One Week to Cheltenham

Facile Vega would be about it, to be honest Fonzie!

I think it has become harder to get a tasty one in the book. The winner of the Champion Bumper is automatically short for next season's Supreme, the Supreme winner goes short for the next year's Arkle, and so it goes! I also think the layers have become more defensive on a day to day basis. These days you have to take a selection and hope that BOG gets you to a reasonable price. I've been kicked off BOG by BetVictor, and Skynobet won't offer me a bet. Surprisingly, Bet365 continue to lay me BOG even though the bulk of a largely successful ten years' worth of bets have been with them. I don't bet huge, so in moments of hubris I wonder if they are using me as a marker. But then again, maybe I flatter myself!

Going forward, I fear that the current gambling reviews by government might kill the game off. I operate on a high turnover, low marginal profit basis. Anything else makes the bookies windy. It requires great patience. Hopefully, government will recognize that machine gaming (with inbuilt losing margins) is the real killer for potential gambling addicts. Whereas horseracing or sports betting does involve an element of skill, and an opportunity to select what you play on. We shall see when the white paper comes out this Spring. Depressing, but then there's much worse going on on the world right now!

 

I’d be interested to get opinions on the Gold Cup result.
Galvin looks like being favourite but he is below many in ratings.
Is it a year early for him ?

As yet, I haven’t decided on the winner but opinions gratefully accepted

 

He has the right profile in my opinion. A second season chaser who is improving, had won a grade one over three miles and has festival form already.

Generally speaking, horses that have failed in the race before tend to struggle. Only Kauto Star and Native River have won the race this century after been beaten in it before.

Plenty of horses at the top end of the market have had poor seasons and need to bounce back (Minella Indo as an example).

So I wouldn't put you off.

 

Looking back over recent races, 8 years is the most common winner and Long Run was only 6 !

I would have guessed that age 9 would have been favourite.

Anyway ta for your input … I’m leaning towards Minella but !!!

 

I don't envisage having a bet in the Gold Cup. For what it's worth, I see the winner coming from A Plus Tard, Minella Indo and Galvin. Of these, my slight preference is for A Plus Tard. The going at the moment is Good to Soft. With little rain forecast between now and next Friday, I would expect it to remain on the good side. That may best favour A Plus Tard, whose career best came on Good going at Haydock in November. I am assuming Rachael Blackmore will stay with A Plus Tard, and that can only increase any confidence.

Elsewhere, I have come to the conclusion that Constitution Hill (Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Tuesday) is a quite exceptional horse. His most recent win in a Sandown Grade 1 makes it appear likely that he will be staying on very strongly up the Cheltenham hill.

 

Thanks
Is the young kid who rode Minella last year still likely to stay on this year ?

 

He rides primarily for Gordon Elliott, who has five entered in the race. He has ridden Galvin and Conflated in the past but I would expect Davey Russell to ride Galvin now he's fit again. Rachael will have the pick of the Henry de Bromhead horses, I would imagine.

 

Nothing Helen it’s free to enter

 

JonBon in the supreme
Honeysuckle in the champion hurdle
Champ in the stayers
A Plus Tard in the gold cup
Bob Olinger in the turners novice Chase ‍♂️‍♂️

 

Hope you’re spot on with 4 out of 5.
I’m leaning towards Minella Indo for the big un but will certainly be going on the others, particularly Jonbon and Champ.

 

There's a few at a price in the Gold Cup I fancy. I think it's tricky because it was such a 5hite King George. That race and the one over in Ireland won by Galvin has blown things wide open.

If you ignore Chantry House's run in the King George he'd be bang there.

 

The last two and a half furlongs of the King George were run at 96% of the speed for the whole race. That is despite Kempton being a flat, speedy track. The reason for that would appear to be that Frodon and Minella Indo took each other on, which did neither any favours and they didn't see the race out. The rain had also softened the ground, which made the race more of a stamina test. All in all, there are reasons not to rely on the King George form. Or, as you more prosaically put it Mr D - it was a ***** race!

But I'm not too sure I'd rely on Galvin's Leopardstown form either. Henry de Bromhead's horses were going through a quiet spell at the time. He showed this time last year that he can have his primed for this meeting. In addition, I'd say that if the going is a little quicker that could help A Plus Tard to reverse those placings. Galvin is a strong stayer, but I wonder whether faster going would play to his strengths. Still, I know at least one quiet one on here who will be keeping an eye on him!

As for Chantry House, he'd need to jump a lot better than he did at Cheltenham in January (another strange race) to trouble the best of these.

All in all, with so many questionable form lines and so many of these running in and out over the last twelve months I don't like it as a betting race. But if pushed, I'd nominate A Plus Tard as my idea of the winner.

 

I hope I’m right with all 5 pal

 

Looks like quick going, folks:

Old & New Course: Good, Good to Soft (in places) Cross Country: Good to Soft, Good (in places).

The forecast is dry, but watering may take place if required.

 

Are you going Orsen?

 

Nope. I've been to the November meeting many times over the years but I've never fancied the crowds at the Festival. The TV coverage is superb, to be fair. My on-course visits tend to be mainly to York these days.

 

I can understand that. Last year aside this year will be the first festival I've missed for 12 years but it is full on with crowds - hard work getting a beer and stuff. I now bet online prior to going another wise it's just too stressful racing around and queueing everywhere.

You should go once though. Push the boat out and take Lady Kaht in one of the hospitality areas if you want somewhere to get away from the crowds. The feeling of that first roar on Tuesday is awesome.

 

I cannot stand horse racing.

 

Must admit TM, I've often thought I would love to feel the atmosphere as it all gets under way. But Lady Kaht is more crowd-averse than I am! She will enjoy a drink in the County Stand at York on Musidora/Duke of York (1895) Stakes Day!

As an aside, we were fortunate enough to be at Cheltenham for the Schloer Chase (Sunday) Meeting in November 2015 when Sprinter Sacre came back from injury and won by 14 lengths. I have never witnessed a reception like that for Sprinter, or Nicky Henderson as we did that day. Sometimes, you count yourselves fortunate to have been present!

 

Sky bet doing a promotion up to £10 only on the 13:30 race on Tuesday .
Money back if your horse loses so in effect a free bet .