The first 100 days after the first case in various epidemics since 2000

What I want is the following:

1) Widespread testing so that we can understand the extent of spread so far and get proper data to understand the severity against each demographic of the population. The fact we’ve got so many arguments on here shows that no one really understands that at the moment. And without that it’s impossible to make good decisions.

2) Death reporting consistent with every other type of death reporting we’ve ever had before, instead of this ridiculous ‘died with’ instead of ‘died of’, which again causes more of the impact in 1) above.

3) A Sweden model where those not in the higher risk groups are able to work and try and keep the economy afloat at some level and keep tax revenues going to fund the NHS, whilst we put in more stringent practical and economic help for - as well as controls on - those individuals in higher risk demographics.

I’m not pretending people aren’t going to die, but if we’re going to avoid a situation of martial law then at some stage people are going to need to change their attitude to having some risk, just like they do when they get in a car, or have sex with someone, or go to a football match after foregoing the opportunity to have a jab during flu season.

Now I’ve answered - let me turn it round mate - what do you want? If the answer is lock everyone up until the whole thing goes away then my contention is you’re going to cause ill health and death 20 fold to whatever Covid really causes. We’ll no doubt probably be OK, with savings and nice houses and all that stuff, but millions upon millions won’t be.

 

Ok
1) Yes I’m all in favour of much more testing, but if you think it’ll mean we can go back to normal overnight, you’re wrong - testing should lead to wiser choices.

2) the death reporting isn’t as you suggest, the wording is quite specific. The way some describe it suggests that people are getting hit by busses, or falling off ladders and if they’ve tested positive they count. The reality is that you’re only counted if you’ve been tested and are receiving treatment in hospital. I appreciate that might include a few people on deaths door who happen to catch it at the end of their life. But that needs to be tempered with the hundreds dying in care homes, or just at home.
3) we’ll have to wait and see how the Sweden model pans out, but without testing it’d overwhelm our NHS very quickly.

And to turn it round, the government plan was never for lockdown to last until there’s a vaccine - but to be in and out of lockdown to manage the cases as appropriate.

 

FWIW I also agree deaths in nursing homes should be in the stats.

 

Right, so we need tests and tests that show who has had it. I’d be happy with Covid Passports for a period. If you’ve had it then you can either go back to work or help key services etc to make sure we are still manufacturing, delivering food, supporting the emergency services.

We will need to come in and out of lockdowns during periods of the next 18 months until we get a vaccine or a way to treat people and return them to full health.

Back to your points, you still seem adamant that this only effects old people and people with underlying health issues, when it’s clear across the globe it doesn’t. If we allow this virus to spread across the nation then significant amounts of healthy people are going to die. This isn’t a slight risk, and to compare it to shagging, or going to the football is actually pretty disturbing.

How do you think the NHS will cope with 1000s of people with Covid turning up and what do you think the impact will be on every other person who needs the NHS. On current numbers which are being squashed because of social distancing many emergency surgeries have been cancelled like organ transplants etc. They’ve dropped over 90% already.

Where is the data to suggest that being in lockdown intermittently is going to create 20x more deaths than covid? That’s just mathematical nonsense at this point to scare people.

At this moment and because of how widely spread it is in the UK we need to sit tight at least until we can blanket antibody test the country.

 

I think the big problem with the debate on here is that lots of people are trying to be measured and considered and try and look at the evidence and broader impact *whilst* following all government guidance.

Then people who are really worried are attacking that group because they're (perhaps rightly) concerned that unless the message is about the worst case scenario then some people will ignore the government guidance.

The first group then get annoyed because they are following that guidance.

Personally I think the message from government should be as measured and as accurate as possible, not tailored to numpties. But I understand the alternative view.

I'm heavily involved in the COVID_19 response and have been redeployed within a major local authority from my usual role as Head of Regeneration. It's keeping me up at night how we ensure we get food and medicine to the most vulnerable. My wife's a head teacher and keeping her school open and checking in daily with the at risk kids is keeping her up night. Making sure our lovely little 7 year old is safe and happy is keeping us both up at night.

There's loads of usually balanced and reasonable people on here who are obviously really scared. But everyone is, and we will deal with it in different ways. Just try and empathise and support each other, the BBS community is hugely important to each of us at this time.

 

But again - the number is exactly what it says it is.

And we’re not testing people unless they have serious symptoms, it’s beyond ridiculous to suggest that we’re creating an inflated figure including people who died of other conditions.

The reality is that it was the easiest metric for them to produce with a level of certainty. Even then it’s been tweaked once already .

 

You keep talking about people falling off ladders and getting run over by cars, but that simply isn't the point that's being made. Someone killed in an accident would not be tested for Covid-19. However, at anyone time in the UK, there are literally thousands of people on deaths door. Thousands. People in nursing homes, hospices, hospitals and at home. People with severe underlying health conditions. People who will make up the vast majority of the 600,000 people who die every year in the UK. If these people test positive for the Coronavirus they are included in the Covid-19 death figures and that number is significant.

This is not an argument one way or the other on how we should deal with the current situation. It's just what's happening. It does not happen when reporting on other infectious diseases, only in epidemics.

 

Back to procedures
Only people severely ill with Covid 19 type symptoms are being tested. We’re not randomly testing people who’ve died from cancer so we can add them to the list.

so all those thousands on deaths door aren’t getting near these numbers, and it’s odd you bring up those at home and in nursing homes - because they’re definitely nowhere near our mortality statistics. No matter whether they die off Covid 19 or cancer even if they have Covid 19.

 

I haven't mentioned anyone being tested after they have died. People with severe underlying illnesses who display symptoms of Covid-19 are tested for the disease and included in the Covid-19 death figures. You can try to twist this in as many different ways as you like, but the point I made and that has been made many times by many people remains a fact and the numbers are significant.

 

But they have to have severe symptoms - of a disease that’s a known killer.

the fact you believe the number is significant? What can I say, it’s a complete guess and unless you have a body of evidence I’ve missed, I don’t know why you expect us to believe your assertion?

 

I honestly don't think we'll ever have a definitive number of those who've died due to Covid-19. Due to the lack of testing. The figures will have caveats, *attributed to, *directly attributed to.

Either way it'll take a few years to calculate and a lot of whereaboutary by the political classes.
History won't be kind, but by then those in charge of this will be either dead, in a retirement home or the House of Lords.

 

If someone is being treated in hospital for cancer and they're dying and they start displaying symptoms of Covid-19 they have to test them and be moved, isolated and treated by nurses wearing protective equipment. Same for anyone extremely ill with other diseases.

And it's not me saying that large numbers of those dying with Covid-19 have underlying health issues. It's those reporting the deaths. You may have heard them. You can also look at the figures, so no it's not guess work.

 

You appear to be hearing the phrase ‘underlying health conditions’ as ‘and were about to die’.

like many others, there are people in my family with ‘underlying health conditions’ that Covid 19 would definitely finish off, but I’m expecting anything from 10 to 30 years of life for each of them.

 

Head of Regeneration- perhaps you’re old job title is the answer, find a way to regenerate(Dr Who style) and then the deaths don’t matter.
In all seriousness though you’re probably right

 

No I'm not. I was very sceptical about that phrase when I heard it and posted as much on here. I've since spoken with someone who is a manager at a hospital and put forward my concerns, saying there's hardly anyone without underlying health conditions. For instance I'd probably be said to have them as I take antidepressants. I was patronised a bit for my lack of knowledge on the subject and told that wasn't the case. Anyone included in that phrase, which appears to be a catch all, were those with extremely chronic or terminal illnesses.

 

While government response to this certainly should be scrutinised I still think
Herd immunity is inevitable, either through natural infection numbers, or mass vaccination, it’s just a question of which comes first.
I think it will be the former not the latter.
The number of people who are going to have lives cut short by this is horrible. Unfortunately the wheels are now in motion and all that can really be done is to try and limit them as best we can.
The more realistic short/mid term hope is improvements in treating the illness as vaccine is so far off.