Score predictions - Bolton home - Play Offs

Red-Taff. · May 2, 2024

0-0 ( Friday)

0-1 (Tuesday)

djtone · May 3, 2024

I said 1 all with a 2.1 away win
COYR

PinballWizard · May 3, 2024

Trying not to be completely defeatist, but can't see past a convincing Bolton win. 3-0 at least. It'll be 2-0 at half time. We're not good enough this year I'm afraid and there'll be no shame in losing to a better team. I'm sure the lads will give their best though.

thomasevans · May 3, 2024

Archey said: ↑

Fun fact, this is meeting 9 and 10 between Barnsley and Bolton, since the Wanderers fans sang "we'll never play you again" at Oakwell in 2018. Neither side has faced any other side more since then.

As if it was ever in doubt, the Reds have secured a play-off berth for the second consecutive season for the first time ever. And for the second consecutive season, we face Bolton in the Semi-final. This time, it's the Trotters who had a sustained tilt at the top 2, but ultimately came up short. Having finished 2 places higher than last season (and the Reds, 2 lower), they're the 13/8 favourites to return to the 2nd tier for the first time in 5 years. The reds are 9/2 outsiders to overcome our poor form coming into the play-offs and avenge our Wembley defeat from last season.

On the night, Bolton are 5/4 favourites to go back to the UniBol Arena with a lead, whereas the Reds are 11/5 outsiders to repeat the home win they garnered in the home leg of the play-offs last season. Our record at home in play off campaigns is played 5, won 2, drawn 0, lost 3, scored 5, conceded 4. Bolton's away record in the play-offs is worse. They've played 7, won 0, drawn 2, lost 5, scoring 10, conceding 17.

Bolton finished the season with the 5th best away record. They only won 1 of their last 8 away games of the season, which is a run including their 2-2 draw at Oakwell. They drew 3 of those games by at least a 2-2 score line, and suffered a very heavy defeat at Blackpool (albeit with 10 men) suggesting they can be got at defensively. They have struggled against sides in the top half on their travels; a 1-0 win over Lincoln and 4-2 over Wycombe are the only away wins they've secured over sides in the top half. In contrast, the Reds have only managed wins over 4 top half sides at home, and only Derby in the top 6. We only had the 12th best home record in the division.

Historically, our recent record against Bolton at home isn't great. Our last regular league victory over the Whites at Oakwell was our first ever Premier League home win, and came courtesy of Georgi Hristov and Eric Tinkler, with a Peter Beardsley equaliser in between. We actually beat Bolton twice at Oakwell that season, with Darren Barnard also a match winner in the FA Cup. Despite Liam Kitching's winner last season in the Play-Offs, we've actually gone 8 league games without a home win over the Trotters. Although prior to 2001, we'd won 9, drawn 6 and lost just 2 of the 17 meetings since 1899, in all competitions, including 4 consecutive wins between 1972 and 1988.

Both Deon Charles and Ricardo Santos should be available for Bolton on Friday. The former missed the home clash between the two sides, whereas the latter missed the earlier clash. They're arguably Bolton's best players. Charles has netted 14 times this season in 33 games, though he has missed a good chunk of the second part of the season. The Trotters patchy second half season form could be attributed to Charles' absence. Aaron Collins has hit form however since signing in January. 8 of his 11 league goals have come in the White of Bolton. He's currently on a run of 6 in 6 including a hattrick against Reading at the start of April.

Referee Will Finnie visits Oakwell for the second time this season, and his third Barnsley game overall. He oversaw our exit from the EFL Trophy at Bradford, dismissing Jack Shepherd on that occasion. He was in charge for the Reds 2-1 home win over Carlisle; a game notable for the poor performance from the home side, saved by a late penalty awarded in our favour. He's also taken charge of Bolton twice this season, both games at the UniBol. He oversaw their 3-0 win over Lincoln on the opening day of the season, and subsequently the Trotters 2-1 home win over Wycombe in February; on that occasion, both sides score in injury time, with the Chairboys goal being via the penalty spot.

I'm struggling for optimism ahead of the play-offs considering the poor form we've experienced. I think it's vital that we don't lose at home. If we're going to stand any chance of making it past Bolton, we can't trail by more than one going into the second leg at worst. I'm going to plump for an optimistic selection nonetheless, and go for 2-2 with Phillips getting a brace.
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I am actually hoping that we lose tonight by just one goal and I am not bothered if it is 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, or so. Why? The psychology of the second leg. If we go into the second leg knowing that only a win will do, that will be our attitude. Bolton will be more cautious to try to protect the one goal lead and may be more defensive and nervy. Amazing how many second legs have been won by teams who lost the first leg narrowly (viz us v Huddersfield) - I know that Wednesday last year was an exception, but it still proves the point. If we draw tonight, both teams will have everything to play for in the second leg and it will be like a one match final. If we win tonight, the boot will be on the other foot and it will be us being cautious in the second leg (and we are not good at caution) and Bolton who will know that they have to win. It is a strange hope, but one based on some evidence from past semi-final play offs.

Score predictions - Bolton home - Play Offs

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Score predictions - Bolton home - Play Offs

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