Only read if you are partial to a BTTS bet..

Me too, I turned a small profit today using nixons green choices. Picked 10 out and did doubles. Just to test the water. Hadn't noticed the facts will look at them too from now on.

Still got my eye on Morton tomorrow too, another tip I got off here, I wouldn't normally bet on Scottish football but my attention got drawn to them by somebody posting on here. Did the double with Barnsley. Can't remember which poster it was. Was gonna dig it out if it comes in.

 

Is there a faq page or owt that explains in a nutshell how its worked out and how beat to use the info?
I like a bet now and again but never done the btts. Be hamsy to have a couple of examples.

 

There is an example http://goals-getter.com/btts-facts/ But because we know what we're doing and talking about we're blind to see what people don't understand..if your confused by anything or something could be made clearer it would be great to know so we can change it. FAQ..good idea..never though of it

 

Some of it is straight forward as i know now but exaplin these for newbies:

BTTS - Full word
What the results mean - 17/19 - 12/19 etc... didnt realise it meant you had got 17 out of 19 right.... obvious now but though it was some odd scoring mechanism.
Some example bets
Doubles
Trebles
Odds to look for

That sort of thing

 

Cheers, hopefully be able to put something in early this week.

 

Hi Nixon. So which betting sites tend to be the best for BTTS?
And, assuming you can typically 70% success with the green selections, what types of bets do you suggest to generally make a profit - doubles, trebles, 4way etc?

 

Betfred usualy but sometime's coral as a number of the "green section games" at 10/11 so it could be better value there .It just depends on whether games are on Betfred bonus coupon etc.

Its like any betting, more more teams you choose the more "risk" you take. As a rule i stick to four/five fold's. On Betfred's long list four folds is 11/2 and five folds is 10/1. On the bonus coupon a treble is 4/1, four fold 8/1 and a five fold 14/1.

I had a four fold yesterday... I choose Peterborough Burnley because they came out the highest calculations to date but they wer'nt on Betfred Bonus and we're 4/7 at coral. I choose Everton, Rotherham and Rochdale games because of they of how the stats came out and an in depth look at head to heads like in post #11 above. Northampton scored with last kick so was extremely lucky, many people on the facebook page had Leeds let them down for 9/10-folds.

 

Excuse the ignorance. Ae you saying Betfred have fixed odds on the long list and bonus coupon irrespective of the seections?

You mention just 3 today. Have you not done the green/yellow/red - do you only do that when there is a full english list

You certainly have got me interested!

 

Yes Betfred price's are fixed but they have two coupons, normal long list, and bonus. The bonus slip have better odds but all the favourite games are taken out. check there website for the break down of prices.

Yes we do the green/yellow/red sections when there are a large selection of games, we tend to leave out Sunday games so the results are settled Saturday, if people wanted them we would add Sunday games to selections..the three today are just facts which we will often do time dependant of spare research time.

 

Hiya mate, I'm finding your system very interesting had a little treble up yesterday which included Northampton so quite lucky. The only criticism is the selections are too small to read for an old duffer like me, any chance of enlarging them.

 

Yeah your not the first to mention this...should be easier on the eyes next week

 

Cheers mate.

 

Out of curiosity, since it started, what has been your total outlay each week, and your total return. Interested to know your weekly profit as a % of your outlay, so give me %s if you dont want to quote actual £.

You know from my time on SM that I can get quite deep into statistics !!!!!!!!! Do you guys need any helpers hehe

 

Personally I'm not a big gambler.. I just enjoy doing the stats, betting on em makes it more interesting.

Week one and two I just had £2 on entire green section. £0 return

Week three I had £5 on a seven fold, Plymouth game let it down. £0 return

Yesterday I had £3 on the ten fold screenshot on the Facebook page (Leeds stenvage let it down for just short of £700). Returned £0
But also I had £7 on Everton, Peterborough, Rochdale and Rotherham games which won me £45.50

Upto date that's £19 out £45.50 in.

What I'v prob learnt is pay a little more on less teams, I was very confident of them four yesterday and it was very close in the end.

 

Just a thought then pal with your above comment ..... Why not had a level of data confidence % against each match. That way your teams Everton, Peterborough, Rochdale & Rotherham should have stood out for all to see? AtTheRaces predictor does this .... Anything above 80% race data on their tips tends to get my interest. (For info AtTheRaces predictor link here.... http://www.attheraces.com/predictor.aspx?ref=rhspromo )

 

Interesting idea...the fours teams you mentioned we're 1st 2nd,6th and 9th most likely out of the calculations to finish BTTS. It was only after we go through the green sections head to head in more details that we come up with the 'facts' (they're in one of posts on page one of this thread) about Rotherham, Rochdale and Everton. Its how to put this into a percentage that could be the problem. Only way round woud be to calculate the percentage of how many of the facts we give are correct against the calculators weekly % for BTTS.

 

Yeah, I'd have to do some number crunching in excel, but i think its pointless going big on anything above about 7/8 selections - its like playing the lottery. You may win big one time if you are lucky. Prob worth £1 max!!!
I am curious to work out whether with say a 65% success rate whether it is possible to regularly get say a 30%+ return by doing numerous 3,4,5 folds.

Or what success rate is needed to break even when all are 5/6. Maybe difficult with variable odds, but should be pretty easy with the fixed odds you mentioned. Might spend a few hours in the week on this. Would you be interested or is this something you can do yourself?

Getting statistical, For instance today I think your three selections came up. Didnt check the odds before hand but say they were all 5/6 (although i think one was a little shorter). Doing 3 doubles and one treble for say £1 if only 2 came up there would be a return of £3.36 (a loss of 64p or 16% of original stake) but if all 3 came up it would be a return of £16.24 (profit of £12.24 or 306%). So, if you are quite confident of predicting 2 out of 3 theres a 16% risk, but get 3 correct and its a 306% profit. So, if you are confident you can usually get a 67% success rate on 3 selections, then you only need to get all 3 correct at a rate of less than once in 19 times to show a net return. Add more selections and the risk will be reduced, but so will the potentiial returns. Which is why i am thinking it should be possible to quantify the expected returns for say 60%,70%,80% selection success rate. Maybe it is possible to get a 20%+ return with a 60% success rate! Hope this make sense and if someone wants to check my calcs and i have made a mistake please feel free to point it out.
@Nixon, maybe you have done all these stats already - what were your findings?

 

Yeah today's treble was 4/5,4/5 & 10/11...

As to your calculations I have not looked at this method but might be worth looking at with the potential favirotes this weekend. The favirotes in my opinion are the teams from the green sections that are backed up with good facts, like the four fold on Saturday. I'm intrigued by your method and would be interested to hear your results from Saturdays fixtures..

 

OK. During the week I'll do some calcs using the longlist odds and bonus odds from Betfred. When you are doing the green list do you pick the best say 13, or do you have cut off. Basically, what i am asking is how do you decide whether the marginal ones go in green or yellow.
My approach to gambling may be a little different to the norm!!! I treat it like the stock market. Spread the risk for a lower, but more gauranteed return.

 

got 4/5 , wasn;t going to bet on bloody stevenage!