Do you really think it won't escalate if Ukraine are forced to surrender? You think Russia will decide they're happy with what they've got and stop? Or do you think they'll start to regroup ready to take the rest of Ukraine and the Baltics etc?
The only way Putin's Russia will stop is if Russia somehow overthrow Putin and shift to a truer democratic model. There is no guarantee that will happen upon Putin's exit/death. The horror Russia has historically imparted on Eastern Europe is hard to comprehend and often gets overlooked given what Nazi Germany did. We shouldn't downplay what Russia does from our comfortable island location, or be ignorant to the threats Europe faces at the hands of a tyrant.
Having watched this nightmare fuel for the past few weeks, I'm still undecided whether America has gone totally insane and isolationist or whether this is all the Ivy League tech bros stage-managing internal conflicts and "gaming the system". If they wanted other NATO countries to up defence spending, what better way to do it than the events of the past week? They've got what they want. Again. Only those ar5eholes would be callous enough to do it by gambling with millions of lives.
Here’s my guess as to where it’s going. Zelensky will be forced into some agreement where Ukraine gives up land in the East. There will be an election (Russians have already demanded this). Trump gets his share of the rare earth spoils from Putin. The war is over and the west breathes a sigh of relief. As is the rule in Soviet/ Russian elections, the Russian backed candidate will get 90-95% of the vote. Trump will be happy at this victory for democracy. The Ukrainians won’t. Given Ukrainain armed forces will still be active, they will be branded ‘terrorists’ by Trump and Putin. Understandably the new ‘Ukrainian’ Government will call on the Russian army to take on the terrorists and restore ‘peace.’ Once there they will not leave. Unseen by the west (who won’t really care and even if they did, couldn’t do anything) the arrests, deportations, torture, rape and imprisonment will be well under way. Ukraine will be a Russian vassal state - which means Russia has a new border in the west. Now there’s nothing the peace-loving Russians want more than ‘friendly’ neighbours (i.e. under their control) on their border. But Poland and the Baltics are distinctly hostile. Not only that, Poland is in NATO. This is a direct existential threat to Moscow. And so we go on…. Putin has no need for nukes. Lies, deception and a new partnership with another totalitarian state will do the trick.
I think there's some truth in that if things pan out. They may not pan out like that though - still depends on European and US response. That's still unclear.
What we're seeing isn't appeasement mate, it's worse, it's alignment. The Kremlin are now saying that the USA under Trump is aligned with their thinking.
I know, I was pointing out how stupid it is for people to pretend the "anti-war" side of this is to allow him to take Ukraine and pull all funding that's stopping him.
The war or invasions been going over 3 years now world war 1 only lasted 4 and half. Like said we've been hearing Russia are struggling they will be defeated in weeks for the past 2 and half years. Why now to up the help to Ukraine? We kept hearing of the 20 billion pound black hole but we are able to find money for this. I'm always anti war in this day and age.
the argument with Zelensky was to further undermine his position as president - trump bears a grudge and wants him out
Allowing Russia to keep part of Ukraine and regroup is the opposite of being anti war. That's guaranteeing World War 3 in a couple of years.