Stones to Man U?

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board ARCHIVE' started by nbuk, Jun 13, 2015.

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  1. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    Where have I said it's a sure thing? I clearly stated it was a method (and specifically not a system). Thanks for looking out for me though (*rolls eyes*).

    So if they do always get the results right then you can't lose on accas (albeit unlikely)? Finally we are getting somewhere.

    I'm off to spend some of my short term variance now.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
    #81
  2. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    No, I was saying that if you somehow knew what every result was going to be then you couldn't lose on accas. Bookies making a team odds on does not mean that team is guaranteed to win. Nor does the team winning/losing mean the bookies got it "right" or "wrong."

    They offer odds based on the likelihood of a team winning. So if they offer odds of 1/6, it means that they think that if the 2 teams played the match an infinite number of times Team A would win slightly less than 6 out of 7 of those matches (I say slightly less because of course odds offered by bookies will be shorter than what they consider the true probability to be). On any one match the underdog may win, but as that is going to happen 1 in 6 times anyway it doesn't mean the bookies odds were wrong. If I offer you even money on a coin flip being heads and it comes up tails it doesn't mean that my odds were wrong.

    As an illustration, let's take 3 hypothetical matches. Bookies estimate the true odds to be 1/6, 1/8 and 1/10. They offer odds to punters of 1/8, 1/10 and 1/12. If you put a pound on an accumulator at the odds offered you will make 34p profit.

    The true odds of the accumulator succeeding are 6/7*8/9*10/11 = 0.69, or 69%

    So 69% of the time you will win 34p and 31% of the time you will lose £1. The expected value of the bet is therefore (0.69*0.34)+(0.31*-1) = -0.075.
    This means that you rate to lose 7.5p on the bet. The most likely outcome may be that you win the bet, but it's still a losing bet. If you make this bet 5, 10 or even 20 times you might be in profit, but if you make it enough times the variance will smooth out and you will have lost 7.5% of your total stake.
     
    mansfield_red, Jun 16, 2015
    #82
  3. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    He's more likely to stay where he is, I'm expecting him signing a new 5 year deal in July/August, so that 4/7 Everton to be his club after the transfer window is looking quite appealing to me
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
    #83
  4. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    He signed a new contract last summer didn't he?
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
    #84
  5. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    Yeah and he still had 4 years to run on his old one at the time, they rewarded him with a improved contract for his improvement as a player was the line at the time, it's since transpired FCBarcelona were sniffing around so they'll have upped his wage to keep him and I think they'll do the same again if this speculation as any truth in it.
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
    #85
  6. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    I honestly think they'll be looking to sell if they can get the mooted £32m+. They can't afford not to.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
    #86
  7. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    His stock will continue to rise the longer they hold on to him, they paid just a little less then that on one player last season, I think the only way they'll sell this summer is if Blackett & McNair are thrown into the deal
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
    #87
  8. Red

    Redsnut Well-Known Member

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    And stones will say get stuffed I don,t want to sign a new contract.
     
    Redsnut, Jun 16, 2015
    #88
  9. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    Even if they increase is wage by 100% ?
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
    #89
  10. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    That'll put him on about 25% of the salary a city/united/chelski will pay him.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
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  11. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    But dose he want to play for them ? Or is he waiting to retire in Spain for 10 years ? He might even get 15 years at the top out there.
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
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  12. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
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  13. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    He's a United fan. It'd be his dream move.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
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  14. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    Is he ? When did he say that ?
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
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  15. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    In a few interviews. Someone on here who knows him well confirmed it too.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
    #95
  16. .:Tyke:.

    .:Tyke:. Banned Idiot

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    Which interviews are these then, I've kept a close eye on his interviews, and never seen anything about who he supports
     
    .:Tyke:., Jun 16, 2015
    #96
  17. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Everton can't afford to turn down decent money for him and he's going to win **** all playing for Everton. They'll snap Man U's hands off.
     
    Gordon Owen, Jun 16, 2015
    #97
  18. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    When he first joined Everton. I seem to remember one on telegraph website.
     
    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
    #98
  19. RichK

    RichK Well-Known Member

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    RichK, Jun 16, 2015
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