the beginning or hold them back. There’s no point having your weakest taker last where all the pressure is though. Having 5 quality, experienced takers is the best answer and Croatia have that, Brazil didnt. Brazil would have still lost anyway.
Nobody has ever said that to me before. Consider this post to be an Xmas card, wishing you and your family all the best!
The best penalty taker should be third or fourth. The least pressurised penalty is first, because there's opportunity for your team to catch up if you make an error. By third or fourth you're more likely to be in a position to win or to be eliminated.
I've actually wanted to feel sorry for Neymar in the past when he has taken a proper whack, and is genuinely hurt. But most of the time its pathetic cheating and there's no wonder why he's such a marked man. Unfortunately he brings it all on himself.
