Palmer and Moon and a diktat from above

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by pontyender, Jan 23, 2022.

  1. Red

    RedVesp Guest

    It's like winning a million on the lottery and spending every pound of it on more tickets.

    Bonkers.
     
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  2. She

    Sheriff Well-Known Member

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    First thought: Wow, someone has scored fewer goals than we have. Unbelievable, Jeff!
    Second thought: Oh, it's Burnley. Everyone will think it's us anyway.
     
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  3. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Hard to disagree with this isn’t it?

    Trying to remember who the 12 were but Chaplin and Wilks broke even, some have failed, and others are still on the periphery with a chance to come good.

    The big hope is Madds, who if we hadn’t have self exploded this Summer could have been a £6/£7 million sale for us this Summer. More likely to be £2.5m now if we’re lucky.

    I know we got fortunate with the Wigan deduction, but staying up for two seasons has to be included in the thinking rather than just what we sold them on for. Sadly, any thoughts like that can be counter argued by the fact we’ve thrown that positivity away through a negligent Summer.
     
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  4. ronnieGlavinsB@stardSon

    ronnieGlavinsB@stardSon Well-Known Member

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    I don't have a problem using data or youth as drivers within our team. However, we have to be cognisant - as many on here have said before - that there are additional factors that need to be considered such as leadership, game experience and game management. Unfortunately, it seems from recent experience these are being ignored. However, the good thing with data is it's measurable and we're currently bottom of a very poor league which provides some initial conclusions.
    • our data is not very good or/and
    • the people interpreting our data are not very good or/and
    • the people making decisions on our data are not very good
     
  5. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    My worry is that any protests against the owners for very valid reasons (750k, Ownership disputes, threats to leave Oakwell, general incompetant running of the club etc...) would be undermined by what would be at best, unproven theories, such as the board dictating that certain individuals should play.

    If the club's owners have mandated that Jasper Moon plays, then Poya ignored it for 5 games before Helik was injured for the cup game. He's behind Andersen and Helik in the pecking order, and probably on a par with Kitching, who will be ahead of him if we play a back 4, because he's left sided.

    Romal Palmer is out of contract at the end of the season. I'm not sure what difference these appearances will make to any value a tribunal comes up with when he leaves (if we are due one).

    The alternatives are Toby Sibbick, and Will Hondermarck. And to be honest, I would pick both. But I don't know what's gone on with Sibbick as it looks like he's being left out for non-playing reasons. And I've only seen very brief appearances from Hondermarck, and to be honest, for all the eye catching things he's done in driving forward, I'm not sure I've seen him find a team mate with a pass yet. The fact I'd pick him is more an indication of how far we've fallen than how good he's been.
     
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  6. Sca

    Scawsby Red Well-Known Member

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    As always with Conway, this is only a half truth. I presume the 3 players he was referring to selling for £7m are Pinnock, Lindsay and Moore. However, we were not in 'the Third Division' at the time, we were a newly promoted Championship club in need of strengthening. The last thing we needed was selling the 'crown jewels' and replacing with a bulk buy of cheap stuff from Elizabeth Duke.
     
  7. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    Points 2 & 3 are most likely. Particularly when Conway is the one making decisions from it.

    My understanding of 'Moneyball' was that it was less about the resale value of players, and more about players that have the attributes that would fit in well with your team but they are undervalued currently because they don't fit in with with their current team. Carlton Morris is a good example. You then use that to build a team that works together. Unfortunately, we've ripped up 4 years of work to build an identity at the club, which makes the use of data effective. That in turn, makes the value of players increase.

    Also, there needs to be context to the data. Josh Benson probably had a very good pass completion rate, might have shown things like his ability to pick up the ball from defenders and pick a forward pass, same for Gomes. But it was in the PL u23s. Have they looked at other players that have moved from that level to the Championship and the impact on their stats?
     
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  8. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I think on that one you're picking up on semantics and interpretation. Yes we were promoted but as they didn't play for us in the Championship in my mind they've always been sold as part of that promotion season. Others will think differently, but I think there's enough out there to question and focus on that's much more clear cut. We're hardly short of statements and actions that are conclusively false or harmful to the football club.
     
  9. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I feel like the 'Moneyball' tag is a red herring simply because Billy Beane was involved at the start. There was no age limit to Moneyball, and it wasn't about any resale value, it was like you say about bringing in lots of different skill sets and attributes to blend a winning team from players either discarded by other clubs or sitting behind someone in 'the first team'.

    There's nothing unique about our use of statistical analysis to sign players. What is unique to us is this stubborn way of thinking that ignores the team element that made Moneyball such a success. It appears we don't sign players to build a successful team. We sign individuals we believe are talented and will improve, but without any consideration to the team element and what's needed to help them excel.
     
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  10. Andy Mac

    Andy Mac Well-Known Member

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    I think that is a very good article.

    I also still want PMG out.

    Reasons are, I believe their model 'might' work in this country at L1 and L2 level. We may have seen evidence of that already, unless, like last season, it was a one-off. I say that as there is serious doubt in my mind next season is going to be a success in L1. I see more struggle than success.

    The model patently does NOT work in the Championship, arguably one of the most competetive Leagues in Europe. Unless that is, you take it up a notch and tweak according to status, a la Brentford.

    If they are going to work on the age thing, then there is reason to believe their approach may be better suited to their country of origin. USA sport has always been more science / data led. They work on roster systems and draft picks, and after reading the OP article then I could really see their model having data on every college soccer star in the U.S, using the stats to their advantage; the end goal being to get their picks a dream move to Europe. Orlando seem to have beaten them to it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2022
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  11. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    It really is a baffling method. And the worst part is, if they just concentrate on the team, which I think Dane Murphy did (although I don't know how he did on the financial side), then there will naturally be player sales. It's rare that we've not had a player to sell to finance the club going forward. I started watching in 1990, which makes me feel old now, but in that time we've always regularly sold players for decent fees at the time, so we could then bring others in.

    Values of last season's players may have been affected by Covid, but if we were desparate for money we could still have sold Helik, Styles and Brittain for significantly more than we paid for them, just not the sort of value we would've expected.
     
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  12. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I guess we sold Jacob Brown one Summer and then we've had money come in for Struber and Val. Maybe that allowed us to put better price tags on those players in demand? COVID has definitely impacted though.

    Maybe we're not as desperate as some of us think? It is interesting that for all the stick we give out (me included) there's little recognition for the players we haven't sold. Even when we kept Mowatt last January the Playoffs were still a long way off - if we'd have cashed in that would have been the next £750k instalment covered.
     
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  13. lk3

    lk311 Well-Known Member

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    Seems a long time ago now that nearly everyone was predicting Woodrow was definitely leaving and out of blue he signed an extension.
     
  14. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Woodrow has been leaving every window since he joined. There was absolutely no chance these owners wouldn't cash in on Mowatt, both in the Summer and in January. And there was definitely going to be a fire sale this Summer and January.

    In the know rumours shared as facts. We've also closed the Academy.
     
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  15. Red

    RedVesp Guest

    I still think that Woodrow would have gone this window if this injury hadn't cropped up. Still might, maybe?
     
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  16. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I don't think anyone can say that with real conviction. Possibly though. With Helik being out of contract the Summer after this one then he's just as likely to have been moved on too but that doesn't look like happening right now.

    I think moving Oulare off the wage bill has been the #1 priority this window. Hopefully that happens and then like dominoes we get three new players in.
     
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  17. Harry Hough

    Harry Hough Well-Known Member

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    THey might know a lot about money but they appear to know diddley-squat about football!
     
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  18. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    I hope they're not all double- blanks.
     
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  19. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    I’d got my hopes up with the Willem II interest, but it’s unlikely according to the YP.
     
  20. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    This is a good point, and for balance i think we should say that we did keep hold of Mowatt and bring in Dike to give ourselves a shot a promotion.
    Again for balance the last time we were faced with that choice we sold Hourihane and Winnall.
     
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