Russia invades Ukraine

Sickening news this morning about the young mother and baby dying in childbirth. They did an emergency c-section but both perished.

 

There will be many casualties given the indiscriminate shelling the Russians are deploying. I read earlier some Ukrainians have reported executions in the smaller villages while any forms of communication (despite no electricity) are being systematically being destroyed.

 

I see this morning Qatar are meeting with the Russians and having a joint press conference, you’d have thought they would be keeping a low profile until after the World Cup

 

Russia is infiltrating media reports too.

 

Today, the Russian Ministry of Nonsense is claiming that "the US and the EU are trying to tempt the Russians to attack major population centres in Ukraine."

I mean, what do you even say to that?

 

We were just Matadors holding a red rag to a steaming Bull.

 

Some big events have happened over the weekend ( if you believe what you read)
Putin is accepting 16,000 of Bashir al Assad's Syrian forces.
Russia have been threatening a landing on the south coast to threaten Odessa, one of the capital ships vital to the invasion hit Ukraine with a long barrage of rockets, Ukraine hit back with an anti ship missile, the barrage stopped, the ship still being on fire two days later. Whilst it doesn't necessarily put the landings off, it does make them a lot more risky.
Ukraine claim.... that Russian forces have pulled out of Irpin ( a key town on the road to Kyiv ) after heavy losses and retired to defensive positions.
...........................they've made a successful counterattack in Mariupol.
Possibly the biggest development, and it's now being reported from serious publications and media is that Putin has approached China for both weapons and economic assistance. Some are saying that China have turned him down flat saying that the Chinese are briefing that they do not want to escalate the situation.
Obviously you need to view almost everything with a certain reserve, but what is interesting is that Russia's social media apologists are either not denying much of this. or alternatively making very clumsy attempts at highlighting tiny Russian positives. They've gone from a daily outpouring of glorious Russian advances, to highlighting the capture of an odd Nlaw or Javelin missile.

 

I must admit, one thing that does seem evident is that Russia is in no shape to threaten multiple fronts of Europe with traditional warfare given how it has clearly struggled against a much smaller equipped country.

In some ways, that heartens me. In others, it fills me with absolute dread as to what Putin might do instead.

 

I agree.

 

What do you make of this one?

 

On a very slightly positive note, it's being reported that there is a little bit of room to negotiate between the Russian and Ukranian diplomats.

 

The chief of Russia's National Guard has said Moscow's military offensive in Ukraine is not going to plan, Reuters is reporting.

 

Unfortunately this is what we expect their plan B to be.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=3541264#liveblog-body

 

I find it pretty terrifying.

This "special operation" has been nothing short of an embarrassment for Putin, he's largely been black balled by the global community and some economists are saying that the sanctions alone will set Russia back 50-100 years, effectively making them a third world country.

An isolated, embarrassed, third world leader with access to the world's largest nuclear arsenal.

 

Seems as though there is some movement in public opinion in Russia.
Not convinced it's enough to change Putin's mind though.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...31ad2c980bea49f4b7cc09&pinned_post_type=share

 

Putin has overplayed his hand here, Ukraine will never surrender and you are probably going to need over half a million troops plus to take over a country as large as Ukraine which Russia haven't got - Putin "negotiates" Ukraine never joining NATO which is what he actually wanted from the start, then goes back to Russia convincing himself he has won and trying to convince the Russian people the same. - I can see this playing out before Russia ends up in a real financial mess which is a distinct possibility.

 

While he may negotiate Ukraine never joining NATO, I think it may facilitate a fast track into the EU for several former soviet states.
Reparations for the destruction of Ukrainian cities and war crimes trials may well combine to see massive political upheaval in Russia in the coming years.

 

I don't think the western European members of the E U are remotely interested in fast tracking Ukrainian membership. They were a bit of a basket case in terms of economic stability and were mired in rampant corruption before hostilities broke out and I very much doubt Germany, France etc are interested in bailing out one or more new members.

 

Another senior Russian Officer killed yesterday, a Major General, commander of a large assault unit near Mariupol.
Ukraine now claiming to hold over 1000 Russian POW's.

 

What a legend Arnie is. He knows how to use his status for good.